rush

[Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow]

Someone is buying the $IBM dip with $2.6M worth of calls

IBM fell -25% today - its most since the 1987 crash

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

@gmoneyNFT Hyperliquid

[rush @user96158708]

Just watched whoever is MM'ing the new Kalshi perps get absolutely steam rolled.

[GravitySucks @Gravity5ucks]

Be careful what you read about gamma exposure being in billions, so pushing the thesis that a move up will be fueled by options market makers activity in the underlying. This is simply false!

This impact in this moment at this price level, is ~$25M.
25 millions over 60 billions daily in the sea of perps/futures/spot.

I talked to a tradfi guy GEX expert a couple of years ago, he said me that gex to be tradable should be in the 4% impact of total underlying market.

Bitcoin is roughly in the 0.10sh% and probably it won't change much.

[tak @tak_01_]

this is the EXACT purpose and utility of a model of any kind and why humans suck at probabilistic thinking

“x team is winning from draft”

ok how much? can you give me an exact number? ok compare these 3 drafts which is most to least winning and tell me exact numbers

now do this over 1000 games and everyone is basically useless, despite them potentially being directionally accurate

being right is overrated, worthless and potentially harmful, being precise is far more valuable

[Quant Beckman @quantbeckman]

The paper says it balances market impact, but the simulation largely avoids real impact. In the experiments, the authors say the schedule types are chosen in a live setting to minimize market impact, and that they are not simulating market impact in these tests. That means the framework is being evaluated in a setting where one of the central execution costs is muted.

[Sisyphus @0xSisyphus]

Kalshi in private markets is now worth double draftkings in public markets (which is a better business)

Late stage growth rounds are no longer done to make money, but instead to prime the public to invest at bloated valuations when the companies IPO

[Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️ @bennpeifert]

This is all getting so much hate. idk, take your moralizing elsewhere. Betting a little money on March Madness is a fun consumption good, it's literally no different than going out and spending money on movies or vodka tonics. Literally no one thinks they're going to get rich.

[yenwod @yenwod_]

Polymarket is still leading Hyperliquid perps outside of market hours

[eva @evaxbt_]

"$4.04 to $1.02 lol I wish they had more than 3x lev"
🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀🚀🌕🌕🌕

HAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHA

[jez (equity perps era) @izebel_eth]

perps are just the correct delta leverage instrument, and them eating more share of options/futures volume in the few years to come is all but guaranteed

a reliable home run in a world full of ai uncertainty

[rush @user96158708]

@tak_01_ they just quote wide same way MM’s quote wide when implied vol is elevated; let market price it whatever they want, just need something simple to initially price it then it will get arbed (by me) to whatever market decides to price.

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

One of the reasons I keep telling people to pay attention to the options market is because the flow is often ahead of the spot tape. My theory has been that in crypto, the options market is not crowded with retail the way it is in tradfi, and that it acts more as a filter for the more sophisticated participants.

[rush @user96158708]

@Bomboclatat I have my own scripts for order execution but don’t use it too often. I think a big thing is understanding the places where arbs are most likely to exist and then just position yourself before they show up so navigation is minimal.

[rush @user96158708]

good luck finding 2s opportunities on oddsjam. speed simply clears.

[rush @user96158708]

@TroveMarkets code please

[Newsy @NewsyJohnson]

CT fudding CS is a bottom

Newsy Johnson

[Valter Rebelo @valterebelo]

@qthomp quick and dirty

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

given that perps failed as a hedge on 10/10, i could see options becoming the defacto alternative used by insto participants and hence a stronger directional gauge going forward. recent put skews since the run-up to 126k suggest that may be the case