Silicon Data

Revolutionize compute markets through unparalleled data transparency, financial product innovation and market intelligence

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

It's been a month since our last update on NVIDIA GPU residual values. H100 marched higher to 61% of purchase price past 4 years since mass availability; B200 also moved even higher to 164% at 1.6 years. An accelerated five-year schedule would have them at 6% and 33% respectively. A100 slipped a bit further from 25% to 22.5% in year 6, but still sits well above a schedule that would've written it to zero a year ago.

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

Silicon Data residual value show that @nvidia GPUs are retaining their value well above those implied by typical straight-line depreciation schedules!

[Jonah Lupton @JonahLupton]

@jiahanjimliu @SemiAnalysis_ @citrini @OrnnExchange @silicondata Here’s a good interview with the @carmenli , CEO of @silicondata that just dropped a few days ago, I listened to it last night. https://t.co/eT8tNWjxsp

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

@drwconvexity @TheStalwart @tracyalloway the "crunch spread"?
https://t.co/5DeOl4rjR7

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

@drwconvexity @TheStalwart @tracyalloway the "crunch spread"?
https://t.co/5DeOl4rjR7

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

The same message we had shared a week ago seems to only have strengthened since as B200 and B300 GPU rental prices continue to rise sharply!

Also, dark mode is cool! So expect to see more of it going forward. 😄

[Don Wilson @drwconvexity]

Really enjoyed being back on Odd Lots with @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway. Would indeed have been fun to debate perps with Terry Duffy. We clearly have different views…

Following my prediction on last year's recording that in 10 years compute will be bigger than oil, this year I revealed the name we use at DRW for the profit margin between tokens and GPUs: the crunch spread.

Oil into fuel: crack spread. Soybeans into meal and oil: crush spread. Nat gas into power: spark spread. As with those markets, futures on both the GPU hours and tokens eventually will let you trade—and hedge—the crunch.

Listen to Odd Lots on Spotify: https://t.co/3Ajt0UsAtE

Listen to Odd Lots on YouTube: https://t.co/G3R6UQM6HD

Listen to Odd Lots on Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/Z97ied8rzq

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

@yuyy614893671 🥰

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

@dee_bosa @JensenHuang 🥰

[Carmen Li @carmenli]

PSA: Effective October 15, non-tradable forward curve pricing for @silicondata Rental Indices will be disseminated via CME MDP 3.0 and CME Data Insights - Settlements and Valuations market data channels. https://t.co/lwwUoX7rKk

[Carmen Li @carmenli]

Heading to Berlin next week for @NVIDIA GTC!

Excited to join the Capital Providers Panel on October 22, 3:45–4:30 PM, to discuss GPU financing, compute markets, and how pricing transparency is shaping the future of AI infrastructure.

See you in Berlin! Pin @josephcompute if you want to meet up for beers.

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

@RisksandReturns ☺️

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

It's been a month since our last update on NVIDIA GPU residual values. H100 marched higher to 61% of purchase price past 4 years since mass availability; B200 also moved even higher to 164% at 1.6 years. An accelerated five-year schedule would have them at 6% and 33% respectively. A100 slipped a bit further from 25% to 22.5% in year 6, but still sits well above a schedule that would've written it to zero a year ago.

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

Silicon Data residual value show that @nvidia GPUs are retaining their value well above those implied by typical straight-line depreciation schedules!

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

@RisksandReturns Entirely possible! We are just presenting the data as is and not suggesting by any means for people to forecast forward by unreasonably extrapolating. We present the data and people can form their own opinions.

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

@nipacrand Thanks!☺️☺

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

The same message we had shared a week ago seems to only have strengthened since as B200 and B300 GPU rental prices continue to rise sharply!

Also, dark mode is cool! So expect to see more of it going forward. 😄

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

Allegedly “the most important chart” for understanding the current state of the AI economy. The model layer seems to be going through a period of commodification as non-frontier models saturate everyday use while frontier models compete fiercely. Compute layer sees massive increase in total demand for compute regardless of the source or use case.

[Doug Garber @PitchThePM]

Token prices are falling, but not because providers are cutting them.

I asked @carmenli Li, CEO of @silicondata , what’s really behind the drop in AI token prices.
Her team tracks 300 open-source and open-weight models, plus closed-source models, to see what society is paying.
What they’re seeing: people shifting from premium models to cheaper ones, post the token-maxing era.

Carmen’s view:

“That’s why you see token prices dropping. Not because providers are cutting prices left and right, but because people are moving at least some of their workflows to open-source and open-weight models.”

Her caveat: Silicon Data sees tokens consumed by model, not customer use cases. But some open models are getting close enough that you may not need the smartest one for every job.

When the cheaper model is good enough, realized avarage prices fall without anyone cutting a price list.

