JONATHAN TIRONE

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Critical mass: @virtualnomad.bsky.social

[JONATHAN TIRONE @virtualnomad]

"Years from now this war could end up contributing to Iran’s future power if it fails to bring about regime change"

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

Israel and the United States appear to be in an all-or-nothing gamble vis-à-vis Iran.

The likelihood of another campaign of the scale we are currently seeing in the coming months or years is very low, given the heavy political and logistical constraints — not to mention the possibility of other conflicts that could draw in the core attention of the United States, first and foremost China–Taiwan as we approach 2027.

Given that this may be a near one-time opportunity, it is clear that Israel and the United States are doing everything they can to maximize the achievements of the campaign — including attempts to work with various actors to destabilize the Iranian regime from within.

But what happens if the Iranian regime survives? And if, after this campaign, it moves to rebuild its strategic capabilities — including the nuclear program? It is doubtful that the United States and Israel would again be able to mobilize such a concentration of military power for another round.

This creates a Catch-22. Despite the significant operational achievements, ending this campaign without the fall of the regime — or at least without a surrender-type agreement in which Iran abandons its nuclear and missile capabilities — could lead to a situation in which the regime eventually rebuilds and grows stronger without an effective way to stop it.

Paradoxically, years from now this war could end up contributing to Iran’s future power if it fails to bring about regime change.

The regime clearly faces enormous internal and external challenges and will not recover easily. But ending the campaign in a way similar to previous rounds — if that is even possible — could produce the opposite of the intended outcome.

The key question, therefore, is whether the administration will intensify its activities to pursue the far more ambitious goal of regime change, or instead move quickly toward some form of agreement that could constrain Iran’s future military buildup — if such an agreement is even achievable.

Like poker players pushing all their chips into the pot, Israel and the United States seem to be “all in.” The strategic upside of regime change would be enormous for the region — but failing to achieve it could lead to a particularly painful strategic loss.

#iranisrae

[JONATHAN TIRONE @virtualnomad]

@russianforces is this a serious question?

[JONATHAN TIRONE @virtualnomad]

👇

[Isabella M Weber @IsabellaMWeber]

Trump is done in Davos. No boos. The world's elite sits and listens politely as he is putting the world on fire.

[JONATHAN TIRONE @virtualnomad]

More here via @NSArchive https://t.co/IQvzxJoeLM

[JONATHAN TIRONE @virtualnomad]

As @POTUS discusses #Greenland at @wef #Denmark commemorates the anniversary of a US strategic bomber crashing south of #USAF's Thule base -- 58 years ago today lost the secondary of a 1.1 megaton #nuclear bomb on the island's ice...

[Bloomberg @business]

A well-trodden pathway historically used by thousands of Europeans to gain access to US citizenship has been closed: Here's your European Evening Briefing https://t.co/HqZdR0KID5

[Leonardo @Leonardonclt]

🚨Last year @virtualnomad and I exposed how an obscure term "remigration" spread from a secret white nationalist circle in Austria to major political campaigns, and would influence major presidential elections. It is now the DHS slogan.

🎁Full story here: https://t.co/2M8EPKlVPU

[Holly Dagres @hdagres]

The JCPOA—which has been on life support since the US withdrawal in 2018—was declared dead today on September 26, 2025

[JONATHAN TIRONE @virtualnomad]

The race to become the next #UN secretary-general shaping up to be one of the most unusual in recent memory 🎁🔗 https://t.co/zANVCbDecz

[JONATHAN TIRONE @virtualnomad]

A 🇺🇳 UN SECRETARY-GENERAL EVEN 🇺🇲 MAGA COULD 💕 LOVE ⁉️ More at the 🎁🔗 https://t.co/Cl40RoPPKJ

[Ambassador Mike Waltz @USAmbUN]

Today I had the pleasure of meeting @IAEAorg DG Rafael Grossi. President Trump’s strong leadership is keeping America safe, and the IAEA is a key partner in ensuring global nuclear safety, security, and nonproliferation. The IAEA must pressure Iran to meet its obligations under the NPT, and guarantee that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.

[JONATHAN TIRONE @virtualnomad]

Wow...1:33:00 mark @iaeaorg

[Senate EPW Democrats @EPWCmte]

WATCH: EPW holds a vote on Trump’s nominee to lead @WHCEQ47.

EPW also holds a hearing on the Trump Admin’s political infiltration and interference at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which threatens our nation’s nuclear progress. https://t.co/m9YXqESeUZ

[Dan Williams @DanWilliams]

Iran’s blackout of international inspections has led to a critical loss of knowledge about the country’s nuclear work, the UN atomic watchdog wrote in two restricted reports https://t.co/ZD6Hiuo0fr via @VirtualNomad

[Bloomberg @business]

European Union leaders will be watching at a distance when Eurasian heads of state gather this weekend for the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Here's your Evening Briefing https://t.co/qyHZNcZjVf

[Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi]

Acting on behalf of Israel and the U.S., the E3 have decided to maliciously pursue pressure on the Iranian people. This folly—which Iran has sternly warned against—is immoral, unjustified, and unlawful.

