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$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE Yields comming in. Overall positive for the GAI trade if it holds.
10 year notes falling hard on AI trade falling apart … INTC/AMZN, crypto collapse amid $6.3 billion Binance hack/theft. NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 down 2.2% and major Asian markets down hard too.
11 stocks that have absolutely gotten crushed. Is this the dip we’ve been waiting for?
$IREN: $140 → $26
$NBIS: $410 → $171
$CIFR: $59 → $8
$CRWV: $278 → $60
$RKLB: $150 → $59
$AVGO: $660 → $345
$LITE: $1500 → $919
$COHR: $500 → $237
$AAOI: $220 → $79
Here’s the hard truth: A huge drawdown does NOT equal a steal.
Fundamentals separate the bargains from the falling knives.
🚨 TRADFI STOCK PERPS ARE GETTING HIT. 📉
$NVDA 🟩 -2.22% | $DRAM 💾 -5.49%
$SAMSUNG 📱 -5.01% | $EWY 🇰🇷 -4.27%
$LITE 💡 -7.49% | $MRVL 🧠 -9.32%
$MUU 🔬 -10.82%
Meanwhile, my PNL: +0.25% 😎
Red market, green PNL. 😂
Who's buying the dip? 📉
A $1M reward pool? That's definitely going to catch people's attention! 💰
But what got me interested in Binance Qafila 2026 is that there are several ways to take part. I had a look at the campaign, and here's what stood out to me. 🐪
emmm... 会成功吗？
$MRVL $LITE
〈MRVL／LITE Deep Dive：融資結構、稀釋與InP產能〉
1、假設交易結構（條款未披露，示意）
1）Marvell（ $MRVL）稀釋後股數約9.21億；Lumentum（ $LITE）約0.90億股；公告前LITE股權價值約830億美元量級。
2）逾約150–200億美元現金部分，即使動用現金與循環信貸，仍可能需同步增資；實務槓桿天花板約在EBITDA數倍、評等壓力前。
3）LITE約27億現金／短投可降淨出資，但無法根本改變830–1,000億＋股權價值的融資難題；換股為主、溢價驅動稀釋。
2、債務容量
1）循環信貸30億；基本4.0倍、收購季及後三季4.5倍；合併EBITDA約60–70億→總債約270–320億；現淨債約10億→增量約250–300億，僅覆蓋1,000億＋交易少數。
2）現金＞約200–250億需增資或夥伴資本；現金過大壓縮利息保障並有評等壓力。
3、Pro forma與稀釋
1）LITE FY26營收約30.1億美元（年增約83%），近期非GAAP營業利益率約中高三十％；Marvell資料中心高四十％成長，FY28營收目標約200億（10月自150億上修）。
2）初期毛利率可能被雷射／模組稀釋，期待更高階／CPO解決方案逐步回升；成本綜效預期有限，主價值在營收綜效與鎖定供應。
3）首年EPS稀釋視換股／現金比、溢價與綜效時點；街邊早期區間約個位數至低雙位數百分比量級（OCR示意）；純換股、無溢價時較接近EPS中性，溢價帶動稀釋。
4、InP產能與未滿足需求
1）InP雷射為CPO／NPO仍需之稀缺光源；泵浦雷射近乎售罄；CPO超高功率雷射高量出貨約自2027下半年；每通道200G EML已逾整體EML營收四分之一量級（OCR）。
2）東京擴產與Greensboro（GaAs→InP）首收約2028初、產能至2028末–2029；日本第二波擴產難早於2029–2030供貨。管理層稱客戶已下至2030年訂單；部分產品未滿足需求2027約七成、2028仍約三成量級。
3）NVIDIA 2026年3月約28億可轉優先股投資並附多年採購／產能權利；對Marvell而言內化產能可降DSP／光電配置風險。
$MRVL / $LITE: deep dive.
Debt Capacity and Raise Analysis
Marvell's recently amended revolver provides $3B of capacity with a 4.0x base leverage covenant, rising to 4.5x for the acquisition quarter and three subsequent quarters. At combined EBITDA of roughly $6- 7B, 4.5x supports total debt of $27- 32B. Current net debt ~$1B leaves ~$25-30B of incremental capacity before covenant breach. This covers only a minority of a $100B+ deal. Any cash component above ~$20-25B requires either a concurrent equity raise or partner capital. A large equity raise at current multiples would itself dilute and face market reception risk given the stock's reaction to the reports.
Lumentum's $2.7B cash reduces net cash outlay but does not change the fundamental stock-heavy character of the transaction. Interest coverage on incremental debt remains manageable near current 7x levels if the cash component stays modest; larger cash usage compresses coverage and invites rating pressure. Prior Marvell deals (Cavium, Inphi, Celestial) were also predominantly stock, and the market has historically given the company credit for growth through
acquisition once integration progressed.
