Teslaboratory

British Tesla and Elon Musk fan, $TSLA shareholder and Cybertruck reservation holder

[Ashok Elluswamy @aelluswamy]

FSD v14 Lite is now rolling out to AI3 early-access customers. Based on the feedback, will rollout to more customers over the next few weeks.

This build distills the driving behavior from AI4’s v14 series into both the camera and compute config of AI3. It includes destination options and speed profiles on city roads, but more importantly significantly improved safety.

We hope you’ll enjoy it, once the build ships wide.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@sophiaenoch1 @StefanFSchubert Having kids means you will do anything to ensure that they live and are happy, for you love them more than your own life a thousand times over, and there is no chance that you will fall in love with an AI instead.

Remember these words.

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

https://t.co/7l7Jef99QZ

[Alan Smith @AlanJLSmith]

Suppose that once a week, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to £100.

If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.

The fifth would pay £1.

The sixth would pay £3.

The seventh would pay £7.

The eighth would pay £12.

The ninth would pay £18.

And the tenth man (the richest) would pay £59.　

So, that’s what they decided to do.

The ten men drank in the bar every week and seemed quite happy with the arrangement until, one day, the owner caused them a little problem.

“Since you are all such good customers,” he said, “I’m going to reduce the cost of your weekly beer by £20.”

Drinks for the ten men would now cost just £80.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes.

So the first four men were unaffected.

They would still drink for free but what about the other six men?

The paying customers? How could they divide the £20 windfall so that everyone would get his fair share?

They realized that £20 divided by six is £3.33, but if they subtracted that from everybody’s share then not only would the first four men still be drinking for free but the fifth and sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer.　

So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fairer to reduce each man’s bill by a higher percentage.

They decided to follow the principle of the tax system they had been using and he proceeded to work out the amounts he suggested that each should now pay.

And so, the fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (a 100% saving).

The sixth man now paid £2 instead of £3 (a 33% saving).

The seventh man now paid £5 instead of £7 (a 28% saving).

The eighth man now paid £9 instead of £12 (a 25% saving).

The ninth man now paid £14 instead of £18 (a 22% saving).

And the tenth man now paid £49 instead of £59 (a 16% saving).　

Each of the last six was better off than before with the first four continuing to drink for free.　

But, once outside the bar, the men began to compare their savings. “I only got £1 out of the £20 saving,” declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man, “but he got £10!“　

“Yeah, that’s right,” exclaimed the fifth man. “I only saved a £1 too. It’s unfair that he got ten times more benefit than me!”　

“That’s true!” shouted the seventh man. “Why should he get £10 back, when I only got £2? The wealthy get all the breaks!”　

“Wait a minute,” yelled the first four men in unison, “we didn’t get anything at all. This new tax system exploits the poor!”

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.　

The next week the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had their beers without him.

But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important – they didn’t have enough money between all of them to pay for even half of the bill!　

And that’s how it works.

Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy and they just might not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas, where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.　

For those who understand, no explanation is needed.

For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible.

[Caleb Hammer @sircalebhammer]

Look at the what the UK does, do the opposite, and you’ll have a successful country.

[Teslaboratory @teslaboratory]

@Cycle_Watcher @grok remind me in 40 days

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

What’s happening in gold in 2025 reminds me of what happened in subprime in 2007. When the subprime market blew up, an event I had warned about for years, it was a harbinger of the financial crisis that hit the following year. Yet few on Wall Street perceived the warning. Gold’s surge in 2025 likely portends a U.S. dollar and sovereign debt crisis next year that will make the 2008 financial crisis look like a Sunday school picnic. Yet, as was the case in 2007, few on Wall Street perceive the significance of the warning.

[Teslaboratory @teslaboratory]

@IanGee2023 @Keir_Starmer @grok Is this true?

[Lord Miles @Lordmiles]

I’m fully leaving the UK on March 31st.

The tax year begins on April 1st, I’ll no longer be a UK tax resident, I’ll get to pay ZERO income tax.

And to be frank, the UK has gone to shit.

Why should I continue to waste my hard earned money by paying 45% of it to a government that hates white christians?

