@JoeValue A summary of the core thesis at the top and a detailed dive below that. I should be able to understand it in the first few sentences then have most of my questions answered in the following paragraphs. They are the best in my opinion
@F_Compounders Capital light businesses, that don't have much depreciation or Capex. That's about it, I hate seeing some Capex heavy business such as a mine talkIng about EBITDA
@BrettKPG Hi @BrettKPG , what's the correct metric to use when valuing KPG. On an EV/TTM owners earnings I get 22.7, owners earnings have compounded from 19-25 at 18%. While this is an impressive record, this appears fail valued not cheap. What am I missing?
@puppyeh1 What's the thesis there? Obviously it's crazy cheap but is 5% stake enough to influence the management to distribute some of that cash and securities?
I’ve recently been spending time on a tertiary education business in Australia called EDU Holdings ($EDU.AX).
I don’t think I’ve ever come across a company growing this quickly, generating this much cash, and still trading at what looks like a ridiculously cheap price.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been trying to understand this disconnect. I spoke with students, education agents, visited campuses, and had the opportunity to meet the management team at their recent AGM earlier this month.
EDU Holdings ($EDU.AX) is an education group that owns and operates two tertiary education institutes in Australia.
Ikon — higher education provider serving domestic + international students
ALG — vocational education provider focused on international students
The core asset is Ikon (~80% of Revs, ~90% of EBITDA).
Here’s why I think it's a compelling opportunity:
1) Ikon is the market leader in Early Childhood Education amongst for-profit higher education institutes in Australia (>25% share)
2) The business is growing rapidly, revenue grew 95% YoY to ~A$82m and Adj. EBITDA grew ~353% YoY to ~A$22m
3) Ikon offers the same accredited degrees as public universities at a significantly lower cost for international students, with greater flexibility than government-backed alternatives
4) Deep network of >290 education agents both onshore and offshore, who trust Ikon and recruit students on their behalf. As more students successfully secure visas and jobs post-graduation, those outcomes reinforce agent confidence in Ikon, creating a compounding loop of trust, referrals and incentives that becomes harder for competitors to displace
5) Recent regulatory changes are impacting the international student market, but EDU is proactively managing this by diversifying its recruitment channels, adapting its agent model, broadening course offerings and student mix, with multiple growth levers working in its favour. Ikon represents only ~2% of the broader education market and has continually taken share from universities, leaving significant runway ahead
6) Multiple intakes per year and ~3-year course durations create layered student cohorts, giving EDU strong revenue and earnings visibility. Even if Ikon's enrolled student base were to remain flat at ~5,300 students (T1 '26), revenue would grow ~39% in 2026 as students who enrolled partway through 2025 contribute a full year of fees
7) Highly profitable business model, with a portion of tuition fees paid prior to each trimester commencing, leading to adj. EBITDA margins of ~27% and cash conversion of ~80%
8) Asset-light business, with minimal reinvestment requirements that generates high returns on capital (~78% ROIC and ~348% ROIIC)
9) The business trades at a deeply discounted valuation, ~4.2x 2026F Adj. EBITDA and ~6x 2026F Owners earnings, despite private M&A for comparable higher education assets taking place at double-digit EBITDA multiples, including the sale of Laureate's ($LAUR) ANZ assets to Strategic Education ($STRA) at ~12.5x, with $STRA itself trading at ~6.2x 2026F EBITDA
10) The company has been aggressively buying back shares, retiring ~26% of outstanding shares since September 2024
If the above piques your interest, my full deep-dive on the company can be found here:
https://t.co/HE3ET7bFBi
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@mcranston1
Anybody on fintwit looking to hire? Anybody on fintwit looking to be hired? Send me a dm.
About to launch a little project to give back to the community: fintwitjobs.
Would appreciate a RT for visibility!
@Anomaly_Invest Hi, the two DCF figures use growth rates of 15% and 28% for managements figure. Their historical growth of Underlying NPATA is only 11.3%, how will they achieve the uplift from it's historical? Is there some plan to take more share of the operating businesses?
@BrettKPG@Zillij2@Redeye_ Hi @BrettKPG, would you use the TTM Underlying NPATA of $9.7m and last 5 years FCF growth of 13.9% in your calculation? Or do you consider the operating business metrics more? Thanks for any insight, awesome stuff as always!
@eadatt When I worked for a NSW Coal mine the commercial guy told me we were fine on our sales since Japanese power plants were specifically setup for our coals sizing, calorific value and ash content. Should give Aus coal a boost in demand
@toy59496@smoothinvesting Hi @smoothinvesting & @toy59496, since dividend ex date is 22nd and buyback tender cutoff is the 24th my understanding is so long as you tender your shares after the 22nd you're eligible for both. Is that the same way you've interpreted it?
@puppyeh1 Hi Jeremy, How do you see the setup with TFG? Ripple have no intentions to IPO and would likely blow up before the value is realised. Also the voting at TFG is concerning, mgt can take advantage of shareholders at will. Are you still seeing value?
@toy59496@puppyeh1@acidinvestments@capitalemployed Hi Robin,
What numbers did you use for the Casio contract? I haven't been able to find any information from management on what percentage of Revenue is from Casio, what did you use for your estimates?