Americans are not happy with the war in Iran.
Consumer sentiment just fell to a record low in April.
The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers has data back to 1952.
The 47.6 reading in April is lower than the tariffs last spring (52.2) and lower than the dreaded inflation spike in the summer of 2022 (50.0).
Consumer expect inflation to be 4.8% in the year ahead.
Here’s the cheat code to long-term investing decisions:
1. Lifetime returns dependent on 2 things: asset allocation, not active management, AND discipline to avoid behavior gap
2. Favor stocks (US Market) over bonds
3. If including bonds, keep maturities short (5yrs or less)
4. Own large & small stocks, 60-40
5. For large cap, split 50-50 between high profitability (“good growth”) and value. NO S&P 500,Total market, or Large growth
6. Small cap- keep it simple w/100% value. NO growth!
7. (Not shown), include international developed—60/40 large & small, 100% value
8. Rebalance when allocations 20% +/- target or w/cash flows
“The truth is that what I learned at Renaissance is that when we’re ready to trade information doesn’t matter…
…when we…the generally what we looked at was not news we just looked at Price movements because we assumed that any news we could see…someone else had already seen that news they’ already traded off of it and whatever I needed to learn from that news was already encoded in some way in the price in the stock market.
So all of our models just looked at price and volume…and…how deep the book was…we looked at the…the actual people betting on the market and we assumed that anything that could be known about stocks…we couldn’t possibly figure out…from the news…but we knew that there were people who were experts on every single stock who were reading the news and they were trading off of it and so if we just looked at the stock prices we could glean what we needed to know…
when you see news happen you have to assume that everyone bigger than you already knows that…everyone who trades Disney already heard that news…minutes to hours before you did…they’ve already traded off of it…and… the stock price has already moved up to where that news reflects the price should be…”
Today I turn 55.
I’m the fittest, sharpest, and happiest I’ve ever been.
If I’m an outlier, it’s not because I’m built different or discovered a secret formula. The truth is far less glamorous:
It’s a million tiny choices, compounded over decades.
Here are 55 of them:
1. Walk 15+ miles a week, even if you do other exercise. Humans are uniquely made to move slowly over long distances—it’s critical to longevity.
2. Develop a writing practice. It’s the single best way to sharpen your mind. And remember, you don’t have to be a good writer to write. Start with 10 minutes a day.
3. Swap out your toothpaste, deodorant, lotions, soap, shampoo, and other personal care products for natural versions. Here’s a rule of thumb: Don’t put anything on your skin that you couldn’t safely eat.
4. If you have a positive thought about someone, don’t keep it to yourself—share it immediately. Encouragement defies the laws of physics: When you give energy, you also receive it.
5. Wear shoes with a wide forefoot (I like Topo Athletic) and wear toe spreaders around the house (search “yoga toes” on Amazon). Spine health begins with the feet.
6. Get sunlight regularly. Moderate sun exposure (without sunscreen) is hugely important for overall health.
7. Do a 3-minute deep (“ass to grass”) squat every morning. Deep squats are often called the anti-aging exercise. It’s been said that, “It’s not that you can’t do deep squats because you’re old, it’s that you’re old because you can’t do deep squats.”
8. Explore minimalism (it’s not what you think it is).
9. Set boundaries on toxic relationships. We tend to cling to relationships past their expiration date, and it takes a bigger toll on our health than we recognize.
10. Eat real food. Not too much. Don’t eat garbage. Binge occasionally. Fast occasionally. That’s the diet.
11. Learn about FIRE. It’s a great framework for financial success.
12. Don’t take antibiotics except in emergency situations. They’re massively over-prescribed and aren’t needed in most cases. Antibiotics have done untold damage to our guts, which is where health begins. Great natural alternatives are out there.
13. Get 8 hours of quality sleep each night. To optimize sleep:
—Don’t eat after 6pm
—Get blackout shades and cover LEDs with black tape
—No screens 2 hours before bed
—Try ashwagandha (an herb) to calm the nervous system
14. Stop drinking, even in moderation. People find all sorts of ways to justify drinking, but there’s no escaping the simple fact that alcohol is a toxin and it limits your potential.
15. Travel as much as possible. Nothing expands the mind like seeing the world. And travel doesn’t have to be expensive—the best experiences happen outside of fancy resorts, when you live like a local.
16. Let go of resentment. When you forgive someone, you release the prisoner, and the prisoner isn’t them… it’s you.
17. Show up on time, every time. Poor time management limits success more than most people realize. If you struggle with punctuality, stop everything else and fix that first.
18. Spend lots of time in nature and touch the earth. Humans evolved over 300k years to live in harmony with nature, and only recently have we retreated indoors. If you don’t spend time outside, you’re fighting biology (hint: You won’t win.)
