bought $PLTR $125.85
the market is once again selling off all of SaaS because of AI infra names going higher.
this does not make sense.
you don’t have any magical AI revolution without the application layer.
you also have way stronger growth for SaaS companies in general as open source models get cheaper and reduce the cost to utilize those models. this is a tailwind for software.
some software names will become irrelevant but companies like Palantir are only seeing MORE growth (85% last Q, highest in all of SaaS) with exceptional margins because of delivering actual results for enterprises. there is a reason Nvidia is partnering with Palantir to deliver open source models. if anything, Palantir is becoming AI infrastructure for an enterprise even if they don’t sell chips.
this $120 range has been respected nicely the entire year and it has been a place I’ve used many times to buy dips, but if we start to see some ugly earnings from different software names (like IBM) then I think Palantir will go down regardless because of it being in the SaaS algos. if you want to buy a great software company and care about short term movement, you have to be ready for them to all go down or up together.
regardless, I think the market really is incorrect in selling off all software because of semis going up and I am very happy accumulating the highest growing companies in the world with the best margins outside of Nvidia in order for them to further benefit from when FCF explodes and the market remembers that you don’t get AI working in an enterprise without a company like Palantir.
@FLOWKINGOPTIONS Yes $120s have always been really good support outside of one week where we dipped to $107, if we lose $120 then we are heading lower but holding this range has been a strong spot to take a chance on dips
$DRAM perfectly bounced off the .618 Golden Retracement Zone (1) last Friday, which was the bottom of the key support we talked about early last week in the Subscriber chat. Pretty sure we've reached the bottom after this 40% drop, but we could consolidate for a minute before heading higher.
We'll have confirmation that we're ready to head higher if we can get back above the $55 range (2). The next key level will be $61 (3).
Probably noone cares and it's not even an unpopular opinion, but I am saying it anyways:
$DRAM and $NBIS are the opportunities of the decade right now.
So many macro tailwinds, catalysts and de-risking events in the last weeks despite declining share price.
If that call aged like milk a year from now, I will gladly wear a McDonalds uniform in my profile pic for a year and enroll in the squid games.
Not Financial Advice.
P.S. I have similar views on $AMPX and $DRTS right now.
I just finished my write up on why I think $DRAM is one of the most attractive r/r set ups right now, especially after their -25% correction.
It just amazes me how everyone was queuing up to buy $DRAM at $75, but suddenly everyone is bearish at $60. What exactly changed about the memory thesis?
Capex concerns, CXMT, Supply tightness - I cover it all in my article if you're interested.
https://t.co/WayvRoiKNW
Majority of midlife crisis people fall into these buckets:
1) extensive international travel - cheap dopamine
2) obsession with some niche like comics/collectables/cars
3) overly competitive rec sports - injury city
4) full tilt into spirituality to find meaning - quit job etc
*Primary* audience is three segments: 1) ultra rich - whales 9 figures, 2) extremely intense autist/nerd types age range 18-32 and 3) people who run small e-com biz/wall street with $1M net worth
Rest = won't understand anything here and too smooth brained to make it anyway
All that multi tasking small break junk they teach you in corporate is wrong.
Sprint ultra hard 2-3 hours intense focus
2-3 hours hit the gym, eat, play video games whatever
Sprint ultra hard again intense focus 2-3 hours
Call it a day.
Dating in Singapore is brutal asf if you don’t fit the standard mold.
There’s this unspoken checklist of degrees, looks, fit body, job security, and salary, and if you don't tick few of those boxes, you’re just written off.
I learned this the hard way at 18. My girlfriend dumped me because I only had a primary school PSLE certificate. She was convinced I had no future and would never get a secure job or a good salary. It stung, but it woke me up.
At 22, I decided to leave Singapore and see what was out there.
Exploring the dating scene abroad was a massive eye-opener. Outside the local bubble, non-Singaporean women didn't give a damn about my resume or what papers were in my folder.
They cared about who I actually was - my character, my drive, and my personality.
I ended up dating quite a bit, and now I’m happily married to an incredible French woman. She went to a top school in France, holds a Master’s and two Bachelor’s degrees, and currently pulls in a 6-figure annual income.
We just welcomed our newborn into the world.
Don't let a piece of paper or someone else's narrow mindset of "He wasn't fully my type" define your worth.
The world is much bigger than this island.
New frontier for rich-poor divide in Singapore isn't academics/spending on kids' tuition etc but limiting screen time and healthy cognitive development.
Limiting screentime (none at all for toddlers) essentially means having an engaged helper not overburdened with housework (read: 2 helpers), or SAHM (husband earns enough to carry everyone).
Also having a landed property with a garden/open space so your kids don't feel bored at home without electronic devices.
Baby-led weaning in early years and dining outside also means spending quite a bit on more upscale places throughout the entirety of that period.
Young people in Singapore are broken because social, cultural and economic factors decades in the making broke them.
The Singapore TFR crisis is easily explainable by biology.
Females of a species reproduce when resources are available to support population growth. They reproduce less under stress when resources are scarce.