Especially when the UK is crime ridden, immigrant ridden, polluted, now architecturally ugly, depressing in winter, relatively expensive, cold year round, overall depressing, seemingly on the verge of civil war etc?

What’s the good deal in England for anyone who has options?

What business owners look at England and go “yeah this is where I want to live”.

Quite honestly, for me, the defining factor is the migrants.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

WHY DONALD TRUMP WANTS THE MARKET TO CRASH

….in the short term ⬇️

This chart below sums up the reasoning behind what the current adminstration is doing and why it is having adverse effects on the market.

Kris @KrisPatel99 did a great job today explaining this more in depth on the market open & I think the thesis checks out:

1. We have $7T of debt we need to pay in the next 6 months…if we don’t pay it, we’ll have to refinance.

2. The Trump admin does NOT want to refinance at a 4%+ rate…the 10yr at one point this year was 4.8%.

3. How do you get the 10yr to come down? Markets need to show weakness in growth, DOGE has to be perceived as actually working, interest rates need to come down.

The way to do that is to create massive uncertainties — aka tariffs — which can slow down growth in the short term, get the bond market to start BUYING bonds ASAP because of how scared they are of touching stocks (causing yields to fall which is what we need to refinance the debt) and then that gives the Fed the authority to lower rates which continues to bring yields down.

So, although conventional wisdom says tariffs are inflationary and the 10yr should be spiking on more tariffs — it’s actually going down because its bringing so much uncertainly to equity markets that people are selling stocks and buying bonds!

Which is exactly what the Trump administration wants to happen in the short term in order to bring refinancing costs down.

Short term pain for long term gain?

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Excellent summary of the game plan

[Robert Scoble @Scobleizer]

Waymo vs Tesla 2030.

Tonight I was at an AI party in San Francisco. Other than talking about @deepseek_ai and its new model that has the AI world shocked, and the fight between @sama and @elonmusk we had an interesting discussion about the future of autonomous vehicles.

One guy, who works for OpenAI, was praising @Waymo. Says he loves it a lot more than @Uber. Why?

"It's a better experience."

"Even though it costs 20% more?" I asked him.

"20%? Try double."

"Really?"

He pulled out his phone, opened up Uber, which charged $10.50 for a ride to Fisherman's Wharf.

"But you gotta add a tip for Uber."

So that brings the bill to $13 for Uber.

Then he pulled out Waymo. It charged $22 for the same ride.

"When you say better experience you mean there's no smelly driver that talks too much?"

Yeah.

Why is the Waymo more expensive than Uber?

Well, Google/Waymo has put more than a decade of R&D in. So it needs to recoup that for its investors.

Then you look at the vehicle. It costs about $150,000 with a ton of LiDARs and expensive compute. Maybe more since USA will put a tarriff on the vehicles that @ZeekrGlobal is making for it.

But then you have to look at the costs to manufacture the car.

That brings us to 2030 and how Waymo and Tesla will be competing.

It is my thesis that Tesla will be way cheaper AND have a way better experience.

Here's why:

1. Tesla already had its customers pay for the R&D by selling FSD (we paid $8,000 for that on our new Model Y). So it doesn't have to pass along those costs to its Robotaxi customers like Waymo is having to right now.

2. Tesla's vehicle is way way cheaper to make than a Waymo. Why? Its manufacturing lead. The Cybercab is only 80 parts. Compare that to the hundreds that other vehicles take. Also, its unbox process that will be used to make a Cybercab will make it possible to make a lot more vehicles per hour per line in a smaller space.

3. Cost per mile. Waymo's LiDARs disrupt air going over the vehicle, making it less efficient per mile. That adds to per mile cost AND makes its vehicles look dystopian AND makes its vehicles noisier inside.

4. Better personalization. Each Tesla has digital vents which other vehicle makers have refused to put in. And that's just the start. You'll see a lot more when Grok comes to Tesla's later this year.

5. Better experience for each passenger. By focusing on only two seats, with no steering wheel, Tesla will have a much better experience for each rider and is lighter, too. Which means it is cheaper per mile and has a better experience. Just watch @FutureAZA's many videos on Cybercab.

