One thing people may not know is that Iran has been holding floating storage in the Gulf of Oman.
They have prepared for the possibility of a Naval blockade. They have also waited to sell oil.
Now that the blockade is here, Iran can use the floating storage to sell the oil to get revenue. This will buy them time.
In the meantime, oil prices are headed for demand destruction. This will now test which side has more resolve. Can the US really stomach prices that create COVID level demand destruction before the Iranian run out of money?
I don’t know, but it’s going to get messy.
But if you think the Iranians will fold right away, it won’t be that easy.
The myth of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
80% (16.25M bpd) of the 20M barrels per day supply of the Strait of Hormuz has already been replaced or been rerouted.
🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute
📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus
🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage
🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute
🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass
🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage
Deficit? Only 3.8M bpd and even just 2 more tankers per day would reduce the deficit to 0.
With 1.3B and 500 millions barrels in combined reserves for China & India respectively, they have a 3-4 month reserves before they run into a deficit.
This is why stocks are back at nearly ATH again. Opening the Strait of Hormuz has now merely turned into an afterthought.
What does this mean for you? Inflation. Higher costs for goods. But there's a silver lining for those paying attention: #Bitcoin. With traditional economies becoming more controlled and manipulated, Bitcoin stands out as the unmanipulated, decentralized alternative
This guy exposed the psychology behind why you buy things you don’t need.
His name is Dan Ariely.
Apple, Amazon, and Nike use his 8 principles to dominate their markets.
Here they are, and how you can use them to influence others:
Charlie Munger once said…
“In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn't read all the time"
11 book recommendations from Charlie Munger that'll make you Smarter:
‼️ I am thrilled to announced that "Putin's Europe" is out‼️
My contribution is about Russia's Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Warfare.
Moscow’s multifaceted strategy revolves around three intertwined fundamentals: an overt military invasion of Ukraine; a non-kinetic warfare to erode Western principles, norms, and standards; and a geoeconomic offensive, utilising commodity manipulation as a weapon against the European economic model. The visible, but more important invisible erosion of Western values, norms, and standards presents a direct threat to the EU’s internal security framework. By subverting the foundational principles upon which the Union was built, this aspect of the clash could gradually erode the Union’s integrity from within. Simultaneously, the geoeconomic warfare poses a substantial threat to the EU’s external security, placing Europe in a precarious position amidst the volatile fluctuations of an increasingly complex global scene. #geopolitics #geoeconomics https://t.co/1D87BekPGu
@EurLiberalForum
I’m 24.
I used to be stressed out of my mind and wasted years of my life making the wrong decisions.
Then I spent 100+ hours studying Charlie Munger’s letters to learn his mental models on decision making.
Here’s what I found:
2. The Mind Explained
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1. The Social Dilemma
This engaging documentary-drama hybrid delves into the transformative human impact of social networking, with tech experts passionately shedding light on their own creations.
The oil market now sits at the historical turning point for inventory trajectory, yet unlike last year where inventories had built by 85MM Bbls by now, this year they have fallen by 16MM Bbls (101MM Bbl swing). Despite demand f.e.a.r.'s, global oil inventories are near their lowest levels in history and CTAs/algos seem to be ignoring both the magnitude of 2H'24/1H'25 draws and the "will and intent" of HRH. OPEC cohesion remains strong and plans to later unwind the voluntary cut remain subject to market conditions, monitored by those who have shown an adept ability to remain "proactive, preemptive, and precautionary."
7. Codefy
A toolbox of useful coding widgets to help you speed up your coding workflow using AI.
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https://t.co/39TKZK8MjE
On Feb 16, I accurately measured inflation in #Pakistan at 60%/yr, over 2x the official rate of 27.55%/yr. This is why PAK takes 14th place in this week's inflation roundup. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Chief Statistician Naeem Zafar are publishing rubbish.
CHART OF THE DAY: European carbon dioxide emission permits climb to a record high of €100 as lower nat gas prices prompt some companies to re-start production | #ClimateChange
It increasingly looks like the Biden administration missed the window to buy oil for the SPR. US officials said they wanted to see prices in the $67-$72 range.
WTI is not trading at $72 until January 2025. And the benchmark is not trading below $67 until March 2026 | #OOTT
Putin’s plan to weaponize commodities & bring Europe to its knee through food, energy & fertilizers next to nuclear blackmail, migration & information war didn’t work out.
The West’s plan to isolate Russia didn’t work out either. The war is thus decided on the fronts in Ukraine.