Master Chief

Global Macro Rates/FX

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

@BobEUnlimited @ericwallerstein Why should spending ex gas stations surge when gas prices rise?

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

New tariff regime benefits Brazil, China and other EM, but marginally hurts EU/UK

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

The US military build-up is meaningful but still far below 1991/2003 #Iran

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

The latest #IMF #WEO studies the impact of undermining central bank independence on macro variables: Six months after politically motivated
transitions, real rates -1.6%, fx -3.1%, inflation/expectations +1.7%

@IMFNews

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

Interesting UK productivity upgrade by @resfoundation at a time where the OBR will downgrade their estimates

#UKBudget

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

GS update on US tariff passthrough: 55% US consumers, 22% US businesses, 18% foreign exporters, 5% evaded

#TradeWar #TariffImpact

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

When will the TACO come on these newly threatened tariffs on China expected to start on Nov 1?

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

What a chart. Medium-term, Germany will transition from energy-heavy to tech-focussed manufacturing as part of the defense roll-out, so I expect this to stabilize

[Thorsten Polleit @ThorstenPolleit]

BREAKING NEWS:
In Aug '25, German industrial production collapsed 4.3% m/m.
Germany is in free fall - headed for the third consecutive recession year.

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

@DanielKral1 I feel investors are losing patience just when Germany is picking up. Infra spending execution was only approved a few weeks ago, so naturally can‘t see an effect there yet

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

@DanielKral1 Agreed, things were always going to look worse before they pick up next year. Also visible in the gap between current situation vs expectation surveys in ifo/zew etc

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

@jeuasommenulle Anyone taking off around the transition wasn‘t serious in the first place

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

Massive surprise win for #Takaichi in #LDP leadership elections. JGB curve flattened and JPY strenghtened into the event, so expect the opposite on Monday open. Takaichi was open lately to letting BoJ hike, but expect BoJ Oct meeting to reprice lower too on the kneejerk

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

Shutdowns are worth ~10bp/GDP per week and the last one took 35 days in 2018/19 (under Trump). The difference this time is #Trump says he wants to fire govt employees, instead of putting them on furlough. The longer the #shutdown goes on, the larger will be the impact on data

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

Govt shutdown chances up at 60% as we approach 1st Oct. Passing another continuing resolution risks worsening the US #deficit yet again… US #Fiscal remains top of mind

#governmentshutdown

[Atlanta Fed @AtlantaFed]

Sep 26: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data by incorporating #BEAdata in addition to updated nowcasts from the @ClevelandFed and the Atlanta Fed: https://t.co/LMt05ko0Se

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

Looking for bearish #UK trades into the budget. Gilt auctions tailing, BoE ruined momentum with QT, and then headlines like Burnham saying: “We’ve got to get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets.” #Gilt

[Austan Goolsbee @Austan_Goolsbee]

This morning, the @chicagofed introduced new labor market indicators that combine private sector data with official labor statistics to provide a real-time view of hiring, layoffs and other job separations, and an early forecast of the unemployment rate. https://t.co/iln1LpPNAr.

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

Big supply week in EGB with ~25mio net dv01 coming to the market. If you don‘t trade supply events, at least be aware they‘re happening and don‘t be surprised why Bunds sell off.

#EGB #Bund @ecb

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

@VKMacro Everytime this pair reaches either end of the range the narrative always turns and we reverse. It‘s also overshot its rates fv, so looks a bit stretched to me/wouldn‘t chase

[Master Chief @the_macro_halo]

Came across a new book lately which imagines Russia attacking #NATO via Estonia in 2028

It's called "If Russia Wins" by Carlo Masala

Started this today and then see these headlines...

[Clash Report @clashreport]

BREAKING: Estonia says three Russian MiG-31 jets entered Estonian airspace without permission and stayed there for a total of 12 minutes.