Presented by @OxfordDataPlan - https://t.co/tBSwe8pST1

#AI #TokenPrices #OpenSource #AIInfrastructure #SiliconData #Investing #PitchThePM

https://t.co/KScXrj55JA

[Carmen Li @carmenli]

I joined @PitchThePM to talk token prices, compute as an asset class, and why GPU residuals are beating depreciation 🎙️ https://t.co/kHWaMRP66w

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

Link to the blog:

https://t.co/LsnPWbTfza

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

🚨Proud to announce our H100 and B200 Rental Index forward curves are now available through CME Group market data channels (MDP 3.0 and CME Data Insights).

Start planning your hedge before the first contract trades. Our Practitioner’s Guide walks through a full-year, 50-GPU H100 hedge step by step:

[CME Group @CMEGroup]

Now access non-tradable forward curve pricing for Silicon Data H100 & B200 Rental Indices. View forward curve valuation data for high-demand GPU compute rentals directly through our standard market data feeds. Get the details. https://t.co/qhPUZftAn0

[Doug Garber @PitchThePM]

@carmenli , CEO of @silicondata and @computeexchange , joins the show to explain how compute is becoming a brand-new asset class.
A former energy options market maker at DRW who later ran global data integrations at @Bloomberg , Carmen was pre-seeded by DRW founder Don Wilson to build the GPU industry benchmarks. Silicon Data is the referee "the Bloomberg for compute" while Compute Exchange is the liquidity layer where GPUs, tokens and servers change hands.
We get into why token price indexes are falling, recent token & model consumption trends, why GPU residual values are above accounting depreciation schedules, and how neoclouds, their lenders, and compute users can hedge GPU exposure to reduce business volatility.

• "The A100 has been around for six years at this point, and we still see three-year contracts signed on A100s." Residual values are still hovering above five-year straight-line depreciation.

• “we'd definitely be looking at 30 trillion of [GPU] derivatives every year."

Topics: Compute as an asset class, GPU indices, CME compute futures, GPU depreciation and useful life, neoclouds, token pricing, AI chip supply chain,

💡 This episode is presented by: @OxfordDataPlan –The Home of Alternative Data

*Not Investment Advice.

Highlights:

(0:00) Doug introduces Carmen Li, CEO of Silicon Data and Compute Exchange
(0:20) From energy options market maker at DRW to Bloomberg Data, and why AI startups' swinging GPU costs made compute an industry-wide hedging problem
(4:09) How DRW founder Don Wilson pre-seeded Silicon Data, and building products with no product or sales team
(6:10) Two sides of the coin: Silicon Data as "the Bloomberg for compute" and Compute Exchange as "the Nasdaq for compute"
(7:49) Licensing indices to CME for H100 and B200 compute futures, and four ETFs filed before the futures even trade
(10:22) What makes an index the source of truth: tracking supply-demand, resisting manipulation, staying neutral
(12:57) Normalizing 50 B200 server configurations, and what earns a premium or a discount to the benchmark
(16:04) Sizing the market: from 1–3 trillion in spot compute to a potential 30 trillion in derivatives notional
(18:13) Who hedges first: neoclouds, hyperscalers and the financiers holding GPUs on their balance sheets
(21:06) Michael Burry's depreciation bear case vs. the physical market: A100s still signing three-year contracts after six years
(22:49) Why older chips stay productive: cooling, floor weight, wait times and the second-hand market
(26:20) 300+ neoclouds and why more data sources make an index harder to manipulate
(28:48) B200s at ~$5 per GPU hour, the implied forward curve and the shift into contango
(31:18) Why an index provider can't give forward guidance, or own the assets it measures
(33:59) Token indices on the Bloomberg Terminal, and a leading indicator for AI revenue
(37:03) Why token prices are falling: workflows moving to open-source and open-weight models
(38:51) Token pricing has no transparency, and why customers will demand control
(41:49) Where to invest in the AI stack, lessons from the internet era and why "AI is a gigantic baby"
(45:03) Homegrown silicon, fab capacity and why a hundred chip designers can't create a bubble
(48:56) Why compute futures enable price discovery, not a bubble
(49:29) Running a data company and a marketplace at the same time
(52:47) Carmen's lesson for entrepreneurs: pick something you love
(54:08) The vision: the liquidity provider and the referee for every layer of the cake

Research Sponsors:
@Fiscal_ai - Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. 15% discount with code PITCH
@AlphaSenseInc Grade AI
@CarbonArcAI Infrastructure for the AI Economy

Pitch The PM Links:
📩Early episode drops episode feedback on Substack
Daily industry chatter and market color on LinkedIn
Carmen Li Links:
Carmen LI on LinkedIn:
Silicon Data: https://t.co/uRxu7XhOip
Compute Exchange: https://t.co/pKwifVekxJ

[Silicon Data @silicondata]

👀

[Muyao @MuyaoShen]

NEW: Jump, DRW are committing traders and capital to the emerging compute market, just as how they were betting on other markets during their early days such as digital assets