We are back at historical buying levels.
Same zone as:
• 2018 bear market bottom
• 2020 COVID crash
• 2022 bear market bottom
Every time fear was extreme.
Every time it was opportunity.
$BTC 🟠
Z-Score Probability Waves are at the lowest level we have ever seen.
Am I calling for an IMMEDIATE reversal?
No.
Am I saying Bitcoin is obscenely undervalued right now?
Yes.
Good luck with your “going to zero” thesis.
h/t: @OnChainMind 🧠
Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index is indicating a bottom... most oversold the asset has been since the depths of the crypto winter in 2022.
Seems pretty clear that the bear market began with the October 10th flush.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI just printed at 52.6, breaking above the 50-mark for the first time since Jan 2025. A bullish indicator for the economy.
The caveat: A strong ISM reduces the pressure on the Fed to cut rates. Historically, the Fed is more likely to pause or hike when ISM is expanding (chart coming soon).
The chart:
Light green = Bitcoins price action, bottom to top.
Red = ISM < 50
Dark Green = ISM > 50
Notice these timeframes:
2014-2015 & 2018-2019
ISM was steadily holding 52-59. Yet Bitcoin entered into the bear market.
2023-2025
ISM stayed below 50 for 2 years. Yet Bitcoin rallied 700%
ISM is not a 1:1 indicator for Bitcoin. It's a better indicator of future Fed policy.
BTC Funding Rates Flash a Short-Side Excess
“Historically, such phases have frequently preceded trend reversals, sometimes lasting, sometimes limited to the very short term.” – By @Darkfost_Coc
Get the full insight ⤵️
https://t.co/Kq80orhLXe
The Bitcoin price bottom only happens when…
✅ Short-Term Holders are in loss (this has already happened)
⏳ Long-Term Holders start carrying losses (this has not happened yet — this is when the real bottom forms))
Additionally:
🔴 The bear market only ends when the STH Realized Price falls below the LTH Realized Price.
🟢 The bull market begins when the STH Realized Price moves back above the LTH Realized Price, after the bear market has fully played out.
We track this with a dedicated chart to alert you when it happens.
Data > Narratives
@Alphractal