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SATOSHI AND SATYA
I agree with some of Samo’s other points in the thread — but exit amplifies voice.
1) It’s only because Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore existed that Deng Xiaoping had a model to turn around China.
All the Chinese people who wanted to leave the PRC told everyone that something was wrong. The military strength of tiny capitalist Taiwan was even becoming comparable to the PRC in 1978. Without the evidence that Chinese people could live better lives, a “capitalist roader” like Deng would never have taken power.
2) Similarly, it’s only because of Apple and Google that Satya Nadella had a model to turn around Microsoft. All the Microsoft customers who left for those companies told him something was wrong, and proved the case for a “cloud roader” to take power — leaning into cloud, mobile, and now even stealing a march on Google with AI.
3) But turnaround of this kind is extremely difficult and often doesn’t work. So for the individual with no realistic chance of taking power and executing a turnaround (or doing so as a group), like the millions of Chinese who weren’t Deng or the millions of customers that didn’t want to wait a decade for Ballmer to be replaced, the true vote against a failing regime is exit.
4) Sometimes the place these people are leaving fixes itself, and sometimes it doesn’t, but at least rather than just complaining they show that the problems were real enough to actually pick up stakes and leave. The exiters shock people out of complacency with an unfakable high cost signal — because it’s a huge pain to leave. The ultimate civic duty, patriotism *as* dissent.
5) In general, we need both Satoshis and Satyas. People who execute the exit *and* people who tough it out for the turnaround.
6) But these are complementary strategies: because both Satoshi and Satya understand there is something deeply broken with the prevailing order. Neither are Ballmers.
While everyone rushes to back the “picks and shovels” of AI, I want to back founders trying to find “gold” - i.e create products that change how people work and live. Here are key takeaways from my new post on building lasting value in AI-first products
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LFG!
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