I read an article recently (by Andreas Clenow) on why Technical Analysis (TA) has been tainted over the years and I believe it encapsulates a lot of what I believe.
I highly recommend it: https://t.co/N0m2e2z4np
One aspect of the article that really stuck with me was the TA community pushing what is basically pseudoscience. Fibonacci numbers and wave counts are often touted as having predictive power, but they are based on flawed logic and a lack of understanding of the financial markets. These mystical approaches to technical analysis only serve to further discredit the field.
The lack of a clear definition of TA has allowed it to encompass everything from drawing random lines on a chart to using the stars and moon to dictate your actions in the market.
Sometimes I think, am I just living in an upside-down world? But I always have to remember that trading is hard. I mean really hard! It takes time, hard work, and effort. It doesn’t come overnight. But what can come overnight is selling a dream to someone who wants to pursue trading! A course that will make you rich or the idea that by doing this one thing, by following this one technique, or drawing these lines on a chart, YOU will be successful.
For example, this article by Fortune highlights a girl named “Stefaniya Nova, who goes by blonderichwitch on TikTok, is a 25-year-old living in New York City using astrology, tarot, and “intuition” to guide her day trading”
And again, this has more to do with the potential to make money selling a dream than anything else. The alternative would be that this person is in a delusion land and believes that she can predict the outcome of the stock market based on the stars, which is probably even more concerning.
But hey we will never know. The only thing I do know is you should run as far away from these people as possible!
-F4VS
Good video that explains how the average young person feels like in the current economy.
Everyone i talk to mentions these issues. US & EU
https://t.co/maOpKo5sMu
https://t.co/BCpMqmKVco
A good source on @Qullamaggie.
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1200 setups here from @Hogtrades
https://t.co/yAOCfePWVl
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Years worth of charts
https://t.co/MmZI3NYXSh
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How to make money in stocks (book) has a ton of charts and is a classic.
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@NewLowObserver has a ton of very old charts as well on his Twitter account.
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Thank @Qullamaggie for most of the above.
I’m obsessed with how to reach financial freedom.
So, I spent 60+ hours studying how Naval Ravikant thinks about money.
Here’s what I found on becoming a quiet millionaire:
YouTube is Free education.
No need to pay for a college degree.
These 10 AI YouTube channels will teach you everything you could ever want to know about AI:
{ Thread 🧵 }
1/ There's a concept known as financial compounding, but most people don't know about intellectual compounding. Buffett and Munger employed this to great effect and to accumulate mental models such that they can make large decisions quickly. Intuition is simply reading a lot.
Some of my favorite @naval ideas:
1. If you don't know yet what you should work on, the most important thing is to figure it out.
2. Books make for great friends, because the best thinkers of the last few thousand years tell you their nuggets of wisdom.
3. You will get rich by giving society what it wants but does not yet know how to get. At scale.
4. To make an original contribution, you have to be irrationally obsessed with something.
5. The internet has massively broadened the possible space of careers. Most people haven't figured this out yet.
6. Learn to sell. Learn to build. If you can do both, you will be unstoppable.
7. Fortunes require leverage.
8. Leverage is a force multiplier for your judgment.
9. Arm yourself with specific knowledge, accountability, and leverage.
10. Specific knowledge is found by pursuing your genuine curiosity and passion rather than whatever is hot right now. Building specific knowledge will feel like play to you but will look like work to others.
11. Work as hard as you can. Even though who you work with and what you work on are more important than how hard you work.
12. Become the best in the world at what you do. Keep redefining what you do until this is true.
13. If you're not 100 percent into it, somebody else who is 100 percent into it will outperform you. And they won't just outperform you by a little bit—they'll outperform you by a lot because now we’re operating in the domain of ideas, compound interest really applies and leverage really applies.
14. Technology democratizes consumption but consolidates production. The best person in the world at anything gets to do it for everyone.
15. Escape competition through authenticity.
16. If you are fundamentally building and marketing something that is an extension of who you are, no one can compete with you on that.
