American Elections Analysis

Hello, I'm AEA. Here you'll find content on data, polling, predictions, election models, & forecasting, as well my takes on elections across the United States.

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

BREAKING: Voting starts in Israel's election

[FactPost @factpostnews]

The audience in Montana corrects Vance when he mispronounces Helena

[OSZ @OpenSourceZone]

Final Marist polls

Texas: 🔵 James Talarico + 2
Michigan: 🔵 Abdul El-Sayed + 2
Maine: 🔵 Troy Jackson + 2

[Politics Watch @politics_watch1]

NEW: Michigan Statewide Poll (Glengarrif)

Senate
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 51.4%
🟥Mike Rogers 45.1%

Governor
🟦Jocelyn Benson 51.4%
🟥John James 44.5%

10/19-10/22

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇯🇵 Chinese cars overtake Japanese cars in Europe for the first time ever.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

"In China, the AI bubble has already burst," per Reuters

[Fox News @FoxNews]

VANCE to heckler: “The American people will realize that all the Democrats are selling is a fat load of bulls***.”

[The Calvin Coolidge Project @TheCalvinCooli1]

🚨New: Thomas Massie says he will reintroduce impeachment articles against Secretary of War Pete Hegseth after the midterms elections

[NewsWire @NewsWire_US]

JUSTICE DEPT. HAS CHARGED FORMER FBI DIRECTOR JAMES COMEY AGAIN

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

My Final Governors Predictions

Alaska 🟦 Kress-Tomkins by 2-3pts
Texas 🟥 Abbott by 5-7pts
Ohio 🟥 Ramaswamy by 1-2pts
Georgia 🟥 Jackson by 2-3pts
Florida 🟥 Donalds by 7pts
Kansas 🟥 Masterson by 7pts
Iowa 🟦 Sand by 2-4pts
Nevada 🟥 Lombardo by 1-2pts

Final
🟥 Republicans 25
🟦 Democrats 25

Democrats net gain of 1

[Pollfinity @pollfinity]

POLLFINITY POLL AVERAGE

2026 Texas Senate

James Talarico: 48.3%
Ken Paxton: 46.3%
Average margin: Talarico +2.0

Simple average of the latest poll from 3 pollsters, field dates Oct 8 to Oct 19. Range: tie to Talarico +4. Mix: 3 likely voters.

Pollsters: Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, Emerson College, ReconMR/Siena University.
Pollfinity does not adjust for house effects or population.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Elon Musk surpasses George Soros as the largest political donor in the US

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Florida Early Vote Tracking ☀️

As of Oct. 26, 2026
Total votes: 2,671,880 (+768,650)
37.0% of projected final turnout.

Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 Angie Nixon: 46.2% - 56.6%
🔴 Ashley Moody: 42.7% - 53.1%

Remaining votes will be more Republican. We rate this race as Likely R.

[The Politics Guy @sthepoliticguy]

#SouthCarolinaSenate

Targoz Market Research/South Carolina Policy Council Poll - 10/16-10/25

U.S Senate South Carolina

🟥*Darline Graham 47%
🟦Annie Andrews 46%
⬜️Others 3%

🟥Graham +1

[Leading Report @LeadingReport]

Japanese minister urges citizens to stockpile food and water ahead of new disaster preparedness initiative.

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

GOVERNOR DECIDER #2: Wisconsin's open governor race is TIGHT.

🔵Crowley - 50.5%
🔴Tiffany - 48.3%

Chance to win: Crowley 65%, Tiffany 35%
Early vote: 525,954 ballots in as of 10/24
https://t.co/e7SVteBZL8

[News Now @NewsNowUS]

MICHIGAN POLL — Senate

🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 48%
🟥 Mike Rogers: 45.5%

Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | 836 LV | Oct 2-19

[US Poll Watch @USPollingWatch]

#NewPoll - North Carolina Senate 2026

🟦 Cooper, 52% (+9)
🟥 Whatley, 43%

Quantus

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - Governor poll - South Carolina

🔴 Alan Wilson (Inc) 51％
🔵 Jermaine Johnson 41％

Targoz Market Research (C) - 10/25

[Politics Watch @politics_watch1]

NEW: Michigan Senate (Glengarrif)

🟦Abdul El-Sayed 51.4%
🟥Mike Rogers 45.1%

10/19-10/22