If you can't invest $1,000 well, you won't be able to invest $100,000 well.
More money won't make you a better investor.
It just makes your mistakes more expensive.
If you can do that, you will take the power of your decision making to a whole other level. In many cases, you will be able to test how that principle would have worked in the past or in various situations that will help you refine it, and in all cases, it will allow you to compound your understanding to a degree that would otherwise be impossible. It will also take emotion out of the equation. Algorithms work just like words in describing what you would like to have done, but they are written in a language that the computer can understand. If you don’t know how to speak this language, you should either learn it or have someone close to you who can translate for you. Your children and their peers must learn to speak this language because it will soon be as important or more important than any other language. #principleoftheday
Elon Musk advierte que el tiempo se acaba:
Como máximo quedan 3 años en los que todavía podrás ganar dinero vendiendo tu trabajo. Después, la IA automatizará la mayoría de las tareas y pagar a una persona por su tiempo ya no tendrá sentido.
El modelo de los últimos 200 años “te doy tu salario a cambio de tu tiempo” está llegando a su fin.
Esto provocará el mayor movimiento de riqueza de la historia moderna. Los que ya están moviéndose lo entienden; los que esperan a que salga en las noticias llegarán tarde.
En estos 3 años, la jugada más inteligente es transformar tu tiempo en activos que la inteligencia artificial no pueda reemplazar ni multiplicar: Bitcoin y otros bienes digitales escasos, tierra y energía, infraestructura, redes de personas y la capacidad de producir lo que realmente necesitas.
Al final, lo que importa no es cuánto trabajes, sino qué posees. Quienes den ese salto ahora serán los que miren hacia atrás en 2035-2036 y digan “lo vi venir”.
Ya estás transformando tu tiempo en activos escasos o todavía estás esperando a que sea más evidente?
Sorry guys investing is not at all easy.
This chart is a great example of “Market discounting the future”
As Stanley druckenmiller said “Never, ever invest in the present. You always have to sort of imagine the world the way it's going to be in 18 to 24 months as opposed to now."
This is why understanding macro environment matters in investing… best investors are the ones who can visualise down the line because today, you are buying a promise in the form of higher P/E multiple not supported by earnings or collapsing P/E multiple ( value trap) although today”s earnings are superb.
Skyroot Aerospace.
Naga Bharath Daka (Co-Founder & COO)
Pawan Kumar Chandana (Co-Founder, CEO & CTO)
Successfully placed its Vikram-1 rocket into orbit on its very first attempt
Making India only the third nation with private orbital launch capability 🔥
Backed by leading institutions lik Mukesh Bansal, Shanghvi Family Office, Solar Industries.
Congratulations @isro@PawanKChandana 🔥
ORBIT ACHIEVED. 🚀
Vikram-1 Test Flight-1 has reached orbit. India's first privately developed orbital rocket has completed its final burn and injected its payloads into a ~450 km orbit, making India the third country in the world with private orbital launch capability.
History is made. 🇮🇳
#Vikram1 #JourneyToOrbit #SkyrootAerospace
Bajaj Consumer is a perfect example of how markets react to expectations, not just headline numbers
Quick Glance on Q1FY27
REV at 342 Cr, up 25% YoY
EBITDA at 83 Cr, up 103% YoY
PAT at 71 Cr, up 85% YoY
On the surface, numbers look good
But the stock has sold off sharply post results and is now down almost 25%
Management highlighted that the current growth rates are not sustainable & growth will normalise in coming quarters
As the base starts becoming higher, growth is expected to normalize towards double digit to low teens
So while Q1 looked strong, market are worried that growth may taper down from here
Margin expansion scope also appears limited from here
EBITDA margin is already near the upper end of management’s low to mid 20s comfort range
Q2 margins are expected to remain under pressure due to high cost inventory & volatility in LLP, packaging & edible oil prices
No major further pricing actions are planned, which means future growth will have to come largely from volumes, distribution expansion & market share gains
This is a classic case where the reported numbers were good, but the forward commentary was not strong enough to support elevated expectations
This is important to understand.
China is vacating low end manufacturing as it is not feasible for $10000 per capita economy.
So many of these low hanging fruits are getting plucked by Indian companies.
On top of that , INR has depreciated by almost 20% vs CNY in last 1 year.. so massive delta getting created in these Indian companies.
Unfortunately as I have mentioned before, these companies are not significant part of any Indian benchmarks.
Why rate of change in growth matters?
Below is the YOY revenue growth of Trent since last 20 Quarters
Check how the deceleration has taken place.
If the rate of change of growth changes from high to moderate. Expect Mr Market to adjust the multiples
Disc: no reco to buy or sell. Not invested.
Bull market ends when stocks stop going up on good news…
Bear market ends when stocks stop going down on Bad news.
This is the reason that you should act contrary to the advice given on magazine covers.
The worst thing an investor can do is keep averaging a stock only because the valuation looks attractive, especially when the fundamentals are deteriorating.
Blind averaging down is usually a combination of two behavioural biases:
Sunk cost fallacy - “I have already invested so much, so I must recover from this stock.”
Confirmation bias - “The stock is 40% below my purchase price, valuations are very attractive, and I will find reasons to justify holding it.”
But a cheap stock with deteriorating fundamentals is often not a bargain.
The question is never, “How far has this fallen from my buy price?”
The real question is: “Knowing what I know today, if I had no position, would I initiate a fresh position at this price, in this business, with these fundamentals?”
If the honest answer is no, averaging down is simply doubling a mistake.
Averaging only makes sense when the thesis is intact.
Otherwise, it is better to accept the mistake, protect capital and redeploy it into a better opportunity.
Apollo Micro Systems : Everyone wants it at ₹433 now. Nobody wanted it at ₹162
MTAR Technologies : Everyone wants it at ₹8357 now. Nobody wanted it at ₹1390
Sterlite Technologies : Everyone wants it at ₹655 now. Nobody wanted it at ₹85
Why is the public always busy chasing the train that has left? Add more examples below.