19. Stop doing dumb things. As Leo Tolstoy said, “People try to do all sorts of clever and difficult things to improve life instead of doing the simplest, easiest thing—refusing to participate in activities that make life bad.”
20. Find your happy place and (eventually) move there. Most people live where they live because... that's where they live. We are products of our environment—choose yours carefully.
21. Find a hobby and pursue mastery. You can’t have a happy life without a passionate pursuit that isn’t your vocation. Your work—even if you enjoy it—isn’t enough.
22. Avoid mainstream medicine except as a last resort. The results are in—our healthcare (or more appropriately, sick care) system is badly broken and only makes people sicker.
23. Have a mindset of abundance. There is no advantage to being a pessimist—even if you’re right, it’s a miserable way to live. In a very real way… whatever you believe, you’re right!
24. Do hard things. Choose courage over comfort. Everything you want is on the other side of fear and hard work. As Jerzy Gregorik said, “Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life.”
25. Ignore haters. Hurt people hurt people. Negative/toxic people live in a prison of their own design. Don’t join them!
26. Say no. Protect your time and energy like it’s your most precious asset… because it is.
27. Become a water snob. As an alien said on Star Trek, humans are “ugly bags of mostly water.” You are what you drink—literally! We have Mountain Valley Spring water delivered in glass 5-gallon jugs and also have whole-house water filter (Aquasana Rhino).
28. Stop drinking sodas and sugary energy drinks. After a few weeks you won’t miss them, and a few months later they’ll seem disgusting. Refined sugar causes inflammation, which is the root of most disease.
29. If you’re over 35, find a good functional/longevity medicine doctor and start tracking your hormones. Modern life is hell on the endocrine system and restoring healthy hormone levels can change your life. As we get older, we either accept a slow decline in performance or we do something about it—choose the latter!
30. Develop a morning routine and follow it faithfully. Win the morning, win the day!
31. Invest in experiences, not things. People frequently regret buying things, but rarely regret investing in great experiences (especially when shared with loved ones). Remember, there’s nothing you can buy in a mall that you’ll remember in ten years.
32. Explore spirituality. It’s arrogant and small-minded to believe there’s nothing going on in our universe that is beyond our comprehension. We know less about our universe than an ant meandering on a sidewalk understands about this planet.
33. Have a strong bias toward action—doing rather than talking. If you ask a bunch of old people about their regrets, they’ll talk about the things they *didn't* do—the shots they didn’t take—more than the things they did do (even if it went wrong). As Wayne Gretzky famously said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Most people don’t take enough shots.
34. Stay lean. Men in particular are obsessed with muscle mass these days, but bulk doesn’t age well. The goal is to be strong but lean. The fittest guys in their 50s and beyond aren’t meatheads, they’re lean guys who are serious about a sport.
35. Curate your inner circle carefully. Surround yourself with people you admire and who challenge you to grow. Remember, we’re the average of our 5 closest relationships.
36. Be the fittest version of yourself. Your body is your only vessel for experiencing life—so treat it as such. Fitness isn’t working out a few times a week, it’s a lifestyle. The older you get, the more time you need to devote to your health.
37. Take the time to appreciate art and beauty in all its forms.
38. Think globally, but act locally. Too many people put their energy into far-away problems they don’t understand and can’t impact, while ignoring problems right under their nose. Want to change the world? Start at home.
39. Try psychedelics. It’s one of those things everyone should do at least once, and it might be the breakthrough you’ve been looking for.
40. Limit bad habits, including unhealthy thought patterns. We all have them—practice avoidance and find substitutes. Get professional help if needed.
41. Be a lifelong learner. Your brain is just like a muscle—if you don’t feed and flex it regularly, it will atrophy.
42. Find your purpose. People with a strong sense of purpose are happier and live longer. Lack of purpose sucks energy and magnifies depression.
43. Only take advice from people who embody the traits you want to have. Talk is cheap—emulate those who have DONE it.
44. The goal is not to retire and do nothing, it’s to build a great day-to-day life that you don’t need to escape. A life of leisure is a slow death. Happiness isn’t possible without a little struggle, uncertainty, and skin in the game.
45. Have fun! Do frivolous and silly things that make you smile. As George Bernard Shaw famously said, “We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.”
46. Whatever you want to do or achieve in life, start NOW. Don’t fall victim to “someday thinking” because someday never comes.
47. Accumulate assets—things that grow in value over time. It’s the #1 habit of rich people, and it can be done in tiny chunks. Instead of spending $100 on an impulse purchase that has no lasting value, put that money into an index fund or Bitcoin. It becomes addictive (in a good way).
