FinancialCanada

Tech + Trying to escape

[Deedy @deedydas]

Met a kid today who taught himself AI with LLMs at 14 while barely speaking English, worked a 1yr long internship in a top AI company, flew across the world to attend a top 10 US undergrad, dropped out in 2 weeks, and has 5 ~$1M+ job offers from the top neolabs in SF at age 17.

Traditional education is so dead.

The young kids today are just built different.

[HeidingOut @HeidingOut]

Here you go guys. Sry no $MU video yet. My son had a bit of a melt down. Will try again tmr.

$MU big picture is still bullish rebound / larger pullback. My preferred short-term read is:

$1,113.97 = B
$1,068.56 = first motive leg down inside of a C Bounce ladder:
$1,085.91 → $1,091.26 → $1,096.62 → $1,103.25 → $1,107.34

If C continues lower:
$1,028.28 = C=A
$1,022.93 = takes the A low
$1,008.06 = 1.236×A
$975.32 = 1.618×A

Hold $1,022.93 and the running-flat finish is an option in my EW chart. Lose it and the expanded-flat / deeper-C path will be the option that I'd lean into.

A print above $1,113.97 kills my EW count and forces me to recount this setup.

Important upside completion zone: $1,184.66–$1,185.86. That is the LIVE Weekly and 1D bearish AB=CD D-zone / sell zone - IT IS NOT a bullish target. This means my larger time frame rebound thesis I'm still bullish on, but in super short-term time frames I feel like C may still have more work to do. Not financial advice. $MU $MUU

[jack @InvertedWingr]

$VST is down (imo) because the stock trades on ERCOT spot power, ~$30/MWh, flat YoY. that's not the AI price

the AI price is in the 20yr contracts: 1,200MW AWS, 2,600MW+ Meta, 207MW NUAI, NVIDIA/KKR JV

2028 book's only 72% hedged, so those contracts haven't hit earnings yet. stock's priced on today's spot power

[Brett Caughran @FundamentEdge]

Today is the day that AI passed the "financial modeling Turing test" for me.

A "push button" build from scratch Skill that one-shotted a model on $MU that is indistinguishable (to me) from a model that a junior analyst would build from scratch. With full, impeccable adherence to all aspects of who i like to format, design & build models (took a few turns to dial it in).

Opus 5.5 is unbelievable.

[Scott @scottstts]

My god this is such a good speech that every SWE needs to hear. You know what? Every person should hear it

Keep the happy memories, eyes on the reality, be excited about the future. That’s the best that anyone can do

[bubble boi @bubbleboi]

Bloom is fucking cooked guys.

[True @trueinvestings]

The market hasn't really gone anywhere since June. That was the high. Since then we've chopped in the same band for three and a half months, and if you've been trading it you already know the feeling. A setup looks great going into the weekend, triggers Monday, fails by Wednesday, and you're flat again.

To be clear, it hasn't been a bad year. $MU, $SNDK, $DELL, $INTC all worked. The semi move by itself was enough to make a year if you were positioned for it. But I think that's the point. The opportunity got concentrated into a pretty narrow window, and outside of it there hasn't been much to do.

2024 was different. 2025 too, to a lesser degree. In both of those years you could get your timing wrong and the trend would eventually cover for you. This year it doesn't. You get one clean entry, and if you miss it the next one looks identical on the chart and just doesn't pay.

I don't think the answer is in equities though. It's the bond market.

10yr hit 5% today, highest since 2007. Three weeks ago it was 4.66. The 30yr is over 5.20. Every tenor from 2s out to 30s is above where it peaked last year and the curve is bear steepening, so the long end is leading. That's investors asking for more term premium, not less. Add Brent over $100 and you have a fairly plain explanation for why nothing breaks out. Multiples can't expand while the discount rate is moving the other way.

Fed tomorrow. We're at 3.50–3.75 now. July was a 9-3 hold with three regional presidents dissenting for an immediate hike, first time in about a decade you've seen three members line up on the hawkish side like that.

For what it's worth, I'm not doing anything into the print. Never have. I don't take risk off Tuesday and put it back on Thursday over a calendar event. Positions come off when the thesis breaks or the chart breaks. If I want to express something around an event I'll sell calls against what I already hold and take the premium.

[Tut C🅰️pital @kingtutcap]

“$100 is my near-term target”

[Masa’s Son @masayoshisson]

favorite short ideas into this insane blowoff top (seemingly no one has learned from july lol)

any I’ve missed?

