Trading Pocus

Curious about the market. #Gold #Silver #Copper #Uranium #Agri #Commodities $DJIA $SPX $TSX $VIX #USD #Cycles Tweets and RTs are not advice. Do your homework.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 We may be looking at the rarest market setup in 50 years.

The S&P 500's four historic drawdowns since 1972:
– 1973 Inflation: -43%
– 1987 Liquidity: -30%
– 2000 Tech: -47%
– 2008 Credit: -55%

Each one was driven by ONE dominant risk.

Right now, all four are present at the same time.

1. INFLATION
A commodity supercycle. Energy, metals, agriculture all in multi-year base breakouts. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has been above 2% for 18 of the last 24 months.

2. LIQUIDITY
The largest equity supply shock since 2000. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic raising ~$275B combined. Google flipping from $60B/year buybacks to $80B net issuance. Over $1 trillion of IPO and lockup supply hitting the Russell 3000 in 2026.

3. TECH
Semiconductors trading 73% above their 200-day moving average – the largest stretch since March 2000. Climax run signals across the AI complex. Micron, Palantir, SMCI, the SOX index, all showing the textbook O'Neil sell pattern.

4. CREDIT
Apollo, KKR, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Cliffwater, Partners Group – all gating redemptions on their evergreen funds in the last 90 days. The private credit machine is freezing in real time.

Never in 50 years have all four risks been simultaneously present.

But here's the part nobody talks about

While the AI Big 10 has gone vertical, quality stocks have been left for dead.

– Berkshire Hathaway: trailing the S&P 500 by hundreds of basis points
– Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Pepsi: trading at multi-year relative lows
– HEICO, Union Pacific, MSCI: making boring new highs while everyone watches Nvidia
– Healthcare vs. S&P 500: 25-year relative low

The last time this happened?

December 1999. Barron's ran a cover titled "What's Wrong, Warren?" – mocking Buffett for being a dinosaur, for missing the internet, for refusing to pay for growth at any price.

Berkshire was down 19% in 1999 while the Nasdaq was up 85%.

What followed:
– Berkshire +29% over the next 24 months
– Nasdaq -78% over the next 30 months

The setup today

Four historic risks stacked simultaneously, while the boring, durable, cash-flowing businesses that always survive these regimes have been treated like dead money for years.

The math doesn't get more asymmetric than this.

Quality stocks aren't out of style.

They're being orphaned.

That's when generational positions are built.

The boring stuff hasn't worked for a long time.

History suggests that's exactly the moment it starts to.

[The Economic LongWave @TheELongWave]

A Longwave perspective on Canada's economic recession.

A huge wave of Canadian mortgages matures between 2025 and 2027, with the biggest pressure points around June 2026 and June 2027.

That means millions of borrowers who locked in cheap money during the ultra-low-rate period will be forced to renew at much higher rates.

The danger is not just higher mortgage payments.

It is the second-order effect:

Higher payments → less disposable income → weaker consumption → rising delinquencies → pressure on banks → falling home prices → broader economic slowdown.

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

Here is what that looks like.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

🚨 Welcome to the Everything Bubble : Valuations Have Never Been This Insane.

Won't be long.

[Martin Pelletier @MPelletierCIO]

Humbled and deeply grateful to share that my first book, Investing Through the Storm: How to Preserve and Grow Your Wealth in Uncertain Times, will be published this December by @harrimanhouse

This project has been years in the making, a practical guide drawn from lessons learned through market cycles, client conversations, and the privilege of stewarding capital in volatile times. None of this would have been possible without the support of my family, colleagues, mentors, and the incredible investors and readers who’ve followed my work over the years. Thank you.

If you’re navigating today’s uncertainty and looking for a clear framework to protect and grow wealth, I’d be honoured if you pre-ordered a copy. Your support means the world. Pre-order here: https://t.co/BJUxGDZQSv
or here
https://t.co/j76HlU4nsq

Looking forward to sharing more as we get closer to launch. Grateful for this journey. 🙏

[Trading Pocus @tradingpocus]

@MPelletierCIO @harrimanhouse Looking forward to reading it! Great title!

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🌎 Clear signs are emerging that the global inflation surprise may now be turning back to the upside ⚠

1️⃣ Energy prices continue to move higher as the probability of an imminent and lasting U.S./Iran ceasefire keeps fading, sustaining geopolitical risk premia across oil and gas markets.