48. Don’t ignore the big 3 canaries in the coal mine for health:
—Low libido (and ED)
—Frequent sinus & respiratory issues
—Depression
These usually aren’t medical conditions in themselves, they’re symptoms of an underlying problem. Find a good doc (outside of the mainstream) and figure out the root cause.
49. Have a clear vision for your future. How can you decide which direction to go if you haven’t clearly defined the destination? It sounds obvious, but 95% of people haven’t defined their “Ideal End State” in detail and in writing. (Check out my thread on this topic.)
50. Make your own decisions. We live in an era where most of what society tells us is wrong. Don’t be afraid to break from societal norms—if people say you’re crazy, it’s a sign that you’re doing something right.
51. Get hardcore about mobility exercise. As you age, it’s usually the knees, hips, and lower back that limit physical performance. 30 min a couple times a week can spare you a lifetime of pain. YouTube is a great resource.
52. Go all in on family. Get married, stay married, have kids. Burn the boats. In the end, family is all that matters.
53. Be ruthless with your time. Money comes and goes. Time only goes. Audit your calendar ruthlessly—cut the trivial, double down on the meaningful, and spend your hours like your life depends on it. (Because it does.)
54. Have a strong bias toward action. Be curious, try things, meet people—it’s how you increase your surface area for serendipity, the most powerful unseen force in our lives.
55. Reinvent yourself every decade. Over time, we slowly drift off course from our priorities, values, and true identity. Take stock and don’t be afraid to hit the reset button. Bold, calculated moves made for the right reasons almost always pay off—usually even more than you can imagine.
🎁 P.S. If you enjoyed this post, would you give me a birthday gift? Repost or comment with the item number(s) you liked best?
Umberto Eco, who owned 50,000 books, had this to say about home libraries:
“It is foolish to think that you have to read all the books you buy, as it is foolish to criticize those who buy more books than they will ever be able to read. It would be like saying that you should use all the cutlery or glasses or screwdrivers or drill bits you bought before buying new ones.
“There are things in life that we need to always have plenty of supplies, even if we will only use a small portion.
“If, for example, we consider books as medicine, we understand that it is good to have many at home rather than a few: when you want to feel better, then you go to the ‘medicine closet’ and choose a book. Not a random one, but the right book for that moment. That’s why you should always have a nutrition choice!
“Those who buy only one book, read only that one and then get rid of it. They simply apply the consumer mentality to books, that is, they consider them a consumer product, a good. Those who love books know that a book is anything but a commodity.”
Sauna is one of the most effective health protocols I've done. Here is everything I've learned; it's the most robust characterization ever produced.
Results:
1) Fifteen sessions of sauna dramatically reduced environmental toxins in my body:
+ 65% drop in 2,4-D
+ 100% drop in MEP
+ 15% drop in MBP
+ 100% drop in MEHP (undetectable post sauna)
+ 56% drop in NAPR
+ 56% drop in HEMA
+ 100% drop in Perchlorate (undetectable post sauna)
2. Sauna eliminated 85% of microplastics from my ejaculate.
Nov 2024:
165 particles/mL
July 2025: 20 particles/mL
Nearly identical drop in my blood same time period:
Oct 2024: 70 particles/mL
May 2025: 10 particles/mL
3. Sauna, without ice on the boys, devastated my fertility markers.
Total Motile Count: –56%
Concentration: –30%
Motility: –50%
Morphology: –48%
Count: –9%
4. Sauna coincided with my fertility markers being at an all-time high. I have more total and motile sperm than 99.6% of men of any age, including men under 25.
+ total count: 600 M
+ concentration: 162 M
+ motility: 55%
+ total motile count: 330M
+ morphology (normal): 10%
We do not know what to make of these improvements. Was it the sauna? Sauna + ice? Ice only? We don't know but we did not identify any other protocols or lifestyle changes during this interval that would plausibly account for the change.
5. My vascular function improved by a ten year reduction in age. Now I have the vascular age of an elite 18-early 20s.
+ Central Systolic Blood Pressure: 96 mmHg
+ Central Pulse Pressure: 20 mmHg
+ Pulse Pressure Amplification: 160%
+ SEVR: 227%
+ Augmentation Pressure: 1 mmHg
+ Augmentation Index Wave: 3%
+ Traditional blood pressure: 107/75 mmHg
6. What type of sauna?
Use a dry sauna with high temperatures between 80-100°C (176 to 212°F) and 5-20% relative air humidity. Aim for the lower end of this spectrum, especially as a beginner. Higher temperatures closer to the boiling point can cause side effects like headaches and severely dried nose and eyes.
Note: Steam baths, hot tubs, and infrared saunas fail to replicate the same effects because they do not allow you to safely reach the required high temperatures and do not induce the same level of sweating, the necessary inverted (skin-to-core) temperature gradient, and the massive re-direction of blood to the skin with resulting vasodilation.
