PlayaBull

Compounding,but always learning.“If you’re not a liberal when you’re 25, you have no heart.If you’re not a conservative by the time you’re 35,you have no brain”

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

AI infra can and will retrace.
Every pullback will have the bubble boys victory lapping because they missed the greatest trade in decades.

Then they’ll watch it rip higher again in great agony.

[Citrini @citrini]

People keep confusing a bubble with “stocks go up and get overvalued”. A bubble is when when a prevailing trend and a prevailing misconception about that trend interact reflexively, each reinforcing the other until the gap between perception and reality becomes unsustainable.

A bubble is not when everyone realizes that right now every iota of AI demand eventually, at some point upstream, must move through memory OEMs. Nor is it when estimates continue rising because things are better than expected. And it’s not just when stocks trade expensive to historical valuations.

The reason behind the moves in the AI infrastructure layer so far have been simply that we don’t have enough. They’ve been driven by the fundamental reality more than the perception of the future. It’s why the bulk of the most bullish parts of this cycle have been lumpy and centered around earnings season when companies uniformly come out and confirm there’s still not enough. In the bubble, the reality is driven by the market - not the other way around.

Everyone keeps saying “people are gonna freak out if it’s not a bubble!”. I think that’s silly, we have a transformative new technology that needs crazy capital to fuel it coming to fruition, that has and always will result in a bubble as long as we have financial markets.

But if you want to call the top in a bubble, you need a much stronger view on what the misconception is and what negative catalyst forces broad perception to align with realizing it than you do on valuation.

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@naiivememe The charts are upside down in that hemisphere right? Like the toilet bowl flush turning the opposite way…

[steve2bacon @steve2bacon]

“this is why i’ve been all cash since april”

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@calvinfroedge Imagine…

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@blondesnmoney @MarketPalmer_ 2028: Samsung :)

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@JohnPlatner @zephyr_z9 A breather is necessary, but you ain’t stopping this train with all the capex coming in. (For the quality stuff)

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@zephyr_z9 Absolutely not, there is froth there for sure. However; bullish for memory, substrates, leading edge, semicap et al. Shitcos gonna shitco for sure.

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@zephyr_z9 Shitcos are shitcos, Everspin isn’t worth that even when Nasdaq is 35000:) Your post reads different though, and your words carry weight brother🙏

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@Franny8 Couldn’t agree more. No need to be contrarian just to look intelligent, the trade is obvious.

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

$GOOG and $META raising billions to spend on AI infrastructure, and people are selling the benefactors… I smell opportunity.

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@saxena_puru Wait, you called top on memory stocks 2-3 months ago sir.

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@business Getting closer… @blondesnmoney

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@valuedrift AI infra capex doesn't care much about the oil price, Broadcom guidance and bad interpretation of China memory news is the culprit, nothing but a breather before AI infra goes up again IMO.

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

Notice how most people that post "KOSPI Down Big" never post when KOSPI is up the same amount. Lesson in there.

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@TheSopranosClub Yes, and it wouldn’t be cinematic…

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@shortbus_ace @liqpreference Predicted 2 of the last 20 crashes. Plus he says this while he is long AI infra.

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@CuiBonoCapital Deerfield beach, Jupiter, Palm Beach/Gardens…

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@internpierre I am sure if they were to shut them down they can source from elsewhere, and they have a contingency plan in place.

[PlayaBull @teslabulltr]

@poludniowapraga @calvinfroedge I suggest you look at their last quarter then. A quick look at their balance sheet should answer your concerns.