Risks & Returns

Global macro investor seeking to profit from asymmetric market trades.

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

Too many people on here have strong opinions but never post their returns. I do.

2019 to 2025: +293% (+21.6% per year) vs S&P 500 +205% (+17.3% per year). From my brokerage statements, net of fees. Great results so far — could be pure luck, we'll see.
https://t.co/iKC0h8GC7M

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@LSREnergy You have the next Ohtani!

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

I backtested the CNN Fear & Greed index over 15 years. At extreme fear it is a modest contrary signal for the next month only: about an extra point over an average month, with no improvement in win rate. Every other timeframe is noise.

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@marketplunger1 This too!

[Philadelphia 76ers @sixers]

our threads for the season. 👀

@Bloom_Energy

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@DanielTNiles Thanks Dan! So how concerned are you by the possibility of the Iran conflict escalating post-midterms?

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@silicondata Understood. Btw, your charts are very helpful. Keep up the great work!

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@ronmortgageguy Real wage growth is essentially zero and we are going to increase the labour force?

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@qthomp True on storage, with one offset. Storage sits at 74.3% versus 89% normal, the thinnest start since 2011. But every seasonal model has Europe about a degree warmer than normal this winter. Thin tank, mild forecast. The crisis needs a cold snap to actually happen

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@RyanDetrick We’re in the zone where this indicator becomes meaningful

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

CNN Fear & Greed is a popular contrary indicator. I rebuilt 15 years of it and tested the claim. It works at one extreme only. Extreme fear was followed by +1.95% in the next month, double the norm. Extreme greed was followed by +1.10%. Greed never predicted a decline.

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

CNN Fear & Greed is a popular contrary indicator. I rebuilt 15 years of it and tested the claim. It works at one extreme only. Extreme fear was followed by +1.95% in the next month, double the norm. Extreme greed was followed by +1.10%. Greed never predicted a decline.

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@jvisserlabs Earnings can be great, but inflation will keep pressuring multiples

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

As long as inflation continues to rise, equity multiples will keep dropping. Multiples peaked last October at 23 before this year's inflation surge and are now at 19.

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

The greatest capex cycle in history along with OBBB and trailing 4 quarter real GDP is only 2.2%!

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

MUFG: AI capex supercycle in historical context

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@michaeljburry October has a reputation for volatility. Highest daily volatility of any month since 1950, the most 2% days, the highest average VIX.

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@FredaDuan As commodity investors know, “the cure for high prices is high prices”. AI investors get excited seeing the value of old gpus hold value. But this is what guarantees over building.

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@lazyvillager1 Oil is forcing the Fed to kill the debasement narrative

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

Evidence that AI is having productivity benefits

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

I’m negative on the market, but it’s hard to get a proper bear market until EPS estimates stop going up

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Another record-high NTM S&P 500 EPS estimate.. $410 @dualityresearch

And slap a 19 multiple on $423 of CY 2027 EPS, and we get SPX 8k (and then some)

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@citrini @bkmfcc With this week’s inflation data and energy prices rising again, the Fed will have to kill the AI trade

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

During 2000, both treasuries and oil rallied through the entire year as bond investors priced in high energy prices causing an economic slowdown

[Risks & Returns @RisksandReturns]

@AMeshkati Well done! Looking forward to your Sunday note