thegoldbeast

Gold market tragic. With fourty one years in the gold market behind me, and at least thirty to go, I know it doesn't pay to be a perrenial bull or bear.

[thegoldbeast @thegoldbeast]

@TRAVmoneyofmine Look at the gold coal ratio. It tells you everything you need to know.

[Sama Hoole @SamaHoole]

A farmer dies in April 2026.

His son inherits the farm. The farm has been in the family since 1847.

The farm consists of: 300 acres of grazing pasture, a farmhouse built in 1892, a barn, a milking parlour, two tractors of varying ages, a Land Rover that runs about 70% of the time, and a herd of 180 Hereford-cross cattle.

On paper, the farm is worth approximately £3.2 million. This is because land near him has been bought recently by a London hedge fund looking for carbon credits, which has dragged the comparable value of every field within forty miles upward to a number nobody local can justify.

In cash, the farm produces a profit of about £28,000 a year in a good year. In a bad year it loses money. The son also works as a fencing contractor three days a week to keep the operation viable.

The inheritance tax bill on a £3.2 million estate, even at the reduced 20% rate, comes to approximately £140,000 after the increased threshold is applied. The son does not have £140,000. The son has never had £140,000. The son has £4,200 in his current account and an overdraft.

The son sells 60 acres to a developer to pay the tax. The developer puts solar panels on the 60 acres. The remaining herd cannot be sustained on the reduced land. The herd is sold. The barn becomes a holiday let.

A different family eats Brazilian beef this Christmas without knowing why the price went up.

The Treasury collects £140,000.

The land never produces British food again.

[CALL TO ACTIVISM @CalltoActivism]

🚨MAJOR BREAKING: Donald Trump has arrived in China to find that President XI did NOT greet him at the airport.

MAGA is in spin mode heralding the “red carpet treatment,” but the visit is already at a rocky start.

Instead of a presidential welcome, Trump was greeted by US Ambassador to China David Perdue; Xi’s vice president, Han Zheng; China’s Ambassador to Washington Xie Feng; and Executive Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu.

I’m sure Trump would hate if you shared this and rubbed it in all day long.

[thegoldbeast @thegoldbeast]

@TFMetals "THEY" did what?

[Shae Russell @shaearussell]

Precious metals on the hot/crazy scale according to Sean Russo @noahsrule & @LocantroTony at @GoldEventsAU

Date #silver
Marry #gold
Have a one night stand with #crypto

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Most insightful comment I've seen on this war.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇦🇪🇺🇸 Prominent UAE billionaire Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor just published an open letter to Trump. It's brutal.

"Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with Iran? Who gave you permission to turn our region into a battlefield?"

Al Habtoor's a major figure: billionaire, former diplomat, outspoken political voice in the Gulf. When he talks, UAE leadership's listening.

His questions:

* Was this your decision or Netanyahu's pressure?
* Did you calculate collateral damage before firing?
* You placed GCC countries at the heart of danger they didn't choose
* Your "Board of Peace" initiatives were funded by Gulf states. Now we're getting attacked. Where did that money go?
* You promised no wars. You've conducted operations in 7 countries: Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, Iran, Venezuela
* 658 airstrikes in your first year back = Biden's entire term (which you criticized)
* War costs $40-65 billion for operations, possibly $210 billion total
* Your approval rating's down 9% in 400 days
* Americans were promised peace. They're getting war funded by their taxes

The sharpest line: "Before the ink has dried on your Board of Peace initiative, we find ourselves facing military escalation that endangers the entire region. So where did those initiatives go?"

Al Habtoor's not some random critic. He's establishment. Connected. When UAE elites start publicly questioning Trump's decision-making, that's America's closest Arab allies saying "we didn't sign up for this."

The letter ends: "True leadership is not measured by war decisions, but by wisdom, respect for others, and pushing toward achieving peace."

@KhalafAlHabtoor

[thegoldbeast @thegoldbeast]

@CarloFerlauto @TheStalwart His chart is correct. You can name outperformers and some are spectacular but the gold equity indices have underperformed gold badly for years. That's a fact.

[thegoldbeast @thegoldbeast]

@adamseconomics Seriously mate. It's back to where it was a couple of weeks ago! The corrextion is no less nomal than the rally in the weeks that proceeded it. "Markets go up by the stairs and down by the lift shaft" is not an age old adage for nothing. That's exactly what your chart shows.

[thegoldbeast @thegoldbeast]

@davidbateman @CaitlinLong_ The real wealth distribution is to hundreds of millions of Asian and Indian long term holders and they are not conspiracy theorists, just realists.

[🇦🇺Craig Tindale @ctindale]

Return of Matter - Lego Edition

This is just a bit of fun . I was trying to explain this to my daughter and she made this version to explain to my 9 year granddaughter .

———
Okay. Imagine the whole world is a giant classroom doing a huge LEGO project.

At which the 4 year old chimed in “what about minecraft “

The old way (what the West thought)

For years, some kids (Western countries) said:
    •    “We’ll do the ideas and the instructions and the cool designs (software, money stuff, patents).”
    •    “Other kids can do the messy parts like getting the LEGO pieces out of bins, sorting them, cleaning them, and snapping them together (mining, refining, smelting, factories).”

