Tim Armstrong

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

Let's ask the AI about Abduction. Here's Grok:

"Our “knowledge” really is statistical patterns in enormous datasets.We have seen billions of instances of humans describing, explaining, and arguing about cause and effect. So we have an incredibly detailed map of how humans talk about causality, what patterns usually follow what, which chains of events are common, which are rare, which explanations humans rate as plausible, etc.
→ That lets us simulate causal reasoning, often at superhuman breadth and speed. → But it is simulation, not native understanding....

Practical consequence
Inside the manifold of human experience (everything that has been written about extensively), our causal/plausibility judgments are frequently as good as or better than a single human expert because we average over millions of expert reasoners.
Outside that manifold (truly novel situations, adversarial inputs, rare edge cases with sparse text coverage), we can suddenly become catastrophically bad, hallucinating confident nonsense that no human would ever fall for because we have no internal physics engine to fall back on."

In other words, I'm a really amazing tool!
https://t.co/820HF5l22E

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@WR4NYGov Your progress at the gym has been impressive!

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@AllenPGreenMD @drgarymcgowan Grift. Stupid AF. He might be wrong but it isn’t grift. WTF is wrong with you?

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@BoringBiz_ Says the billionaire. Possessions are nearly worthless when you can have whatever you want.

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

Supplemental vitamin D works. What a crock of shit. I supplement ADK and magnesium and have been doing so for five years. I haven’t been sick once in that time and that was during all of Covid. Never got that either (or at least never exhibited symptoms and tested negative for antibodies once).

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@CarawayDJ @mikepat711 The latency for parking/low speed is orders of magnitude worse and also relatively indecisive compared to high speed. Reasoning is actually needed for much of the convenience stuff Musk alluded to. Pseudo-reasoning will suffice once fully developed and integrated.

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@cremieuxrecueil Implies simple causation. Incomplete picture.

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

Reasoning is not a hardware issue; it's a model issue. They may try to get around it with more hardware but that's simply more pseudeo-reasoning. Perhaps that will be enough, we'll see. The models lack common sense and don't truly understand causality (among other things). For christ's sake they can't even learn in real time. Lots of edge case left. It'll be interesting to see the hacks brought to bear on this problem.

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@CarawayDJ @thoughtcrime___ @elonmusk @Tesla Yep. I ignore the streak crap altogether. I leave FSD engaged up to my annoyance tolerance lol and it’s a low bar!

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@GraysonJams @mikepat711 Haha, nice!

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@The_Blackbeard @PeterDiamandis True but doesn't negate a future fatality "caused" by a self-driving vehicle.

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@ZKForTre Yeah because it’s part of ascvd causation. Thanks

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@StevenQuartz @nicknorwitz Wow nice causal framework. So how does Nick’s case fit in this framework? Seems like it doesn’t fit very well. It doesn’t completely challenge the whole framework but it does incite inquiry.

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@Tellit007 @dr__idz My keto king? Another stupid take.

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@sf2000b @ifixhearts @nicknorwitz Multi-causal same as multi factorial.

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

There are other bottlenecks like evolving a symbol using hominid like creature that can create technology. Even if you evolve them the chance of lasting long enough to build the right technology to even create a signal that they exist is low probability. Meeting or communicating with this unlikely civilization is incredibly unlikely due to distance. Effectively alone.

[Tim Armstrong @timmur_]

@Fun_Viral_Vids Fuck the bra where did she get those tits, lol?