Nick 🧩

Variance enjoyoor | Hunting Convexity

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

Reflexivity ♽

"There is only one objective reality, but there are as many different subjective views as there are thinking participants."

-Soros

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

@PlutonicXBT Lord snorlax what do you see for the hype token?

Show us the way..

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

@MacroOps @threadreaderapp unroll

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

@alwayspreparing @itswithinme_ God couldn't have gotten any more accurate with the name "preparing-ton" divine intervention here 😂

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

@PlutonicXBT @MelMattison1 Only question you should make yourself if you are a crypto golden bull run believer is if this chart ever breaks out imo

If the answer is yes, then patience will be required for a few more years

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

@DejaRu22 Currently experimenting with cycling low doses modafinil.

Curious to know if you’ve ever tried it.. thoughts?

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

@wclemente Crypto is also pricing in further risks that are still present.

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

@BasedBiohacker Any thoughts on modafinil not being optimal for social/creative endeavors even if that is the task at hand.

Tried it for the first time and had a chat with a colleague and wanted to punch him in the mouth after 10 minutes and couldn’t say a word

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

A beta asset, but every time it drops, it's because of a nefarious conspiracy where the reason for the drop is to allow the conspirators to accumulate more.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

This "Epstein Quantum Saylor Liquidated Tether Binance" Dip is 100% totally organic and not at all orchestrated FUD to shakeout retail retards right before CLARITY Act is law and the institutions flood in to take their Bitcoin at a generational entry point.

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

Degens continuing to long tf out of the dip makes me think we still see a deeper capitulation on $BTC

Stay safe out there

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

Noticed a reduction in spontaneous idea genration spurrs on moda,

The type that you will get from going on a walk and suddenly you know how to tackle a big obstacle youve had for a while.

Still think that cycling it helps with that but people should only take it on specific tasks- type of days

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

@PlutonicXBT When hype dump? Feeling like fomo top blasting the highs here

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

Just FYI:

Just saw a post from FaZe Banks shilling Hype as the most important company in the world right now.

[Tyler Neville @Tyler_Neville_]

We are watching a 21st Century Moment moving from Horse & Carriage to Racecars but it's really hard to discount.

Here is a framework that works in the current backdrop:

Investors have always had the choice of where to put their fiat money.

They can either invest in productive assets, sit in cash or sit in stores of value.

The simple equation of how to invest- Start with a basket of goods for $100. If productivity per year is 2% that basket of goods at the end of the year should cost $98 if you are invested in productive equity or business.

If inflation is 3% then that basket of goods at the end of the year would be $103 if you just sat in cash.

The difference between inflation & productivity is tax you pay to the issuer of the sovereign currency if you sit in cash. In this case you are paying 5% tax to sit in fiat cash.

Now where this gets really wonky is if you have productivity that is completely outside of any norm in history.

@leopoldasch Describes this productivity boom in his Situational Awareness treatise.

@RaoulGMI @LynAldenContact @SantiagoAuFund @Globalflows @jvisserlabs @fejau_inc @qthomp @GavinSBaker

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

Some nice looking wicks on the monthly chart, confluent with some key fibs $SPX

Don't look down 👀

@Trader_XO

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

@TraderBillyAU Hey Billy!

Any insights on why bitcoin is imploding? 😂

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

Time to run back the “austerity” playbook

Same thing as with the trump tariffs and budget cuts.

Any left tail risks will be fuel for further easing

[Huma @HumaCapital]

Warsh wants to do QT > no more (or delayed) Fed put > significant increase in left tail risk for US equities.

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

@PlutonicXBT 🔥

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

Being a dangerous pretty boy is the key to all your problems..

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

@atalantis7 Kinda feeling we fully retrace this into 15 liquidations.

Needed a big pump to flush out all the shorts. Now we can keep trending imo.

Let’s see how the weekly closes tho

[Nick 🧩 @TycoonCapitall]

So Japan, the largest global capital exporter to the world due to decades of ZIRP, is now begging to raise rates on higher growth and inflation expectations.

Meanwhile, US equities—the largest target for foreign investment and the final pool of carry trade flows—are clearly in a distribution while the us gov is trying to weaken the USD to boost industrial competitiveness while undergoing a cutting cycle.

Why wouldn’t you be long Japanese financials and tech? You benefit both from foreign capital flight back into the yen and from a strengthening economy.

Bullish yen/Japan & fading intervention FUD.