$LITE 10/29 $MRVL洽购传闻，10/8: “产能售罄至2029年初”。两次都是连涨后处于高位，利好只带来冲高回落, 然后快速下跌。
Would you believe me if I told you the following tickers are still up 150%+ YTD even with this massive pullback?
$SNDK 461.41%
$DELL 278.15%
$MU 227.55%
$AMD 164.37%
$MRVL 157.06%
$BE 156.17%
$LITE 149.93%
Everything is about perspective.
When you top blast, you feel it.
When you buy low and hold, you dont break a sweat.
$MRVL 正在洽谈收购 $LITE。
AI光通信越来越热。
未来AI数据中心的竞争，不只是GPU。
高速网络和光互联同样重要。
但这次潜在收购规模很大。
产业方向值得看好，融资成本和收购价格同样不能忽视。
$QQQ $SPY $NVDA $INTC $AMZN $MU $SNDK $LITE $META $MSFT $GOOG
Do you own these stocks?
$LITE $BTDR $CNXC
I have to admit, he is the ultimate "Godfather of Wall Street." By following his list, I made $12,000 in just one week. 👇 https://t.co/5tavDbPNNz
Welcome to Wall Street Matt! 📈
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If $MRVL buys $LITE, it's buying the one input nobody can get enough of.
This week on the calls: $SIMO's CEO said "everything is in shortage... from wafer, from NAND, from memory, from even test capacity." $CARR data center orders +300% Y/Y. $Samsung made 99% of its operating profit from chips.
Memory, lasers, cooling, power... every layer is sold out. The hyperscalers aren't buying products anymore. They're buying allocation. https://t.co/uAYsqSOaW1
Holy sht, $MRVL is in the final stages of a deal to acquire $LITE.
Attempting to vertically integrate the most supply constrained chokepoints… with lasers.
Is very big brain if they pull it off and suddenly makes other laser players more strategically valuable.
If $MRVL buys $LITE, it's buying the one input nobody can get enough of.
This week on the calls: $SIMO's CEO said "everything is in shortage... from wafer, from NAND, from memory, from even test capacity." $CARR data center orders +300% Y/Y. $Samsung made 99% of its operating profit from chips.
Memory, lasers, cooling, power... every layer is sold out. The hyperscalers aren't buying products anymore. They're buying allocation. https://t.co/uAYsqSOaW1
Holy sht, $MRVL is in the final stages of a deal to acquire $LITE.
Attempting to vertically integrate the most supply constrained chokepoints… with lasers.
Is very big brain if they pull it off and suddenly makes other laser players more strategically valuable.
@RealSimpleAriel @TSDR_Trading I think the issue is a lot of these stocks yeah they're down30 to 50% but if you zoom it out they're still up like 600 and investors just don't wanna deal with it anymore. $mu $lite even at these price the 1 year chart % is wild. Stage 3 super wild ip and down
Here are 15 stocks they just rated as a STRONG BUY:
$SNDK $LLY $AMZN $MRVL $ASML
$MU $MSFT $META $AVGO $NBIS
$LITE $ORCL $VRT $CRDO $HOOD
The smart money is positioning for the next rally.
Do not miss out again.
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@TSDR_Trading Bag Holders looking for confirmation bias. Say something negative about a stocks like $SNDK $INTC $IREN $MU $NBIS $LITE $CRWV and you will instantly hear about how much of a moron you are!
11 Stocks That Have Been Hammered — Is This an Opportunity?
$IREN : $140 → $26
$NBIS : $410 → $171
$CIFR : $59 → $8
$CRWV : $278 → $60
$RKLB : $150 → $59
$AVGO : $660 → $345
$LITE : $1,500 → $919
$COHR : $500 → $237
$AAOI : $220 → $79
$CRDO : Trading at $165, target $315
$AXTI : Trading at $60, target $125
A big drop doesn’t automatically mean a bargain. Fundamentals matter.
Which one looks most attractive to you?
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이게 주식인지
폭탄 피하기 게임인지 ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ
개별주 뭘사도 -5% 부터 시작이네
15배 간다며 젠슨형!!
$AXTI $AAOI $COHR $MRVL $LITE
$SPY $MU $SNDK $AMD $NvDa
$GOOGL $META $IREN $ORCL $LITE
Just saying..
Today's biggest SELL daytrade signals (see pinned post to try) - 60 min window from alert, plus current delta. Semi's crashed AH. $ORLY $RBLX $TER $NOW $PWR $FTNT $TWLO $EBAY $DASH $CAT $AON $RDDT $LIN $FICO $STX $ICE $MPC $COHR $AMZN $MTSI $MSFT $TEAM $KLAC $LITE $LRCX $NQ1! $MKSI $DHI $ADP $INTU $ALAB $SNOW
$MRVL worth 50 max
$MU 150 dollar stock
$SNDK will split and then go down 50% or more
$LITE should be 80 tops
All this shit got insane