Théophile Legrand

Rates Strategist / Views are my own - RT doesn't mean endorsement

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

@BertilleBayart Le programme du NFP n’est pas applicable dans son ensemble vu les résultats, les partis pro européens sont majoritaires (baisse du risque de redenomination) et le risque RN est écarté à court-terme donc plutôt positif pour le spread

[WSJ Central Banks @WSJCentralBanks]

“Expectations of rate cuts are now too aggressive in our view,” says Theophile Legrand, European rates strategist at Natixis https://t.co/O33EFVsYHJ

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

(4) The volatility in spreads is likely to stay low and (5) a smooth QT on PEPP would not contribute to a significant spread widening. 7/7

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

🇮🇹🇪🇺 Sovereign bond market : Italy: Is the stability of sovereign spreads sustainable for Q4-2023?

Market insight available for @NatixisResearch clients

Thread : 1/7

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

We’re still of the view that positive factors are still supportive for BTPs: (1) the carry is still very attractive, (2) the third tranche of the NGEU program has been validated by the European Commission, (3) net supply issuance for Q4 is negative. 6/7

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

@fwred Hawkish pause in September looks the smartest solution with a risk management approach and the market seems to buy this idea. Centrist speechs as Villeroy (next week) will be key ?

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

@StephaneDeo Early discussions around the PEPP could be a game changer but confident that the short would not be huge

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

@HadrienCamatte Raison de plus pour montrer qu’il y a pas un excès de demande et que la BCE doit s’arrêter à 3,75% ;)

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

@HadrienCamatte T’es un malade 😂😂

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

@Jeadal1 It's strange to see that several banks are expecting an early QT on the PEPP (as we are) but it's certainly not report in the ECB's July SMA.

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

@zhenyuwu1990 Les hawks vont pousser là dessus à l’automne surtout si la BCE a terminé son cycle de hausse de taux. Toutefois, ce sujet du QT sur le PEPP se fera uniquement s’il n’y pas de volatilité sur les BTPs. Mais il faut quand même séparer le PEPP de l’objectif d’inflation.

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

On parle des implications d'un Quantitative Tightening sur le PEPP qui sera un sujet pour la fin d'année/début 2024. @NatixisResearch

👉 La BCE explore les différentes pistes pour réduire son bilan https://t.co/gyuqmxK7ch via @AgefiFrance

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

@NicolasGoetzman This paper therefore supports the "transitory team" on inflation (cc @ErikFossing) . No excess in demand and no need to overtighten.

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

@niconobivalgre Se il mercato fosse posizionato su un'economia italiana debole, dubito che lo spread BTP-Bund 10Y sarebbe a 160 bps

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

@joosteninvestor @RobinBrooksIIF The resilience of the spread is mainly explained by strong nominal growth at the moment (which allows for a degree of debt sustainability), strong appetite from retail investors and a relative political stability 2/2

[Théophile Legrand @thlegrand]

@joosteninvestor @RobinBrooksIIF I don't necessarily agree on the illusion: the large part of the deviation from the capital key on BTPs took place in July 2022 when there was volatility on BTPs (Draghi resignation), not afterwards. 1/2