What is happening with the US labor market?
The difference between nonfarm payrolls and the household survey was a massive 564,000 jobs in June.
This comes as Thursday’s job report showed +57,000 non-farm payrolls were added last month.
At the same time, -507,000 Americans lost their job, the 3rd-largest drop since January 2024, according to the household survey.
The household survey is a closely followed metric because it counts each worker only once, even if they hold multiple jobs.
Year-to-date, total employment in the household survey has declined -1.7 million, to 162.26 million, the lowest since December 2024.
Over the same period, total nonfarm employment has risen +552,000, to a record 158.98 million.
Something does not add up here.
BCA finds that a surge in IPO activity is historically associated with weaker forward S&P 500 returns and less multiple expansion.
Source: BCA Research
Right-wing media outlets will probably try to alter the audio but this is how the crowd at Madison Square Garden reacted to President Trump at the Knicks game. I left in a cheer from the same crowd to show contrast.
I’m sad to hear of the passing of Ted Turner. Ted bought me to the US and payed me and allowed me to feed my family for 6 years. Ted also took care of mine and my families green cards. Rest well.
One of the joys of writing a Braves history book a couple years ago was hearing so many great Ted Turner stories. After the team’s first home loss after he purchased the team, he said his players deserved better than lunch meat for the postgame spread. As he tried to leave, he couldn’t get the clubhouse door to open. So, he kicked it and broke his toe. He walked around with a cane when he returned to Fulton County Stadium the next day.
Turner and Terry McGuirk fought countless battles against other MLB owners who didn’t want the Braves aired in their markets. The power of TBS’ satellites changed sports television and the impact is still felt whenever the Braves visit cities like Seattle, where countless Braves fans have been seen on the streets and in the stadium this week.
Also enjoyed Stan Kasten talking about how he was just a few days into his job as the Braves’ legal counsel when he returned to his place, turned on the game and saw Turner in uniform, serving as the self-appointed manager that night in Pittsburgh.
There are countless great stories about Turner. But there was only one Ted and the Braves were fortunate enough to call him their own.
BREAKING: Looks like the ceasefire is about to end. Trump says that the US is going to start escorting ships in this Strait of Hormuz.
I have a feeling this isn’t gonna play out like he thinks it will.
It’s also an hour before the future’s markets open so he’s trying to push stocks up and oil down.
NOBODY IS TELLING YOU HOW FUCKED THE FARMERS ARE IN AMERICA RIGHT NOW.
The Agriculture Secretary just confirmed it publicly.
1 in 4 American farmers has NO fertilizer secured for spring planting.
No fertilizer. No crops. No food.
Farm bankruptcies are up 46% in 2025.
160,000 farms closed since 2017.
Less than half of all farmers will even turn a profit this year.
They're not struggling. They're being wiped out.
And the media is busy covering everything else.
The real story behind this hasn't been told yet.. follow me because i'm about to tell it 🚨
Here is Dems 2028 Plan to counter GOP in 2026: GOP know not what they’ve started.
California, +3
Colorado, +4
Illinois, +2
Maryland, +1
Minnesota, +3
New Jersey, +2
New York, +4
Oregon, +1
Pennsylvania, +5
Washington state, +2
Wisconsin, +3
Total = 30 Seats
BESPOKE: “.. only 3% of companies have lowered guidance this season. That's much lower than the 8% that have lowered guidance out of the 90,000+ reports we've tracked over the last ten years.”
@bespokeinvest