Increased my position in $ABCL by 4.7X today.
Long 4764 shares with a cost basis of $2.05
The portfolio is now at an ATH ๐ฅ
1 year performance 321.4%๐ข
3 year performance 804%๐ข
Thank you:
$PLTR
$TSLA
$FUBO
$HIMS
Call me crazy, but $ZETA should be up on the $IBM news, not down.
Dollars flowing from legacy tech to AI is a good and necessary thing for AI winners. And $ZETA is one of the clearest AI winners in the whole stock market.
$Fubo this one really damaged me mentally and financially, takes a lot but I'm back in $10.08.
All the best I hope any shareholders still left in this ticket regain some money back.
God bless.
$ELF is a screaming buy and hardly anyone is noticing. This is an easy 2x and sooner than most expect. People will chase this in the $70s, $80s and eventually $100.
I'd rather buy here.
$ELF today is LOWER than it was during the Liberation crash in Apr 25'
Let me tell you why I think this is ABSURD:
Liberation Day tariffs hurt Elf so much because 75% of its products are made in China. The initial tariffs reported were around 170%, and have since been brought down to about 55%
This is still high, but its far below the initial reported number. At the same time, this is NOT the first time $ELF has had to deal with tariffs on China.
Elf estimated roughly $50M in annual cost headwinds, & they raised prices by $1 globally on all products on Aug 1, 2025, to help offset these costs
Elf products are already (and still) extremely affordable compared to the high-quality alternatives ($EL products), so this price raise is not something that will make or break Elf customers
It pulled back FY26 guidance because tariff visibility was so uncertain & margins were being pressured
Something that's still incredibly slept-on is the Rhode acquisition, which is moving from DTC into Sephora U.S., Canada, U.K., & other countries all across Europe.
The international business at $ELF is heating up, and the long-term runway there is massive.
- Adj. EBITDA: +79% YoY ($123M)
- 28 consecutive quarters of net sales growth
- 1 of 6 consumer companies (out of 546) that have grown for 28 consecutive quarters (>20% avg growth/quarter)
- $ELF doubled the cosmetics & skin care industry in YoY consumption
- Has grown from 5% to 13% from 2020 -> 2025 for cosmetics $ share
- Rhode x Sephora launch was 2x larger than any other brand launch (in US & Canada) & was 5x larger than any other brand launch in the UK
- Only penetrated 20% of international sales, massive runway ahead (Int'l +44% YoY growth)
- Gross margin 71% (-30bps YoY)
- SG&A down from 54% to 51% as a % of net sales YoY
- Market & digital investment down from 27% to 21% as a % of net sales YoY
- 68% EPS growth YoY (72% NI growth YoY)
- Raised FY26 sales outlook from 19% to 22.5%
- Guiding for 70% annualized net sales growth for Rhode ($262.5M)
- 2H 2026 32% net sales growth (acceleration into the back half of the year)
- $324.5M of FY26 Adj. EBITDA vs $304M prior guide
$ELF is the #1 brand amongst Millennials, Gen-Z, & Gen Alpha... They are the future of cosmetics/skin care/beauty
I have released stock price projections from these levels on my X page, I can link them in the comments.
Please battle test my thesis by asking any questions you can think of or any bearish comments/concerns