2️⃣ Food #inflation also looks increasingly likely to reaccelerate over the coming months. Fertilizer prices have been rising sharply, historically feeding into agricultural prices with a 6–9 month lag, while the growing risk of El Niño could further pressure global crop yields.

3️⃣ Climate-related pressures are becoming another inflationary driver. The ongoing drought in the U.S., already considered the worst since 1895 in some regions, alongside extreme weather elsewhere, could push insurance premiums materially higher.

4️⃣ Semiconductor prices are starting to rise again amid strong AI-driven demand and the continued surge in helium prices, a critical input for chip manufacturing. Korean trade data released yesterday showed that DRAM export unit prices skyrocketed between April 30 and May 10 alone. This dynamic could increasingly spill over into capital goods inflation.
*See: https://t.co/kcsVPO04jX

➡ Thursday’s U.S. Import Price Index (April), escpecially for capital goods (ex-autos) will therefore be particularly important to monitor 🚨

[Robert Friedland @robert_ivanhoe]

Over $700 billion dollars has been announced in 2026 capex budgets from the #hyperscalers

@Meta capex: ~$135 billion
@amazon capex: $200 billion
#Alphabet capex: ~$185 billion
@Microsoft capex: $190 billion

That's alot of copper to deliver the largest capex cycle in US history

[Trading Pocus @tradingpocus]

@FoodProfessor Congratulations!

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

✨Ladies and Gentlemens, Distinguished Dignitaries, Members of Royalty, Esteemed Celestial Beings, Honoured Extraterrestrial Guests, Illustrious Leaders of Industry, and Esteemed Guests from Across the Cosmos and Beyond...

The last time the semiconductor index shot above the entire monthly BBs in such fashion was...

you guessed it ...

the Dotcom bubble.🫧

This rare and extreme technical reading carries serious historical precedent and demands heightened caution in the current market.

Yours truly,
The Great Martis.✨

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

OIL analysis🛢️

The chart displays a textbook flat-bottom broadening pattern that has been forming since March 2026.

You can clearly see the flat support base holding firm along the lower blue dashed line , while the upper boundary has been expanding higher with each successive swing high.

This classic FLAT bottom broadening formation is now at a critical inflection point.

Pattern activation trigger:
If oil breaks and holds above $100, the flat-bottom broadening pattern activates.

A decisive close above this level would confirm the breakout and bring the $130 – $150 zone into play as the measured upside targets.

One of the most powerful characteristics of these majestic broadening patterns is that the 5th wave inside them is typically the strongest and lengthiest.

We are perfectly positioned for exactly that move right now .. the explosive upside extension is what makes this setup so high-conviction.

Eyes on $100.

This is the level that matters.
Break it, and the oil bulls take control with serious momentum toward 130/150+.

Clean, high-probability setup.

Pattern is loaded. Waiting on the trigger. 🚀

[Silver Santa @Silver__Santa]

#STAGFLATION = RECESSION + INFLATION

[Trading Pocus @tradingpocus]

@FoodProfessor Je lisais vos chroniques avec assiduité. Votre départ est une grande perte pour les lecteurs de La Presse. J’espère que vous allez continuer à partager vos écrits sur X et ailleurs. Vos écrits et entrevues sont toujours intéressants et pertinents. Merci à vous.

[Trading Pocus @tradingpocus]

@great_martis Is he your twin brother? 😂

[Trading Pocus @tradingpocus]

@great_martis

[Brooke Thackray @BrookeThackray]

Public-private partnership launches $1.3-billion fund to purchase unsold GTA condos

This has to be one of the worst ideas that I have seen in a long time.

First of all, if there are too many units empty, just let prices fall. Second, everyone is going to try and avoid buying in condo buildings where there is subsidized rent. Prices will rise in condo buildings without subsidized rent and fall in condo buildings with a lot of subsidized rent.

This is not how to solve the housing "shortage." The free market is working, prices are coming down on their own.

[Trading Pocus @tradingpocus]

@great_martis For now… 🤪

[Trading Pocus @tradingpocus]

@MPelletierCIO And it could get much worse, article is alarmist but factually possible.

https://t.co/nI2q23uKoj

[🇦🇺Craig Tindale @ctindale]

https://t.co/zzSaHqNDOb

[Trading Pocus @tradingpocus]

@great_martis Watch the USD….

[Trading Pocus @tradingpocus]

@great_martis Watching the USD…