Stocks DD

Do your own DD. I am not a financial advisor. Tweets are just opinions NOT financial advice.
disclaimer

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

China's AI Knife Fight: DeepSeek's New Model Runs 100x Cheaper Than Anthropic's Flagship https://t.co/gI8yYG6f0o

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@chamath When can we anticipate 2 events
1. massive write downs AI model company valuations - OpenAI, Ant, Gemini, xAI, etc
2. Debt ( financing capex for AI infr build out) defaults/markdowns

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@TKL_Adam Forward p/e, ev/ebitda (source: Chatgpt)

$TSLA
~180x, ~100x
$SPCX
~42x, ~35–40x
$PLTR
~83–84x, ~142x

Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@mcuban 1.Drug's value
(OS, QoL, Cure rates,Disease prevntion,Functionaloutcomes)
2.Drug's price
2 shud be factored & a new tier of coverge shd be created where drug value is low & drugprice is high. Ppl can opt out or opt in for this new coverage tier. Will reduce premium as u optout

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@smallcapharma Maybe the 10k prescribers (who are aware of cardamyst & are contacted by Salesforce) are giving oral pills or direct ablation to rest of the patients with 18,600 weekly psvt episodes even after a year of this drug in market..Maybe it's not filling a gap in treatment landscape

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@smallcapharma Nonsense. This stock will not go anywhere with 500Rx/week..that's $15m/year run rate. After 1 year of sales & contacting all 10K prescribers & with express scripts(105m lives)coverage,if they can only do 500Rx/week out of their claimed 19230 psvt episodes/week, then s/t is wrong.

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@smallcapharma @MLmeign1 How is this "impressively solid"! Back in May didn't they say their sales force had already called > third of 10K prescribers. Back in March 30th express scripts(covers 105m lives) started covering..And in late June this is just doing 120Rx/week ?!? Pretty bad imo. NOT FI advice

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

When innovative disruptions happen, many businesses become irrelevant. p/e is an irrelevant metric when e is not durable. Eg; 20 years ago a movie theater company was trading wth p/e of <5. Dvd rental, online streaming took off & the movie theater business went belly up #SAAS?

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@alex__pitti @smallcapharma then they had a good reason to take it up so they could exercise their $1.5 SP series A warrants expiring July 2026...now that most of that is exercised we have nothing now..

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@smallcapharma Isn't $unh drug coverage managed via optumRx ?

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@smallcapharma @alex__pitti Disagree. Even if stock price moves a bit,we don't know the shenanigans (short selling, price to cover, rinse, repeat) of series B holders. MGMT also has long ways to prove that this can sell 4000Rx/week vs current 150Rx?/week. AFib is 2029. This is NOT investment advice

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@Simple_4_Life I think they only sold 300Rx in April. Cardamyst is in mkt since late Jan & sales force since Feb have already reached out to 1/3rd of 10k prescribers. Yes, prior auth is slowing things & theyre yet to sign deals with optumRx & CVS. Late March they signed with express script

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@smallcapharma What I said was just the PBM CVS/caremark deal pr may not do much to stock price.We have to see if weekly Rx reaches a level of 4000/wk say in 12 mths, which based on their estimates of PSVT populatn shouldn't be hard.its unclear how many patients have PSVT..it's all guestimates

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@Nithin0dha There is a long term currency depreciation issue that needs to be addressed first. Country needs to figure out how to meet it's domestic energy & gold/silver demand without reliance on imports. Without which it becomes un-investible in the long run

[Stocks DD @stocksdd]

@smallcapharma @alex__pitti Why cant they first execute for 12 months & get Rx sales to a level where they don't have to keep diluting shareholders? Haven't they done enuf of it. Imo, CVS/optumRx are not catalysts. Let em get scripts to 4000/week..which based on their bloated PVST estimates should be easy