17. When I talk about specific knowledge, I mean figure out what you were doing as a kid or teenager almost effortlessly. Something you didn't even consider a skill, but people around you noticed. Your mother or your best friend growing up would know.
(My mom told me that when I was a kid and ran out of things to read, I'd read the back of cereal boxes)
18. The more you know, the less you diversify.
19. The best jobs are neither decreed nor degreed. They are creative expressions of continuous learners in free markets.
20. Whenever you can in life, optimize for independence rather than pay.
21. You decide it's important to you. You prioritize it above everything else. You read everything on the topic.
22. The really smart thinkers are clear thinkers. They understand the basics at a very, very fundamental level.
23. The most important skill for getting rich is becoming a perpetual learner.
24. If you're evenly split on a difficult decision, take the path more painful in the short term.
25. What are the most efficient ways to build new mental models? Read a lot—just read.
26. I probably read one to two hours a day. That puts me in the top .00001 percent. I think that alone accounts for any material success I've had in my life and any intelligence I might have.
27. In the intellectual domain, compound interest rules.
28. All the real scorecards are internal.
29. A calm mind, a fit body, and a house full of love. These things cannot be bought. They must be earned.
30. Your real résumé is just a catalog of all your suffering. If I ask you to describe your real life to yourself, and you look back from your deathbed at the interesting things you've done, it's all going to be around the sacrifices you made, the hard things you did.
31. What you want in life is to be in control of your time.
32. Being at the extreme in your art is very important in the age of leverage.
33. Enjoy yourself. Do something positive. Project some love. Make someone happy. Laugh a little bit. Appreciate the moment. And do your work.
If you want an upgrade for your brain,
listen to these podcasts by @naval, @ToKTeacher and @DavidDeutschOxf.
Absolutely amazing!!!
Deutsch Files I: https://t.co/lL66IUtz4D
Deutsch Files II: https://t.co/6YVzSW3NKS
Deutsch Files III: https://t.co/O3AqtKTl8l
My experience with @BYDCompany goes back almost a quarter century as does my experience with @GanfengOfficial - the chairman of both companies share many similarities. Worth a read. https://t.co/GBAm8WVgR1 And yes @leixing77 I really do know these guys from the early days…..
Lessons Steve Jobs wanted to pass on.
Written right before he died.
In his own words:
1. ON BUILDING A REAL COMPANY:
I hate it when people call themselves “entrepreneurs” when what they’re really trying to do is launch a startup and then sell or go public, so they can cash in and move on.
They’re unwilling to do the work it takes to build a real company, which is the hardest work in business.
That’s how you really make a contribution and add to the legacy of those who went before.
You build a company that will still stand for something a generation or two from now.
That’s what Walt Disney did, and Hewlett and Packard, and the people who built Intel.
They created a company to last, not just to make money.
That’s what I want Apple to be.
2. ON TASTE OVER MARKET RESEARCH:
Some people say, “Give the customers what they want.” But that’s not my approach.
Our job is to figure out what they’re going to want before they do.
Henry Ford once said, “If I’d asked customers what they wanted, they would have told me, ‘A faster horse!'"
People don’t know what they want until you show it to them.
That’s why I never rely on market research.
Our task is to read things that are not yet on the page.
3. ON COMBINING IDEAS FROM DIFFERENT FIELDS:
Edwin Land of Polaroid talked about the intersection of the humanities and science.
I like that intersection.
There’s something magical about that place.
There are a lot of people innovating, and that’s not the main distinction of my career.
The reason Apple resonates with people is that there’s a deep current of humanity in our innovation.
I think great artists and great engineers are similar, in that they both have a desire to express themselves.
In fact some of the best people working on the original Mac were poets and musicians on the side.
In the seventies computers became a way for people to express their creativity.
Great artists like Leonardo da Vinci and Michelangelo were also great at science.
Michelangelo knew a lot about how to quarry stone, not just how to be a sculptor.
