$SPY ⚠️Caution shorting here — institutional derisking & hedging not panicking.
Selling into FOMC often sets up buy the relief when the news isn’t as bad as feared. Fed likely on hold with “wait-and-see” language. Hawkish pivot unlikely with oil back in the 70s after the strait opening.
Short holiday week + mopex. Setup looks constructive into MOPEX.
Post-mopex gamma unpinning = 💣
Does it concern anyone else that treasury yields, which have been factoring in the inflationary pressures that Oil have fuelled in recent months, are little changed? Essentially, the bond market is calling the President’s bluff. $TNX $TLT $IEF
Losing Annual R2 "Strong Resistance Zone" was a big clue of which direction the wind was going to start blowing. Also the Ledger tightened up quickly, which is always a clue. Hope you've been cleaning up, buddy. 💪 My last couple days have been short side. Watch intramonth S2 on this chart for a flip back to bull (bulltrap?).
If anyone wonders why your portfolio feels like it's moving around a lot lately:
$VIX is sitting at 22.
A quick way to estimate the market's expected daily move is to take the VIX and divide it by 16 (the square root of 252 trading days).
22 ÷ 16 = 1.375%
That means the market is pricing in roughly 1.375% daily moves in $SPY. With $SPY around $732, that's approximately $10.07 swings per day.
For context, when the VIX was around 14 earlier this year, implied daily moves were only about 0.875%.
In other words, we're experiencing nearly double the day-to-day volatility compared to just a few weeks ago.
So if your portfolio feels more volatile lately, it's not necessarily because you're doing something wrong.
It's the environment.