Snuggletron3000

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@TheRealERS @simon_bazelon @NateSilver538 E.g. plot state Pres vote vs Senate polling error two years later. Coefficient for 2018 and 2022 is 0.37. For just the 2022 competitive races it was 0.7. For Ds to take the Senate means polls don’t have the same pattern of error as the last two midterms.

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@TheRealERS @simon_bazelon @NateSilver538 Evan you do great work but in this case don’t agree. The average error in 2018 and 2022 in the types of states Ds need to win (TX IA OH AK etc) was fairly large and understated Rs consistently. And overstated Rs in D-leaning states.

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@Janeese4DC You haven’t even won yet and I can’t wait for you to be out of office.

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@RealSKeshel The term you are looking for is “by accident”

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@chriswithans All of that makes sense apart from the idea that the candidates perform inline with 2024 lean plus 9pp shift. Brown outperformed Harris by 7pp or something, Peltola by like 11pp I think.

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@TonerousHyus @Taniel That big of an oversample will also infest your undies.

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@CGasparino It’s hilarious that Trump is using the term plunder given the shakedown he and Witkoff are undertaking.

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@Brendan_Duke @USCBO Now do this using top marginal income tax rates including the top state rates.

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@BarakRavid Are you implying that he actually intends to do it?

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@atrupar @CahnEmily I mean if those were the biggest hits there weren’t many hits. The road salt line was good on paper but not great on video. Meh.

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@gelliottmorris @LarrySabato Maybe it doesn’t prove what you think it proves — the issue isn’t nationwide bias, it’s R underestimate in R states and D underestimate in D states. And the gaps you show line up very well with this.

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@TonerousHyus @AmericaFirst316 Let’s see the big kalshi senate bets

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@TonerousHyus @AmericaFirst316 Can we see a screenshot of your polymarket/kalshi bets?

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@PhilWMagness I think Oren Cass is a tool, but ask Grok for a list of top macro fund managers you’d probably find a mix of econ and non-econ undergrad and no grad level econ training. But those guys don’t need to impress anyone (main point of PhD) Cass et al do, so they need the degrees.

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@SeanTrende @ijbailey @CathyYoung63 @Patrick_am_I I haven’t read that much about this case and don’t know the facts like others, but you raise an interesting question on the guys involved. If everyone was equally zoned out on Ketamine and equally drunk, how do moral or, separately, legal responsibilities change?

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@MarcGoldwein @BudgetHawks Better than the $2.1trn expected though!

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@SteveCortes Free trade might be gay (it isn’t) but you’re the one wearing the pink shirt.

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@OGCannaKingCA @MindlessSelfIn @robin_j_brooks OG there is crude supply and refinery demand, retard. Refineries getting hit lowers their demand for crude, which lowers the crude price and raises the diesel price, all else equal, retard.

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@cremieuxrecueil @generic_void For sure affects the urge to drink and sex drive

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@chriswithans Screenshot your polymarket bet showing this.