Ruto just spent 40 minutes trying to create a false equivalence between our national values set out in the constitution and his so called “development”. Kenyans, please trust me when i tell you there is a reason the Preamble comes before Article 43. You don’t get to the “development “ clauses until and unless you have taken into account the reasons we passed this constitution in the first place. Democracy, Human Rights, Freedom, Equality, Rule of Law and Social Justice.
It is quite satisfying to watch the antelope loudly proclaim its friendship with the leopard. But the entire savanna knows, that this friendship has never existed anywhere but in the mind of the predator searching for a more comfortable way to feed, and that of a prey so foolish it has mistaken the beauty of those spots for something other than the last thing it will ever see..
Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.
So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.
Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?
Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.
For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.
Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.
Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.
Playing football when your competitor owns the referee, the assistant referee, the VAR and the monopoly of money & violence is such a huge leap of faith!
1. To stop GMOs, Ruto must go.
2. To save MSMEs, Ruto must go.
3. To stop goonism, Ruto must go.
4. To end abductions, Ruto must go.
5. To save our forests, Ruto must go.
6. To stop overtaxation, Ruto must go.
7. To rescue the payslip, Ruto must go.
8. To protect free speech, Ruto must go.
9. To end the slave trade, Ruto must go.
10. To prevent another dictatorship in Kenya, Ruto must go.
11. To roll back Parliamentary capture by the Executive, Ruto Must Go.
12. To prevent Kenya from turning into a narco-state, Ruto Must Go.
13. To stop the corrupt auction of public assets to the highest bidder, Ruto Must Go.
14. To prevent the use of outlawed gangs like Mungiki for political violence, Ruto Must Go.
15. To stop the theft of land in Kenya through government programs, including fake climate change schemes and affordable housing projects, Ruto must go.