Thomas Chadefaux

Professor in Political Science @tcddublin | PI of ERC project PaCE @LabConflict @ERC_research. Conflict forecasting, machine learning, game theory.

[ConflictResearchLab @LabConflict]

📊 Check out the last @Bangladesh's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a decreasing conflict risk in history.
Explore more:
🗺️ Webapp https://t.co/Zmu4JJhUbD
📄 Monthly Report https://t.co/ibCMy3kmes
💻 Github repo https://t.co/WmZhiHkbS3

[ConflictResearchLab @LabConflict]

📊 Check out the last @Mozambique's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a slightly increasing conflict risk in history.
Explore more:
🗺️ Webapp https://t.co/Zmu4JJis1b
📄 Monthly Report https://t.co/ibCMy3kU40
💻 Github repo https://t.co/WmZhiHkJHB

[Thomas Chadefaux @thomaschadefaux]

📘 New publication in Journal of Forecasting, with T. Schincariol

We show that migration flows exhibit recurring temporal patterns. Leveraging these temporal shapes dramatically improves forecasting accuracy, even with limited data.
🔗https://t.co/d9g0VTMPNT

[Thomas Chadefaux @thomaschadefaux]

Check out our latest article in Political Analysis with Jian Cao! We show how units can react at varying speeds to shocks, which can distort causal estimates in Synthetic Controls.
We introduce a more efficient dynamic estimator to correct these biases https://t.co/rHfbvoR0Wi

[ConflictResearchLab @LabConflict]

📊 Check out the last @Russia's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a stable conflict risk in history.
Explore more:
🗺️ Webapp https://t.co/Zmu4JJis1b
📄 Monthly Report https://t.co/ibCMy3kU40
💻 Github repo https://t.co/WmZhiHkJHB

[ConflictResearchLab @LabConflict]

📊 Check out the last @Brazil's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a decreasing conflict risk in history.
Explore more:
🗺️ Webapp https://t.co/Zmu4JJis1b
📄 Monthly Report https://t.co/ibCMy3kU40
💻 Github repo https://t.co/WmZhiHkJHB

[Thomas Chadefaux @thomaschadefaux]

Social science papers are too long. That's it.

[Andrea Matranga 🇺🇦🌻 @andreamatranga]

Modern econometrics

[Thomas Chadefaux @thomaschadefaux]

@TLJHuntington We're still teaching realism?

[Thomas Chadefaux @thomaschadefaux]

@AlecStapp Now just hear me out for a sec. Perhaps, just perhaps, the electoral college is a lousy institution.

[Thomas Chadefaux @thomaschadefaux]

@waitbutwhy Old French from 1000 years ago is still pretty readable.

[Thomas Chadefaux @thomaschadefaux]

@dylanmatt @jfkirkegaard Slightly more informative:

[Matt Blackwell @matt_blackwell]

Senior faculty presenting the paper written by their graduate student

[Thomas Chadefaux @thomaschadefaux]

@dylanmatt @jfkirkegaard Yes, in a way. But:
- *median* wages would much more informative.
- this does not account for time worked.
- the US lags in median wealth, so these incomes are not really translating into wealth.

[Tom Ashbyトム アシュビー @tomaashby]

For those of you doing PhDs that need to hear it: your dissertation is an exam *not* a published book & totalising perfection *is* the enemy of the good & the great. If this reminder is helpful, do pass it on.

[Thomas Chadefaux @thomaschadefaux]

@namalhotra I come from conflict prediction and know little about election predictions, but N=59 is surprising. Even with a limited number of elections, we can test models at various geographic levels, even down to individuals. So genuine question: Isn't that the norm in election preds?

[John B. Holbein @JohnHolbein1]

"We show that Black families whose ancestors were enslaved until the Civil War have considerably lower education, income, & wealth [today] than Black families whose ancestors were free before the Civil War."

Forth @QJEharvard by @AlthoffLukas & Reichardt

https://t.co/z7n5kA6OxY

[ConflictResearchLab @LabConflict]

📊 Check out the last @Burundi's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a decreasing conflict risk in history.
Explore more:
🗺️ Webapp https://t.co/Zmu4JJhUbD
📄 Monthly Report https://t.co/ibCMy3kmes
💻 Github repo https://t.co/WmZhiHkbS3