4. ON KNOWING WHY YOUR CUSTOMERS PAY YOU:
People pay us to integrate things for them, because they don’t have the time to think about this stuff 24/7.
If you have an extreme passion for producing great products, it pushes you to be integrated, to connect your hardware and your software and content management.
You want to break new ground, so you have to do it yourself.
5. ON WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU SHIFT THE FOCUS FROM GREAT PRODUCTS TO MORE SALES:
I have my own theory about why decline happens at companies like IBM or Microsoft.
The company does a great job, innovates and becomes a monopoly or close to it in some field, and then the quality of the product becomes less important.
The company starts valuing the great salesmen, because they’re the ones who can move the needle on revenues, not the product engineers and designers.
So the salespeople end up running the company.
John Akers at IBM was a smart, eloquent, fantastic salesperson, but he didn’t know anything about product.
The same thing happened at Xerox.
When the sales guys run the company, the product guys don’t matter so much, and a lot of them just turn off.
6. ON GREAT PRODUCTS BEING THE FOUNDATION OF AN ENDURING COMPANY:
My passion has been to build an enduring company where people were motivated to make great products.
Everything else was secondary.
Sure, it was great to make a profit, because that was what allowed you to make great products.
But the products, not the profits, were the motivation.
Sculley flipped these priorities to where the goal was to make money.
It’s a subtle difference, but it ends up meaning everything: the people you hire, who gets promoted, what you discuss in meetings.
7. ON BEING HONEST AND DIRECT WITH YOUR TEAM:
I don’t think I run roughshod over people, but if something sucks, I tell people to their face.
It’s my job to be honest.
I know what I’m talking about, and I usually turn out to be right.
That’s the culture I tried to create.
We are brutally honest with each other, and anyone can tell me they think I am full of shit and I can tell them the same.
And we’ve had some rip-roaring arguments, where we are yelling at each other, and it’s some of the best times I’ve ever had.
I feel totally comfortable saying “Ron, that store looks like shit” in front of everyone else.
Or I might say “God, we really fucked up the engineering on this” in front of the person that’s responsible.
That’s the ante for being in the room: You’ve got to be able to be super honest.
8. ON KEEPING THE TEAM EXCELLENT
I was hard on people sometimes, probably harder than I needed to be.
I remember the time when Reed (his son) was six years old, coming home, and I had just fired somebody that day, and I imagined what it was like for that person to tell his family and his young son that he had lost his job.
It was hard.
But somebody’s got to do it.
I figured that it was always my job to make sure that the team was excellent, and if I didn’t do it, nobody was going to do it.
9. ON TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE GREAT WORK THAT WAS CREATED BEFORE YOU:
What drove me?
I think most creative people want to express appreciation for being able to take advantage of the work that’s been done by others before us.
I didn’t invent the language or mathematics I use.
I make little of my own food, none of my own clothes.
Everything I do depends on other members of our species and the shoulders that we stand on.
And a lot of us want to contribute something back to our species and to add something to the flow.
It’s about trying to express something in the only way that most of us know how.
We try to use the talents we do have to express our deep feelings, to show our appreciation of all the contributions that came before us, and to add something to that flow.
That’s what has driven me.
10. ON CONSTANT REFINEMENT AND PERPETUAL MOTION:
You always have to keep pushing to innovate.
Dylan could have sung protest songs forever and probably made a lot of money, but he didn’t.
He had to move on, and when he did, by going electric in 1965, he alienated a lot of people.
His 1966 Europe tour was his greatest. He would come on and do a set of acoustic guitar, and the audiences loved him.
Then he brought out what became The Band, and they would all do an electric set, and the audience sometimes booed.
There was one point where he was about to sing “Like a Rolling Stone” and someone from the audience yells “Judas!”
And Dylan then says, “Play it fucking loud!”
And they did. The Beatles were the same way.
They kept evolving, moving, refining their art.
That’s what I’ve always tried to do—keep moving. Otherwise, as Dylan says, if you’re not busy being born, you’re busy dying.