Vin B

r*

[Vin B @vinboob]

has the Fed ever in history cut/hiked by any amount and then seen it wiped out by markets in 30 days?

no one seems to notice ..

[Vin B @vinboob]

@NickTimiraos bottom line: this Fed missed on neutral cause they relied on Williams who has been horribly wrong ..

[Vin B @vinboob]

@trengriffin He's gonna bail out annuities

[Vin B @vinboob]

@dailydirtnap just because it's not Lehman doesn't mean you can't have a severe credit contraction

[Vin B @vinboob]

@Super70sSports Ron Cey on looks alone

[Vin B @vinboob]

@junkbondinvest this doesn't even count the annuities

[Vin B @vinboob]

@historyrock_ amen

[Vin B @vinboob]

@shortbus_ace Wall St

[Vin B @vinboob]

@SteveMiran also please stop RRP..

[Vin B @vinboob]

not blowing up the financial system doesn't mean we don't have a very serious market and economic risk unfolding

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Private credit is fast-growing, opaque and intertwined with banks but lacks the scale and leverage that cashiered the economy in 2007, @greg_ip writes https://t.co/unTdrJ1gNZ

[Vin B @vinboob]

@NickNemo17 nice work Nick.. imo the bottom line that no one is discussing.. at some point in the not too distant future these PC assets will have to clear and all the would be buyers are the sellers .. you're right when it clears annuities are done

[Vin B @vinboob]

@shortbus_ace tbf a lot of the lev loans are for lbos of cos that shouldn't have been lbo'd .. but that the money was available

[Vin B @vinboob]

this what they did in March 2008 when BSC failed and oil was $75.. oil then doubled to $150 and you know the rest of the story. Fed is trapped which is what SOFR was pricing today

[Claudia Sahm @Claudia_Sahm]

"Higher inflation could cause the Fed to eventually raise interest rates. But Sahm said the Fed will also consider what could happen if energy costs rise so high that the economy slows down.

“That’s a scenario in which the Fed would be stepping in and potentially cutting rates, even though those energy prices are higher, because it’s starting to create unemployment and really wreck growth,” she said.

Sahm said all the Fed can do, at this point, is gather as much data as it can to prepare for any of those outcomes."
https://t.co/miX7hE65JB

[Vin B @vinboob]

assume most of 20% liquidity number is a credit facility and JPM just cut PC lines after an internal reval..increased redemptions and decreased credit lines is a bad combo.. imagine what other PC lenders (who dont reval) are thinking today. puckered up
@MichaelSedacca

[Vin B @vinboob]

@boazweinstein @kieranwgoodwin Soros calls it reflexivity

[Vin B @vinboob]

@CoachCalArk incredible Coach what you did for Trevon's career.. what a turnaround as a person and a player

[Vin B @vinboob]

@NickTimiraos What's interesting about this Fed is the bifurcation of the participant experience.. you have economists and practitioners.. the economists are focused on the models and the practitioners are focused on the system.. Logan, Hammack, Schmidt, Musalem.. they hawkish for a reason

[Vin B @vinboob]

@tracyalloway Ok

[Vin B @vinboob]

@NickTimiraos slow news day

[Vin B @vinboob]

@Claudia_Sahm the yield curve tells you all you need to know.. it's very simple actually

[Vin B @vinboob]

@dampedspring he's been a big disappointment