6. A bigger network of both Robotaxi cars (no human drivers and might even be owned by Tesla) AND cars that can drive by themselves that private citizens can own. This will open Tesla up to many use cases that Waymo can't match. Like I can send my own vehicle over to my friend's house and pick him up, which since we are going to Las Vegas in March will save us both time and give us both better experiences.

7. Better brand. Everyone knows Tesla, and everyone knows how nice their cars are to be in. Does anyone in Kansas City know what a Waymo is? No. Will they? Sure, but it will take a lot of marketing effort to get the brand to be trusted by most Americans, not to mention people elsewhere in the world.

Back to the fleet size. This will matter A LOT by 2030. Everything you do with transportation will be reflected by the fleet size. I don't see anyone catching up to that. Grok could tell you how many people are waiting in line at a McDonalds. Waymo can guess, but it won't have enough of a fleet to really get you accurate data. And even if it does somehow get the fleet size, it will be in a vehicle that isn't as good for doing what we will want to do in an autonomous vehicle, like playing video games, watching movies, listening to music, or talking to friends.

Why? The Cybercab and Tesla's new vehicles are WAY better designed for riders. And will be way cheaper to boot. And more profitable for investors.

I just don't see how Waymo matters in 2030.

Do you?

[Fernando Cao @thefernandocz]

In January 2023, Tesla did something unthinkable:

They slashed ALL prices by 20% & destroyed their profit margins overnight.

No one understood why they did it.

But Elon saw something no one else did...

Here's the real explanation (& why it's his boldest move yet) 🧵

[Whole Mars Catalog @wholemars]

$TSLA

[Tesla AI @Tesla_AI]

As October comes to a close, here's an update on the releases

What we completed:
- End-to-end on highway has shipped to ~50k customers with v12.5.6.1
- Cybertruck build that improves responsiveness
- Successful We, Robot event with 50 autonomous Teslas safely transporting over 2,000 passengers

What's coming next:
- Full rollout of end-to-end highway driving to all AI4 users, targeted for early next week, including enhancements in stop smoothness, less annoying bad weather notifications, and other safety improvements
- Improved v12.5.x models for AI3 city driving
- Actually Smart Summon release to Europe, China and other regions of the world
- v13 is a package of following major technology upgrades:
- 36 Hz, full-resolution AI4 video inputs
- Native AI4 inputs and neural network architectures
- 3x model size scaling
- 3x model context length scaling
- 4.2x data scaling
- 5x training compute scaling (enabled by the Cortex training cluster)
- Much improved reward predictions for collision avoidance, following traffic controls, navigation, etc.
- Efficient representation of maps and navigation inputs
- Audio inputs for better handling of emergency vehicles
- Redesigned controller for smoother, more accurate tracking
- Integrated unpark, reverse, and park capabilities
- Support for destination options including pulling over, parking in a spot, driveway, or garage
- Improved camera cleaning and handling of camera occlusions

We have integrated several of these improvements and are already seeing a 4x increase in miles between necessary interventions compared to v12.5.4.
This lays the foundation for the v13 series, and we are targeting to ship v13.0 to internal customers by the end of this week.
Most of the remaining items are independently validated and will be integrated over November in a series of point releases.

We are targeting a wide release with v13.3 with most of the above improvements for AI4 vehicles around Thanksgiving!

[Teslaconomics @Teslaconomics]

Always remember, the longer the base, the bigger the breakout $TSLA

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

You know it's true.

$TSLA

[Shaun Maguire @shaunmmaguire]

We @sequoia invested $800m into the @X take private

We were ridiculed for two years for it

But I’m confident we’ll get the last laugh

Never bet against Elon

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@Thib_DP Must be absolute propaganda that people are getting in Europe.

X is the antidote!

[Thibault @thib_boi]

As a European, I can tell you it takes a LOT of deprogramming to understand why Trump is popular and basically good for the US.

I did it but I couldn’t have without X and a few podcasts.

Literally unfathomable to 99% of my friends.