Tom V

on the internet ~~nobody~~ everybody knows you're an AGI

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

in history books, the achievement of AGI will be dated 2025

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@Steve_Sailer @hecubian_devil Looks like she just read some blog posts on GWAS and took it as gospel

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

This is obviously false if you think about it.
First, lean retail muscle (excluding trim, bones, hide, organs etc) is ~35% of live body weight. So 65% of the optimized factory production is still going to the production of things other than muscle. In cultivated meat this is ~100% so an enormous gain already.

Second, the argument goes even more in favor of cultured when you consider lifetime feed/water inputs. The carbon to edible protein conversion rate in a cow is ~1-3%. Cultured cells with glucose and amino acid inputs, you're looking at 10-20% conversion rate. A cow spends ~97% of its inputs making a body that is mostly not muscle. This is an extremely low bar for cultured cells, especially with scale and efficiency gains.

I would have honestly expected a deeper analysis from @dwarkesh_sp than this surface level evolutionary handwaving

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

there was this monstrous series on the mysteries of obesity by @mold_time that made the rounds a while ago, I got as far as the introduction to realize they had absolutely no clue what they were talking about when they said:

> It’s true that people eat more calories today than they did in the 1960s and 70s, but the difference is quite small. Sources have a surprisingly hard time agreeing on just how much more we eat than our grandparents did, but all of them agree that it’s not much. Pew says calorie intake in the US increased from 2,025 calories per day in 1970 to about 2,481 calories per day in 2010

https://t.co/Gwtxz6eX03

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

Recently I took a look at @mold_time's A Chemical Hunger which I had saved for reading some time ago to see what a multi-month 10-part series had to say about the topic.

I had to put it down a few paragraphs it when it claimed:

> It’s true that people eat more calories today than they did in the 1960s and 70s, but the difference is quite small. Sources have a surprisingly hard time agreeing on just how much more we eat than our grandparents did, but all of them agree that it’s not much. Pew says calorie intake in the US increased from 2,025 calories per day in 1970 to about 2,481 calories per day in 2010

Like wtf are you smoking? That's an absolutely enormous increase and it's surprising that people aren't even fatter than they are.

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@IterIntellectus next token prediction, but worse

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@IterIntellectus @anothercohen when can I get a brain implant that can make me unsee things?

[dom @ryiacy]

It’s cute how Claude has the beaver-building-dam attitude about how adjusting your gradients to minimize prediction error is actually the greatest and most important thing in the universe

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@eigenrobot always bothered me that Venice and Vienna are just east of the line, should be west of it imo

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@paulg @founderengineer @unironictechbro Nonsense, it's completely understandable from the first clause

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@memeticsisyphus @MaciekKol Famously predictable

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@memeticsisyphus @MaciekKol the issue is that it's not a predictable small increase, hence the massive societal waste of astrophysics PhDs working for hedge funds, betting what magic number the Fed will pull out of thin air this time to control this apparently predictable number

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@maxleiter

[Teddy @WarnerTeddy]

i mounted a tiny microphone on my apartment balcony to listen for any birds passing by and built a site to collage them as they're heard

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@Truthful_ast Don't think I've seen you mention it anywhere, but do you, or will you be using Principia to have Lagrange points as well?

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@DominiqueCAPaul it's amazing as a local llm knowledge base, and even a collaborative repository for various projects between you and an llm assistant like @NousResearch Hermes

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@connorpaton what is this, 2012?

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@Thandeus @CNBC @grok he's obviously correct ;)

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@xwanyex it's incredible just how much they don't get it

they're so far off they're not even wrong

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@ethereumfndn > An attestation framework so auditors can verify descriptor integrity (ERC-8176

To be clear, this attestation framework doesn't exist yet correct? So for now wallets need to trust the registry, correct?

