steve feiss

independent US RATES, global macro observer. opinions expressed are my own. for more click

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

'even Lacy Hunt is bearish' @TruthGundlach noted other day ... Today's note (https://t.co/oA2dvh9Z47) offers link thru to latest from Dr. Hunt & HIMCo as well as a shorter-term bullish looking chart of 5s and a note from a shop UPgrading HY. Timing is everything...

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

#Got2s?
#conundrum (h/t @johnauthers)
June FI index #Extensions (below avg)
#SPCX trading patterns

... and somewhat more https://t.co/oA2dvh9Z47

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

RIP, #Greenspan
(noticed just after I hit send https://t.co/oA2dvh9Z47), end of an era ...

https://t.co/2Vvb4i23bX

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

And the race to the bottom begins

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

▪️5s vs (s/t)resistance
▪️stocks 2m RoC +16% (and what may happen next)

What do these have in common? nothing (or everything as seasonals are bullish bonds, s/t techs not so much)

... both (and more) on today's note ...
https://t.co/oA2dvh9Z47

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

Look kids, Big Ben. Parliament…

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Futures, Global Stocks Soar To All Time HIgh, Oil Plunges On Endless "Iran Deal" Drumbeat https://t.co/Sde2p0ssbj

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

10Y > 4.50%

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

@onclejimmy Sorry, Joe is the way my dad would say Oil … old guy some slang involved but it sticks with me when I see Oil I think they way it sounds then type it out…worked with my dad for 30yrs. Can’t help myself…

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

Rates stuck in a cage match:
10s flirting with 4.10% inflection. 2s eyeing 3.00%
If tariff cash gets refunded → UST supply shock?
Stocks cheer. Bonds blink. Fed whispers hikes?
Chaos headline. Range-bound tape. DipORtunity… or trap? 👀

https://t.co/oA2dvhawTF

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

10s vs 4.075% TLINE (#DipORtunity?) ...
Said another way, "...none shall pass"

https://t.co/7UkfHaHFez

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

#ZB1 breaking triangulated range (Fri) heads towards Nov '25 highs (118'15) while nobody's watchin', in @Investingcom style ... futures

#2yy lowest since '22, 3.00% next?

20s in week ahead, #Truflation and #CPI

... a look back (and ahead): https://t.co/oA2dvhawTF

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

Today's note (https://t.co/oA2dvhawTF) offers insight from couple of strategy experts, dare I say legends (@albertedwards99 offers recession indicator as @tdgraff comments on MBS initiative) ...

#NFP up shortly, Global Wall recap / victory laps to follow

[Edward Bolingbroke @EddBolingbroke]

Whale watching 🐳👀…

….Open interest has rocketed in 10-year March 113.50 calls over the past week, follows huge buy flows costing multi-millions. The position targets a 10-year yield back to 4% area...🚀🚀 @Interest_Rates 👇

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

final thoughts for 2025, "risks to the bull steepening; tempered bearishness; RangeZILLA" here: https://t.co/oA2dvhawTF

Meanwhile, BBG on why equity CONsensus a worry: https://t.co/s7tNgw2DW3

Yardeni on 7700 tgt: https://t.co/xRuaL2GUZw

#Got2s?

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

Followed (George, for awhile) and following, now …thank you @DiMartinoBooth …

[Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth]

If you don’t follow @bondstrategist and @onechancefreedm you’re doing yourself a disservice.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

FORMER US VICE PRESIDENT DICK CHENEY DIES AT 84, CNN REPORTS

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

15yrs ago, speech by (then) FRBDallas pres Richard Fisher, "Rangers, Yankees and Federal Open Market Committee: One Game at a Time":
https://t.co/D5dQgtDGi1 ... Fortunate to have contributed TO speech (letter exchange, grateful to have met) https://t.co/mIqKkz3zFv

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

▪️mystery trader (@zerohedge) w/record FF bet (@CMEGroup) & cuts priced (@EddBolingbroke )
▪️the Fed's 3rd mandate ...
▪️foreign PRIVATE buyers USTs ...

... and some more ahead of the Fed:
https://t.co/oA2dvhawTF

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

USTs steady: #Got5s; "Fed put unleashed"; Yield Curve message; wake me up when September ends (h/t @granthawkridge); Mortgage spread 'good news' (h/t @Redfin)

more, context: https://t.co/oA2dvh9Z47

[steve feiss @stevefeiss]

#Treasuries

Urge any and all who are in a seat and close enough to the action, to go ahead and vote ... rest of us trying to play along at home are dyin' to know exactly whatever it was ...

[Edward Bolingbroke @EddBolingbroke]

Today’s mid-session Treasury futures dump, let’s end the debate: