Tom Williams

Loves God, cordially works with Mammon. Protecting pensioners by buying bonds. Fund Manager/Gilt nerd. My views etc

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@isnit0 @DannyBee595 The public sector pension spend appears in departmental spend. Also devolved spending has large chunks of welfare/NHS

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@Benpagelondon @jamesdmorris Time of year matters though for that chart. Probably best showed as Jan to Dec with each year overlayed

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@PJTheEconomist See also VAT on private schools

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@Frencheconomics 100% we’ve learnt there is a nasty reinforcement mechanism for inflation shocks in the UK economy

[Tom Calver @TomHCalver]

Only four in ten UK households make a net contribution to the state

The richest households contribute £57k, the ninth decile £17k, and the eighth £11k. The poorest decile receives about £24k

1/4

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@Frencheconomics You sure about that? 10yr gilts had rallied 30bps whilst US yields were flat to small up.

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@Frencheconomics As long as the bonds expiring in the APF are replaced are refined by short-dated debt the impact on the gilt market should be muted as the banking sector will just swap the O/N reserves destroyed for new sub-5yr gilts. QT imho isn’t what is driving higher UK rates.

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@ClausVistesen @julianHjessop The curve is pretty flat from 20yrs to 35yrs - nevertheless the duration risk you run dwarfs the incremental yield/roll that would dribble into your return every day. 30yr bonds are a law onto themselves and are more about supply/demand dynamics than about economics.

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@ClausVistesen @julianHjessop ☝️You don’t buy a 30yr bond for carry. You can lose a year of carry in an afternoon if the yield moves a few bps…….

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@julianHjessop This is fair. The move in the 10yr is more important but regardless of the smaller move there the level of the 10yr asks very uncomfortable questions fiscally. The move in the 30yr matters because it puts more pressure on the 10yr as 30yr debt is now seemingly not an easy option.

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@julianHjessop @SteveBakerFRSA The article on the right sort of explains the fiscal problem on the left… can’t make even small changes to pension/benefit/health spending without howls of protests…

[Sam Dumitriu @Sam_Dumitriu]

This is bleak.

Not a single new home was started in two-thirds of London's 33 boroughs.

We need an urgent rewrite of the London Plan.

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@rcolvile That’s not fair - they basically saturated the full market demand for very long dated (and index linked debt) from 2011-2020

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@benjaminbarnard @rcolvile When you do the sums reserves tiering or HMT not repaying realised QT losses are functionally very similar to just forcing the MPC to cut base rate. Feels like an invasion of monetary policy independence.

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@tomhfh A big chunk of devolved govt is health too

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@OneHotCode1 @salr_nyc @saeedamenfx @donnelly_brent I enjoyed it more than the euro swaps curve inversion exotics blow up - buying great big clips of USDJPY felt more glamorous to my young self than scrambling around to give 5mm clips of 10s30s to whoever would take it.

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@OneHotCode1 @salr_nyc @saeedamenfx @donnelly_brent I had the joy of having to gamma hedge two PRDC books in London hours in my first trading job. It was definitely an abrupt lesson in second order risks.

[Tom Forth @thomasforth]

I don't know do I. Lots get said that doesn't actually matter. But if I'm in a Labour MP run jng for reeelection in four years time and my opponent on the doorstep can just say "they sent £18bn to Mauritius instead of fixing that pothole" isn't it just isn't game over?

[Tom Williams @TomW100]

@EdConwaySky This is daft - it’s a function of the capital gains tax treatment far more than the underlying liquidity.