The current crop of 25-35 year olds have been psyoped into a permanent scarcity complex, notwithstanding the country’s apparent relative wealth vis other countries.
To understand how this happened, we have to study the generations above us, and the prevailing social and economic narrative of the time.
In the 90s, Singapore experienced an economic boom. Our parents - the 30 year olds of the time, were sold the narrative that opportunities were aplenty and to elevate your family, you simply needed to have kids and educate them to seize the opportunities.
In typical Nanyang / Confucianist fashion, children became the tool of an Asian family’s ascension. My vintage (I’m 32) was certainly brought up that way. Children of white collar workers were min maxed to ascend towards becoming lawyers, doctors, bankers etc. Children of blue collar workers were min maxed to ascend towards white collar workers.
Your life isn’t your own - you are simply a conduit for ascension. So rmb you have piano at 4pm, math tuition at 7pm and tennis tomorrow at noon to try for DSA to RI.
And thanks to the beauty of the great bell curve grading, it’s not about how well you do. It’s how well you do relative to your peers. Tis unironically insufficient that you succeed, others must fail.
In short, it was PvP in an environment where it appeared that there were still significant spoils to the winners.
And indeed, the generation before us suffered too at the hands of those before.
But as their opportunities for ascension got squeezed, the second pillar of our trauma was introduced.
Working mothers. Sure it became harder for one breadwinner to elevate his bloodline but with two breadwinners, they could together achieve an imitation of the Merdeka Dream.
The cost?
Only the children’s upbringing. Child rearing became commoditised. Mummy was replaced by some combination of Yati, Ahma and an alleged ex-SAP school teacher that guarantees straight As even to the most retarded child.
"Sorry - it’s the only way we could achieve the 5Cs. But we do all this so you can live a better life, as long as you study hard."
But when it became the children’s turn - our turn, what levers are there left to pull? There are none for all the levers have been pulled to generate our up only economy and real estate, which had the side effect of pulling the ladder up behind the previous generations.
To the victors, the spoils were promised but even after the grueling PvP, there were barely any spoils left for the winners. The PvP was all for naught.
And so Singaporeans live a relatively good life by global standards - tis true. But not the life they were promised. And so they have difficulty imagining a route to a better life for their children.
The people in power fundamentally misunderstand this, as they live in their 8000 square foot GCBs built atop 15,000 square feet of land.
You do not need that much space to have sex and raise kids in absolute terms - tis true. But biologically you cannot convince the 30 year old dual income couple paying 50% of their income towards a mortgage for a 700 square foot two bedder that they are 'doing well' and should have more children.
Our parents could live in a HDB (1400 sq ft btw they stopped making those), point at a GCB and in good conscience tell themselves and their kids that if their kids follow the golden path, they could live there one day. Today - they cannot.
And so because zeitgeist of young Singapore has shifted from optimism to pessimism, the average young woman refuses to reproduce. Social media is a contributor sure - but tis simply biology at work, reproduction happens when the female feels like there is abundance.
The anecdotal observation I have made that supports this? Every woman I know in their 20s and 30s that married into money has children and want at least 2. 3 if they live in landed. They have no retarded girl-boss ambitions (even though they might have the capability to) and put the upbringing of their children first.
It also explains why female hypergamy in Singapore is in full swing. Marrying a wagecuck, even a high-earning wagecuck, simply allows you to live a glamorous DINK life. If you want to be a mother - which your biology urges you towards - you simply must marry into money. And the only way for a man to have real money is to be born into it, or gamble and win.
This has significant knock-on effects for the men which I could rant about another time, but it largely stems from the dual issues of feeling perpetually financially inadequate and the first order distaste of the blatant hypergamy at play.
Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk, back to my vacation with my wife and very expensive kids.
Education in Singapore is truly something else
Competition starts all the way from when the kids are just 3 years old:
> You’d see parents start buying property just based off how close it is to the primary school
> Parents would start volunteering in these schools to earn “points”
> Tuition starts as early as 5 years old for the kids
> Piano and violin classes also starts when kids are 4-5
Insane tech tbh
Only in Singapore, where parents basis property purchase decisions on proximity to top primary schools (<1km) to boost their child’s chances of getting in.
Perma-bullish on Marine Parade HDB prices.
Someone commented yesterday regarding how it's better to stay single, than an unhappy marriage
I agree
Singapore's divorce rate has been steadily climbing up whilst marriage rates were going down
26,000 new marriages and 7,400 divorces would mean for every 3 new marriages, there's 1 new divorce
The sad part about this is that most marriages that continue aren't even happy marriages
Most stay married because:
1) Divorce is a complicated process
2) "Staying married for the kids"
3) Divorce is expensive
I have a really good friend of mine whose parents literally live in different parts of the house and do not speak to one another when they come across each other IN THE SAME SPACE
That's suffocating
And i'm sure they aren't the only living this way
Pretty sure one of the reason for these unhappy marriages is also because there's a large group of people that got married because of their BTO and not because of love
If there was a way to measure "happiness" in a marriage, I'm fairly confident the results for most Singaporean couples would likely trend towards "unhappy"