"I am not sure that I exist, actually. I am all the writers that I have read, all the people that I have met, all the women that I have loved; all the cities I have visited." - Jorge Luis Borges
1/ The future is a probability distribution- almost nothing is certain. Investing is fundamentally a probabilistic exercise. You can have an excellent decision making process in making an investment and still have an unfavorable outcome. H/T Howard Marks and Michael Mauboussin
What's better than a simple investment thesis? A simple one that appears to be complicated on the surface. It's where many outsized investment returns hide because they are ignored. Don't be afraid to peel away the layers of the onion.