Dry sauna is unique, and very likely superior to wet (steam bath) and infrared saunas. By heating up your skin way faster than your core, dry hot sauna flips your core skin temperature gradient, eliciting the following hormetic benefits:
+ enhanced blood flow: the heart pumps up to 70% more blood, similar to intense aerobic exercise (zone 2-+ increased sweating for detoxification: to maintain a stable core temperature, the skin produces 0.6-1 liter of sweat per hour, facilitating significant detoxification.
+ improved heat tolerance: the body becomes better at handling heat, leading to a lower core body temperature (offering metabolic advantages)
+ safe activation of heat shock proteins: the skin experiences substantial heat shock protein activation, while a modest 1°C increase in core temperature is sufficient to activate these proteins without the risk of hyperthermia.
+ extended Exposure at higher temperatures: dry saunas are more tolerable for longer durations and at higher temperatures, maximizing the benefits.
7. Sauna protocol and frequency
Type: hot dry sauna
Temperature: 176–212°F ( I do 200°F)
Relative air humidity: very low, 5-20%
Duration: 20 min
Frequency: 4–7x a week
8. Heat Protection
If you'd like, you can protect your head from the heat by wearing a sauna hat or wrapping it with a towel (use only cotton or other 100% natural material). You can breathe through a towel or cloth if needed to protect your nose. I am personally fine not doing this.
Most importantly, ice the balls.
Icing the testicles is absolutely required to prevent heat from damaging fertility markers.
+ Ice the testes during the sauna session.
+ Use a non-toxic, reusable ice pack material.
+ Wear cotton boxers and shorts.
+ Place ice packs in between the boxers and shorts.
+ Keep them in place for the entire session.
Men should care about preserving fertility markers even when they are not trying to conceive. Sperm quality is tightly coupled to testicular function, which governs testosterone production, metabolic health, and long term endocrine stability. When fertility parameters decline, the same upstream dysfunction often drives lower testosterone, higher inflammation, and increased cardiometabolic risk.
9. Hydration
Dry sauna induces sweating as part of its beneficial mechanism. Be sure to hydrate properly. In general, you might need to rehydrate with up to 16–32 oz (0.5–1 L) of fluid after a sauna session. Be sure to add electrolytes.
If you want to be precise, measure your sweat amount and electrolytes (saltiness) using a patch (e.g., from Gatorade) to quantify your liquid and electrolyte loss, and rehydrate accordingly. Some people have saltier sweat than others and must ensure they replenish electrolytes as well as water.
My results: my body sweats 18 oz during a 20 min sauna at 200 °F, with a sodium concentration of 25-39 mg/oz. A single sauna session flushes 450–700 mg of sodium out of my body.
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I wish you all the best in life my friend. A new era or being human is here. One where existence is the highest virtue. Prioritize sleep, daily exercise and eat well and you'll be in a strong position. Try to avoid the bad stuff. Anything that takes away your agency.
Be a warrior and caretaker of existence. Don't Die.
Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt, which is now about 6x of the money taken in, 100 percent of GDP, and about $230,000 per American family, will rise over ten years to about 7.5x the money taken in, 130 percent of GDP, and $425,000 per family. That will increase interest and principal payments on the debt from about $10 trillion ($1 trillion in interest, $9 trillion in principal) to about $18 trillion (of which $2 trillion is interest payments), which will lead to either a big squeezing out (and cutting off) of spending and/or unimaginable tax increases, or a lot of printing and devaluing of money and pushing interest rates to unattractively low levels. This printing and devaluing is not good for those holding bonds as a storehold of wealth, and what’s bad for bonds and US credit markets is bad for everyone because the US Treasury market is the backbone of all capital markets, which are the backbones of our economic and social conditions. Unless this path is soon rectified to bring the budget deficit from roughly 7% of GDP to about 3% by making adjustments to spending, taxes, and interest rates, big, painful disruptions will likely occur.
Author and investor @morganhousel explains that real wealth is measured in autonomy, not accumulation.
"I want to wake up every morning and say I can do whatever the hell I want today."
"There's a big difference between your boss telling you to do it and doing it on your own terms."
"Every dollar that you don't spend is money that you are actually spending on independence."
"Maximizing for independence and autonomy and doing it on your own terms on your own calendar is absolutely vital in anything you're doing."
If I’m gonna be fair these questions needs to be asked today.
Why is the release of the Epstein list always a shit show?
What’s the point of booting out illegals and criminals while somehow becoming a safe haven for the Tate brothers?
Why is Crypto in the toilet if Trump is crypto king?
How far does Tsla stock have to crash before Elon goes back to work?