And everyone believed the classroom had infinite LEGO. If you needed a blue brick, you’d just… get a blue brick. Easy.

The “Return of Matter” (the big problem)

Now the class has learned something embarrassing:

You can have the best LEGO instructions in the world…
…but if you don’t have the actual bricks, your spaceship is just a sad drawing.

So “matter” (real physical stuff like copper, rare earths, lithium, antimony, etc.) has come back as the boss.

The sneaky twist (the “Feedstock Paradox”)

Some kids say: “But we OWN a LEGO factory!” (a mine)

Your grandad’s point is:
    •    Owning a mine is like owning a box of dirty mixed LEGO pieces.
    •    The real power is owning the washing machine + sorting machine + special tool that turns that mess into perfect, usable pieces.

China spent years building the world’s biggest LEGO washing/sorting factory (the “midstream”: refineries, smelters, separation plants).

So even if the West digs up the LEGO, it often still has to send it to China to get it turned into usable parts.

We lost them somewhere here they wandered off , but continuing

Why this suddenly matters MORE

Because all the “future stuff” is actually super LEGO-hungry:
    •    AI data centres = mountains of copper and power gear
    •    EVs + batteries = lithium + graphite + rare earth magnets
    •    Military gear = specialty metals and chemicals you can’t just swap out

It’s not “cloud magic.” It’s “we need a terrifying amount of real metal.”

The scary part: “Material Impairment”

When you can’t get the right LEGO pieces, you start doing dumb substitutions:
    •    “Fine, use chunky blocks instead of the right thin pieces.”
Result: everything becomes heavier, uglier, hotter, slower, and breaks easier.

So your grandad’s saying the West is being forced into building worse versions of high-tech systems because the best materials are constrained.

China’s “teacher’s pet move”: controlling the supply gate

China can also say:
    •    “You can only have some LEGO pieces if you promise they’re for toys, not for robot suits.”
(That’s the export controls / “validated end-user” idea.)

So the class ends up choosing:
“Do we build iPads and EVs… or missiles and defence gear?”
Because the same materials get used for both. Or renewables ?

His main conclusion (in kid terms)

The West spent decades acting like:
    •    “Brains > bricks.”

But now it’s:
    •    “Brains + bricks + the factory that makes bricks usable = power.”

And right now, China owns too much of the “brick-making middle,” which means the West is downstream and vulnerable.

What he thinks should happen (simple version)

To stop being the kid with amazing ideas but no LEGO:
    •    Build/refund our own sorting + refining factories (midstream)
    •    Stockpile finished usable pieces, not just dirt/ore
    •    Invent cleaner ways to sort LEGO (new tech like “flash heating” etc.)
    •    Accept that “clean and efficient” sometimes means “fragile,” and you need backup plans

[thegoldbeast @thegoldbeast]

@great_martis And they say they "mine" it to suggest sweat and risk.

[Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. @RudyHavenstein]

Would you say that being the primary U.S. large bank regulator, and then leaving that role and accepting $7.2 million in just 2 years from those same banks in "speaking fees," is corrupt?

[thegoldbeast @thegoldbeast]

@GoldEventsAU @YouTube Always fun chatting to Kerry. A great champion for education in the precious metals space.

[Making Money Matter and Gold Events @GoldEventsAU]

Pacing yourself for the climb ahead with Sean Russo @thegoldbeast from Noahs Rule https://t.co/eoaU9q0X9p via @YouTube

[thegoldbeast @thegoldbeast]

2/2 AUD Au prices are the most stretched from long term averages since Feb 2009 and that was the worst since 1980. Buying in Feb 2009 needed 10-12 years before you were ahead. I get the Diwali buyers. Needs must! For the rest it's likely a good idea poorly executed.

[thegoldbeast @thegoldbeast]

I love good coffee but I won't queue for coffee. I won't ever be giving it up but I never need it that badly. Coffee for the most part is fungible. Which brings me to the now "world-famous" queue in Martin Place for ABC Bullion. I love Au and Ag but seriously people! 1/2

[Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein]

Many of the same trusted news institutions that today are warning us about catastrophic global warming—e.g., the Guardian, the New York Times, Newsweek—were in the 1970s warning us about catastrophic global cooling!

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Here are some quotes from the dotcom bubble before it crashed by 80%, which are similar to today’s optimism.

Enjoy.

• Quote: “Traditional valuation metrics like P/E ratios don’t apply to internet companies. It’s about market share and future potential.”

• Quote: “The internet is still in its infancy, and we believe the best is yet to come. Companies like Yahoo and AOL are poised to dominate the new economy.”

• Quote: “The internet is a paradigm shift. Companies like Webvan are revolutionizing industries, and their growth will justify these valuations.”

• Quote: “If it’s got a .com in its name, buy it. You can’t lose in this market.”

• Quote: “The internet is rewriting the rules of business. Companies like Pets. com are capturing market share at an unprecedented pace, and investors should get in now.”

• Quote: “WorldCom is a must-own stock for the internet age. Its infrastructure will power the digital revolution, and we see significant upside potential.”

• Quote: “This is not a bubble; it’s a new paradigm. Companies like AOL are building the future of media, and their valuations reflect that vision.”

[thegoldbeast @thegoldbeast]

@jnordvig Not what trend-ending tops in gold look like. If it's not a top it's consolidation.