@nickgerli1 Real terms tell the real story. Ten years of flat prices is a loss once you count inflation, taxes and upkeep. Buy for income, not just appreciation.
Miami just set an all-time record for $30 million-plus home sales. 24 of them closed in nine months, already past any full year on record. Rates are near 7.5%.
Those two facts only fit together when you look at who’s buying. 38% of Miami closings last month were cash. At the top, nobody’s financing anything, so the rate doesn’t exist. Meanwhile the buyer who needs a loan is frozen out, and listings have dropped eight months straight.
“Miami real estate” isn’t one market. It’s a cash market stacked on top of a financed one, and they’re moving in opposite directions. When you read a headline number, find the cash share first. That’s the one that tells you which market you’re actually looking at.
https://t.co/3J4o58pqLF
@FinanceLancelot Stacked leverage across housing, CRE, and private credit is the real worry. Stress shows up first where refinancing meets weak cash flow.
@bespokeinvest Public PE names are catching the same rate and exit reality private deals already feel. Dry powder helps less when buyers won't stretch on price.
@MostlyMonkey Exactly. The bid is a policy bet, not a cash flow bet. Until the rules change, underwrite the regulation you have, not the one you wish for.
@Owennfa Profitable and family-owned does not mean protected. PE often buys the P&L and resets the people cost on day one. Culture is not on the spreadsheet.
@BrokeButBuildin Tenant risk plus rate reset is a double hit. When the cash stops, the valuation story collapses fast. Occupancy and lease quality still beat narrative.