True. Aside from Robotaxi dilution, I also see significant risk associated with Starship’s development. As we’ve seen before—and most recently with Blue Origin—one anomaly can set a program back years.
At these valuations, the SpaceX thesis requires a rapidly reusable Starship. It’s an incredibly hard technical challenge with substantial risk. I would have bought SpaceX if I wanted exposure to a rocket company over the last 5–10 years. But I didn’t—I bought Tesla. I can assess Robotaxi risk by simply getting in my car and turning on FSD.
Regarding the merger you proposed, I suspect it would happen regardless of my vote. That said, I would probably vote in favor and then sell half of my Tesla shares before the transaction closes. This way, I could capture most of the upside and redeploy the capital into less risky assets.
FWIW, I’m a bit older than many Tesla /SpaceX investors and don’t want to wait 5–10–15 years for the potential SpaceX payoff.
@JOBhakdi I don’t think it is tradable until we see a significant change in robotaxi operations. Macro uncertainty and merger chatter are significant noise makers.
@nicksortor I hope to travel to DC later this year so I can see all of our monuments all tuned up and looking great. These people need to stop trashing our monuments!