Seeing a lot of traders confused by this market breaking to new highs. Breadth is poor, so in their view, the market isn’t worth trading. They’re keeping exposure very low. I think that also helps explain why the Fear & Greed Index is still in “Fear.”
I explained my take on breadth a long time ago. It matters, but for discretionary traders, it isn’t as important as many make it out to be.
And have you considered that the market may have more room to run precisely because so many people are still underinvested?
Egan-Jones Ratings Co. (also called Egan-Jones Ratings).
This matches the details in Gundlach’s post and contemporary reporting: in 2024 the firm issued ratings on more than 3,000 private-credit deals (figures cited around 3,000–3,600) with a small staff of roughly 20–25 analysts
Major private equity/credit firm obfuscated its affiliated transactions and leaned heavily on suspicious ratings issued by a single rating agency. That agency rated 3200 deals in a year with a staff of 25 analysts. Deal documents are hundreds of pages.
NVDA $500B fund (not to be confused with funding) consortium plan will not likely age well. Assets of unknown life as collateral for long term debt? Why not do a 30 year ABS deal backed by warehouses of bananas? It’s OK, they’ll be newly engineered bananas of unknown life.
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This is what I mean by trading with an investor’s mindset.
Use technical analysis only when it deserves to be used.
Do not get trapped by patterns alone.
The best trades often come from combining price action, relative strength, business fundamentals, industry tailwinds, and a clear understanding of market psychology.
@ohiain Less is more, thanks for sharing. A quick question, how do you set stop for choppy market strategies, do you look for rebound from support? That means you will spend more time intra-day stalking than in a trending market?
@v72mn I'm usually looking for spots where there is structural potential price support, couple by a confluence of MA support in leading themes to get positioned! Ideally paired with an index gap down, where the index is similarly in a spot to pull off a price or MAU&R!
@SJosephBurns For lions (and in general any hunters) , big hunting can be existential. Treat each hunt as if it was the last, adopt same principle and rules, no tilt —> difficult but lions make it