$AEHR - >30x fwd sales (I don’t even know what ppl are thinking anymore)
$ORCL - dc delays + OAI concentration
$BE - unproven tech deployed at tier c customers + scandium/ china dependency
$AXTI - china about to do them dirty
$CBRS - yield + OAI dependency + VC bro lockups + valuation
$SPCX - VC bro lockups and forced portfolio rebalancing + valuation
$CRWV - leveraged shitco claiming 10yr useful gpu life
$IREN - shitco failing to secure deal + absurd mgmt money grab
$NBIS - dc delays + most crowded it has ever been?
$AMD - losing share vs $NVDA + cpu now broadly priced in
$ARM - valuation
$02513 - 115x fwd sales, no more comment
$MU/ $SKHY/ $SNDK/ $285A - cyclical commodity at peak earnings
$IONQ/ $RGTI/ $QBTS - have and will not produce any commercial value at scale
$LITE - high power lasers = commodity
$COHR - yield + cf $LITE fundamental concerns
$AAOI - execution risk + terrible mgmt
$OPEN - terrible fundamentals + @rabois is a clown
$NVDA - AI financing shenanigans getting out of hand
$P - riding memory wave but has nothing to do with AI memory really
$META - ad spend growth reaching diminishing returns + capex lacking ROI
$GOOG - gemini who? + capex lacking ROI
$JMKE - >10x sales wtf (well done bx)
$BAER - leverage (creditors will take over sooner or later)
$PLTR - valuation
$NET/ $PANW/ $CRWD - valuation + saas
$RBRK/ $PDFS - earnings quality + saas
$ASTS - execution risk + competition from uber well capitalized $SPCX
$BSP - bad bank for failing saas ponzi
$ADBE - product sucks + AI monetization unclear
$FIG - AI cannibalization + valuation
$TMDX - structurally and def short-term lower margin
$HIMX - CPO delays + design out risk

[@levelsio @levelsio]

I think he's right

With regulatory capture we will speedrun to a new feudalist time

Regulatory capture is where you pass regulation, or create government agencies to "protect the people" but in the end it helps protect companies because you stop new companies from being able to enter the market, because the cost of following regulation is too much compete for a startup

Neo feudalism will mean AI companies at the top and the rest of us as serfs paying them to use AI for literally everything

Next in regulatory capture will be banning open source and/or Chinese models, mark my words

That's a very dangerous thing because then there will never be new AI frontier companies being able to compete again and with exponential self improving AI that means essentially no competitors in any industry ever again as they will slowly suck up money in all industries

Safety concerns of AI are scary but the neo feudalism of AI with regulatory capture is a way more scary for me

[Kevin Xu @kevinxu]

Friendly reminder that last $NVDA earnings day:

$NVTS +18.3%
$ALAB +17.7%
$ARM +15%
$SMCI +7.8%
$CRDO +6.1%

Just something to keep in mind

[Google Ads @GoogleAds]

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[arcads AI @arcads_ai]

I built a Claude skill that makes Vox-style ads

> create the voice-over
> breaks the ad into clips
> generate videos on Claude

Comment "Ads" and I'll send you the skill

[aleksa @aleksascales]

Still the best marketing strategy oat

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Unitree (688836) is now public.

And is valued at ~$53.3B, after rising +492.18%

We finally have a major public company benchmark for humanoids.

For reference, Agility (backed by $NVDA, $AMZN) via $CCXI is expected to go public at $2.5B premoney valuation Q4.

$TSLA is $1T+, but Optimus is wrapped inside a much larger company.

But I think Unitree showed that the demand for pure play humanoid players is much larger… than people expected in public markets.

[Real Blonde Broker @blondebroker1]

$MU daily had a perfect pullback to the golden zone at $738 before a bounce.
Needs to knock out the down trend line now.
Looking at the 4hr chart, bulls need $888, $900 then $920
Otherwise it could need more time inside the triangle.

[InTheMoney @InTheMoneyAdam]

I started trading when I was 20 from a 12’x5’ room with a shitty table for a desk and a mattress on the floor. I’d set my alarm every morning for a few minutes before market open to trade whatever money I had leftover as a college student.

When I made my first YouTube video, I did it in my high school track shorts and a tank top, and now I just crossed 175M AUM with Autopilot.

I often say it starts from my one remaining nut and works its way to my brain. If you try confirmation bias, you’ll try on failure. Buy what you like and use or would if you could. Or don’t over complicate it and let me do it for you.

Lock the fuck in.

[Astrid Wilde 🌞 @astridwilde]

in 2029 everyone will be asking why the hyperscalers didn't build more. it was so obvious. 3 year break evens on 5 year contracts with 6 years of useful life. inference will eat the world and we have barely begun. demand will more than 80x in less than 5 years

[TBPN @tbpn]

Here is the full letter Leopold sent to his LPs last night.

Rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

[Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly]

*LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER'S 'SITUATIONAL AWARENESS' FUND SEEKING ADDITIONAL CAPITAL AFTER AI-STOCK SELLOFF - FINANCIAL TIMES

- SITUATIONAL AWARENESS USED LEVERAGE BEFORE DRAWDOWN, LEADING TO SHARP DECLINE IN PORTFOLIO VALUE

- IN JULY 24 INVESTOR LETTER, LEOPOLD SAID FUND HAD "NOT BEEN IMMUNE" TO AI SELLOFF

- IN INVESTOR LETTER, LEOPOLD SHARED OPTIMISM FOR 2ND HALF OF THE YEAR, CITING ANTHROPIC IPO AS POTENTIAL CATALYST

- LEOPOLD ENDED INVESTOR LETTER WITH "P.S. AT TIMES WE CALL OUT OPPORTUNITIES THAT SEEM LIKE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME TO ADD FUNDS, IF YOU HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR ONE."