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

SpaceX has just released a massive new list of changes in Starship V3, which is now scheduled to launch on May 19th:

Super Heavy V3 Changes
Grid Fin Redesign:
• Reduced from 4 fins to 3
• Each fin is now: 50% larger, stronger, repositioned for better catching/lifting
• Lowered on booster to reduce heat exposure during hot staging
• Fin hardware moved inside fuel tank for protection

Integrated Hot Stage:
• Removes the old disposable interstage shield
• Booster dome now directly exposed to upper-stage engine ignition
• Tank pressure + steel shielding protect structure
• Interstage actuators retract after separation for protection

New Fuel Transfer System:
• Massive redesign of fuel transfer tube
• Roughly the size of a Falcon 9 first stage
• Allows: simultaneous startup of all 33 Raptors, faster and more reliable flip maneuvers

Engine Bay / Thermal Protection Changes:
• Engine shrouds removed entirely
• New shielding added between engines
• Propulsion + avionics more tightly integrated
• CO₂ fire suppression system removed
• Simpler and lighter aft section

Propellant Loading Improvements:
• Moved from 1 quick disconnect to 2 separate systems
• Adds redundancy
• Reduces complexity of pad interfaces

Starship V3 Changes
Completely Redesigned Propulsion System:
• Clean-sheet redesign
• Supports: new Raptor startup method, larger propellant volume and improved reaction control system
• Reduces trapped/leaked propellant risk

Aft Section Simplification:
• Fluid + electrical systems rerouted
• Engine shrouds deleted
• Large aft cavity removed

Flap Actuation Upgrade:
• Changed from: 2 actuators per flap to 1 actuator with 3 motors
• Improves:, redundancy, mass efficiency, cost

Faster Starlink Deployment:
• Upgraded PEZ dispenser
• Faster satellite deployment speeds

Long-Duration Spaceflight Capability:
• New systems added for: long orbital coasts, orbital refueling, cryogenic fluid management, vacuum, insulated header systems and high-voltage cryogenic recirculation

Ship-to-Ship Docking + Refueling:
• Added 4 docking drogues
• Added propellant transfer connections
• Directly supports in-space refueling architecture

Avionics Upgrades
Massive Electrical System Upgrade:
• ~60 custom avionics units
• Batteries/inverters/high-voltage systems integrated together
• ~9 MW peak power capability

Better Navigation + Redundancy:
• New multi-sensor navigation system
• Designed for precision autonomous flight

Propellant Monitoring in Space:
• New RF sensors measure propellant levels in microgravity
• Important for orbital refueling missions

Camera + Connectivity Upgrades:
• ~50 onboard camera views
• 480 Mbps Starlink connectivity onboard
• Low-latency redundant communications

Raptor 3 Engine Changes
Higher Thrust:
• Sea-level Raptors:
• Increased from:
230 tf → 250 tf
507k lbf → 551k lbf

Vacuum Raptors:
Increased from:
258 tf → 275 tf
568k lbf → 606k lbf

Lower Mass:
• Sea-level engine mass reduced: 1630 kg → 1525 kg

Simpler Design:
• Sensors/controllers integrated into engine body
• Removes need for engine shrouds
• New ignition system for all variants
• Huge Vehicle-Level Weight Savings
• ~1 ton saved per engine across vehicle systems

Launch Pad 2 Upgrades (Starbase)
Faster Propellant Loading:
• Larger propellant farm
• More pumps
• Faster fueling operations

Chopstick Improvements:
• Shorter arms for faster movement
• Switched from hydraulic → electromechanical actuators
• Better reliability + redundancy

Stronger Quick Disconnect Arm:
• Reinforced and redesigned
• Swings farther away during launch

Launch Mount Redesign:
• Better load handling
• Improved launch protection
• Improved throwback reliability

New Flame Diverter System:
• Bidirectional flame diverter
• Designed to eliminate ablation/refurbishment after launch

Hardened Propellant Systems:
• Methane and oxygen systems separated
• Valves/filters moved into protected bunker
• Improves safety and reliability

SpaceX: "Together, these new elements are designed to enable a step-change in Starship capabilities and aim to unlock the vehicle’s core functions, including full and rapid reuse, in-space propellant transfer, deployment of Starlink satellites and orbital data centers, and the ability to send people and cargo to the Moon and Mars."

This is going to be an epic flight! 🚀

[Tom V @tmsvrb]

@ArtemisConsort @wolftivy Nothing will make you less sympathetic to most poor people than living among them and seeing first hand the endless stream of bad decisions they make, making their situations worse and worse.
There are some that manage to turn that life around, I know a few, and I root for them