Travis

28, engaged, software engineer, president of a nonprofit, weather nerd, FDT 🏳️‍🌈🌪️

[Matthew Cappucci @MatthewCappucci]

Have weather forecasts seemed less accurate lately? There's a major contributing factor: nearly half the morning weather balloons in the Lower 48 are "missing."

This is an ongoing crisis that is degrading critical severe weather forecasts that we all rely on. It's having real, tangible impacts on degrading forecast quality.

If you work in transportation, agriculture or commerce, this should matter to you.

Regardless of the causes, this negatively affects people of ALL political backgrounds. Weather affects everyone. And it's impacting ALL of us negatively.

We can't look at weather balloon data that doesn't exist. We can't pump nonexistent data into models. We can't rely as heavily on models that don't "know" what's happening above our heads.

This is especially concerning for severe weather forecasts. We can't go 18 hours without ascertaining how the atmosphere is layered, how much storm fuel has built up and if severe thunderstorms are going to erupt. The Storm Prediction Center has even acknowledged forecasting frustrations in at least one public bulletin.

As an atmospheric scientist myself, I can say firsthand – the forecasts I'm able to offer you are less accurate than they would otherwise be. I'm not able to predict severe weather with the confidence I normally would. That is extremely concerning.

The United States is "supposed" to launch balloons at 0Z and 12Z ideally – a.k.a. around 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. Eastern time. That's not happening. Many sites, due to staffing issues stemming from broader political and organizational issues, have pushed to 18Z, or early afternoon. That's not helpful for morning severe weather forecasts. In other words, you get less lead time. Less advanced notice. Quicker ramp-ups and ramp-downs to the forecast.

We're not able to get jet stream, temperature, moisture or wind profiles of the atmosphere each morning like we otherwise would.

Moreover, the World Meteorological Organization encourages 12Z soundings; that data is shared via the Global Observing System (GOS) under the World Weather Watch (WWW). That's not happening.

[kam 🖤 @kamkizar]

illinois this year

[Travis @tstanger97]

@wxenthusia92047 @AnubizzzBurner

[Bob Waszak @nilwxreports]

Illinois has broken the state record of tornadoes in a given year. So far in 2026, Illinois has a confirmed 143 tornadoes breaking the record set back in 2024 of 142. #ilwx

[Travis @tstanger97]

1.3 mile tri-state tornado is incredible

[Travis @tstanger97]

1.3 mile tri-state tornado is incredible

[Travis @tstanger97]

@Office_Scary @StormNetWx I’m in the quad cities, I’m not liking the north shift… :(

[Travis @tstanger97]

@wh68239 @JJCooperWX Made it through without any storms! Very grateful

[Travis @tstanger97]

@StrmchsrHunterF I’d be out with gloves, not a camera…

[Travis @tstanger97]

@StrmchsrHunterF @JackPeltz1 Thoughts on the QC metro? Still in a bad spot, or has it shifted away?

[Travis @tstanger97]

@sbj310 @NWStornado I think you got it backwards, but yeah Eastern IA and Western IL

[Travis @tstanger97]

@nilwxreports Is the 60% wind risk for the second round as well? Or was that for this round? Also, do you know when we last had a 60% risk up here, because the August 2020 derecho was only 45%… 😅

[Captain Obvious™️ @TheFungi669]

I hate to admit this but Trump was right.

He said that if I vote for Kamala Harris gas prices, groceries prices and my utility bills will go through the roof.

I voted for Harris and my gas, groceries and utility bills have gone through the roof.

[Libertarian Party @LPNational]

The Epstein class won in Kentucky tonight.

[MP Arizona☀️🏳️‍🌈💙🌵🐕🐕‍🦺🫂💦🏜🐟🌴🎙🌎🌻♍️🌊 @AzPetrich]

Dear Thomas Massie,

Tear it all fucking down on your way out.

Sincerely,
America

[💙🌊 Zero Dark Twenty-Nine 🌊🌊🖋️🧫 @herotimeszero]

Massie lost.

Pedophilia won.

Kentucky, you must be very proud.

[Libertarians against Trump @jeffersonation1]

Vote democrat in the midterms. Destroy MAGA.

[Thomas Massie for Congress @MassieforKY]

I did not see this coming, but my election has become an inflection point for our whole country. Today we make history.

Will you be part of this historic day by voting, calling friends who can vote, posting to social media, or making a donation?

Spread the word fellow patriots!