d-crawler

[Ki Young Ju @ki_young_ju]

Bitcoin-to-altcoin asset rotation that once fueled alt seasons has basically disappeared.

BTC-pair altcoin volume has collapsed since 2021.

The era of "alts pumping just because BTC pumps" may be over.

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

I was a technical co-founder at three startups.

Went through YC, raised millions, one company exited for 9 figures, yada yada...

Fable 5 is an entire product team in a box.

CTO, VP of engineering, product manager, senior dev, UX expert, UI designer, even sales/marketing...

It does it all.

And at a much higher level than most humans.

Around the clock, multiple threads running simultaneously.

I see people saying that token-based billing is a sign the AI bubble is nearing a peak.

I don't see an AI bubble.
I see a salaried employee bubble.

After using Fable 5 I can confidently say:

I'd much rather spend $200K on tokens for Fable 5 than hire a single human that does one of those roles

(and only on weekdays when they're feeling focused, motivated, etc.)

If token billing means choosing between cutting AI usage vs. cutting employees...

Every CFO knows which line item goes first.

But this tool only produces value in the right hands.

The wrong employee will run up a token bill with nothing to show for it.

The right employee will turn tokens into bottom-line improvements.

If you're an employee, focus on proving you know how to turn tokens into value for your company.

OR relationship-max harder than ever.

If you're an entrepreneur, you have an entire expert product, marketing, and sales team at your fingertips for a fraction of the cost of the human equivalent.

Use it to help other people at scale and you will win big.

As an investor... this keeps me very bullish on AI.

If you have capital to allocate, you want to put it into an industry seeing exponential growth.

And you want to take advantage of all the moments that people lose sight of the big picture.

This genie's not going back in the bottle.

In fact, it only just escaped.

[Steven Goldstein @AlphaMind101]

Trading is not an intellectual activity. It's an emotional one.

The decisions that cost you money aren't analytical failures. They're emotional ones. Fear. Greed. Ego. The inability to pull the trigger. The inability to let go.

Over-intellectualising pulls you toward analysis and perfectionism and away from the one thing that actually matters: taking risk.

The best traders don't eliminate the emotional side. They learn to work with it. Ignore it at your peril — it's always there, and it will always find you.

[JT @lokoyacap]

You should assume Google is well aware of the global constraints we all read about daily and, more importantly, the lead times for adding any capacity of significance for the parts of the supply chain they can control.

Said differently, if you wanted to, for example, 2X or 3X TPU racks for 2027, obviously you cannot wait until December 2026. You have to do it right now and you have to do it at scale via pre-funding/prebuys/very large commits. No one is going to scale up dedicated capacity otherwise. Ie exactly what NVDA is doing; don’t think for a second the hyperscalers haven’t been taking notes.

Hence this, followed by what is likely an imminent gigantic debt raise as @TMTLongShort has already highlighted.

For an infamously secretive co, Google is pretty literally telling you what they are planning for 2027/2028.

[Adam Singer @AdamSinger]

Software roaring back after the market realizes 20-something make money online bros would never go through the 1,000 steps necessary to actually build and sell software into enterprises, and B2B SaaS is not as easy as asking a chatbot to "make no mistakes"

[d-crawler @stockovich]

@stackhodler Have been working as a technical PM for well over +10 years, agree with everything you said. Same experience. Compute = infinite demand.

[d-crawler @stockovich]

I saw a documentary about this, it’s a real thing.
Russia have apparently used it since long ago, I’m talking decades. They train dolphins - equipped with explosive devices - to swim close to e.g. ships out at sea or harbors and blow themselves up with some weird trigger shit. They even trained them ”how to install” such devices on ships (prolly through magnetic detachment) and then swim away

[d-crawler @stockovich]

@themarketradar I was in the ”wtf is happening how can markets rally fucking hell hole my oil beta positions is crashing they should be running” camp. Gave up. Cried. Stopped crying. Bought everything belonging to the ”ai infrastructure picks and shovels” camp. Happy. Flourishing. In my lane.

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability.

The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is a group of reactions laughing at various quirks of the models, hallucinations, etc. Yes I also saw the viral videos of OpenAI's Advanced Voice mode fumbling simple queries like "should I drive or walk to the carwash". The thing is that these free and old/deprecated models don't reflect the capability in the latest round of state of the art agentic models of this year, especially OpenAI Codex and Claude Code.

But that brings me to the second issue. Even if people paid $200/month to use the state of the art models, a lot of the capabilities are relatively "peaky" in highly technical areas. Typical queries around search, writing, advice, etc. are *not* the domain that has made the most noticeable and dramatic strides in capability. Partly, this is due to the technical details of reinforcement learning and its use of verifiable rewards. But partly, it's also because these use cases are not sufficiently prioritized by the companies in their hillclimbing because they don't lead to as much $$$ value. The goldmines are elsewhere, and the focus comes along.

So that brings me to the second group of people, who *both* 1) pay for and use the state of the art frontier agentic models (OpenAI Codex / Claude Code) and 2) do so professionally in technical domains like programming, math and research. This group of people is subject to the highest amount of "AI Psychosis" because the recent improvements in these domains as of this year have been nothing short of staggering. When you hand a computer terminal to one of these models, you can now watch them melt programming problems that you'd normally expect to take days/weeks of work. It's this second group of people that assigns a much greater gravity to the capabilities, their slope, and various cyber-related repercussions.

TLDR the people in these two groups are speaking past each other. It really is simultaneously the case that OpenAI's free and I think slightly orphaned (?) "Advanced Voice Mode" will fumble the dumbest questions in your Instagram's reels and *at the same time*, OpenAI's highest-tier and paid Codex model will go off for 1 hour to coherently restructure an entire code base, or find and exploit vulnerabilities in computer systems. This part really works and has made dramatic strides because 2 properties: 1) these domains offer explicit reward functions that are verifiable meaning they are easily amenable to reinforcement learning training (e.g. unit tests passed yes or no, in contrast to writing, which is much harder to explicitly judge), but also 2) they are a lot more valuable in b2b settings, meaning that the biggest fraction of the team is focused on improving them. So here we are.

[d-crawler @stockovich]

@krugman87 Just curious if you happen to have any thoughts/opinions; just how much do you think the administrations efforts to short the futures actually helps, if anything? I mean the physical is obviously different from paper… doesn’t this just fuck things up even more?

[Citrini @citrini]

The capex was worth it.

[d-crawler @stockovich]

@krugman87 No interest in ”new energy” ETFs containing electrical/grid plays for AI energy needs?

[d-crawler @stockovich]

I think this can go a lot more south than what many expects. Why wouldn’t Iran continue fighting for longer? Sure, their people will continue suffering, but they don’t seem to care that much about that. What they do care about though is making other countries suffer, especially US and their allies, and continue fighting makes that a given the longer they keep going

[d-crawler @stockovich]

@krugman87 Just invested in SPOG.L, seems like a pretty good European alternative to the one you’re mentioning

[d-crawler @stockovich]

@themarketradar Appreciate the honesty. So risk off until further notice then?

[d-crawler @stockovich]

@krugman87 I’m laugh-crying simultaneously while reading this. It’s such an extreme prediction that it can only be true. Donaldo will deliver.

[d-crawler @stockovich]

@ShortSeller Wishing you all the best! And thanks for great analys, appreciated!

[d-crawler @stockovich]

@CavanXy Thanks for great analysis as usual baws, appreciated 🫶

[Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. @RudyHavenstein]

You know things are messed up when your "enemy" calls your government a "pedophile regime" and you really can't refute that.

[d-crawler @stockovich]

@ShortSeller Thanks for great analysis, appreciate it!