Iran has cautioned that having been left out by the U.S. on all global issues—even Ukraine on their own doorstep—Europe should not deceive itself about "snapback" being leverage for it to play a role in at least one arena. Iran has made clear how pursuing that path will turn the E3 into a permanently spent force.

Disturbingly, the European troika is now framing its reckless gambit as an endeavour to "advance diplomacy".

I have personally led talks with the US over the past two decades. My country has been engaged in five rounds of nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration this year. On the eve of a sixth round of talks, Iran was bombed. First by Israel, and then by the United States. It is repugnant for Europe to now accuse Iran of having left the table and spurning dialogue. The reality is that we are at a point where the West cannot even guarantee that it will cease further unlawful military strikes on my people while negotiations are held.

The actions of the European troika effectively reward the offender and punish the victim. It was the United States, not Iran, that unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed sanctions. It was Europe, not Iran, that failed to fulfil its commitments to mitigate the economic impact of the US withdrawal. It was also Europe, not Iran, that not only failed to implement their commitments on Transition Day (Oct. 2023), but also imposed new illegal sanctions on Iranian civil aviation and shipping.

As I have made abundantly clear, the E3's decision will have significant adverse impacts on diplomacy. It will severely undermine the ongoing dialogue between Iran and the IAEA. It will also compel an appropriate response.

The path chosen by Europe, if not curbed, will additionally have severe consequences for the credibility of the UN Security Council. Invoking the so-called snapback mechanism without due process or a legal basis not only undermines confidence in the Council’s decisions, but also endangers international peace and security. It is high time for the Council—and the world—to step up and say: "ENOUGH".

[Shemuel Meir @ShemuelMeir]

אייל חולתא מדבר באופן כללי ומצטרף בלי ראיות עובדתיות לבון טון חדש: שיח הסבוב השני מול גרעין איראן. מציע לכן ללמוד ולפענח את האירוע הקודם של התקפת הפתע ב-13 ביוני שהיא עדין אניגמה. במאמר החדש שלי
https://t.co/xh6PEYunPd
שאלתי האם היה איום קיומי באותו הלילה כמו שנאמר?לפי הניתוח

[JONATHAN TIRONE @virtualnomad]

Some 56 days since #IAEA monitors last verified #Iran's inventory of enriched #uranium, the world is waking up to #ColdWar concepts of strategic #ambiguity. Which path would you choose 🎁🔗 👇 via @Business @bpolitics #OOTT
https://t.co/l9nsDdsDs1

[JONATHAN TIRONE @virtualnomad]

Including almost 500 in Iran during 2024

[IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ @iaeaorg]

In 2024, the IAEA conducted more than 3000 in-field verification activities at over 1300 nuclear facilities and locations outside facilities around the world, according to the latest Safeguards Implementation Report.

More information here: https://t.co/skarJk6yLIn 2024, the IAEA conducted more than 3000 in-field verification activities at over 1300 nuclear facilities and locations outside facilities around the world, according to the latest Safeguards Implementation Report.

More information here: https://t.co/skarJk6yLIn 2024, the IAEA conducted more than 3000 in-field verification activities at over 1300 nuclear facilities and locations outside facilities around the world, according to the latest Safeguards Implementation Report.

More information here: https://t.co/skarJk6yLIn 2024, the IAEA conducted more than 3000 in-field verification activities at over 1300 nuclear facilities and locations outside facilities around the world, according to the latest Safeguards Implementation Report.

More information here: https://t.co/skarJk6yLIn 2024, the IAEA conducted more than 3000 in-field verification activities at over 1300 nuclear facilities and locations outside facilities around the world, according to the latest Safeguards Implementation Report.

More information here: https://t.co/skarJk6yLIn 2024, the IAEA conducted more than 3000 in-field verification activities at over 1300 nuclear facilities and locations outside facilities around the world, according to the latest Safeguards Implementation Report.

More information here: https://t.co/skarJk6yLw

[Dan Williams @DanWilliams]

UN Atomic Watchdog’s Iran Exit Deepens Inspections Blackout https://t.co/j3QdItgZMf via @VirtualNomad

[Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi]

Fake news. Iran remains committed to the NPT and its Safeguards Agreement. In accordance with the new legislation by Majlis, sparked by the unlawful attacks against our nuclear facilities by Israel and the U.S., our cooperation with @iaeaorg will be channeled through Iran's Supreme National Security Council for obvious safety and security reasons.

Reality: To Iranians, what truly "sends a devastating message" and destroys "a diplomatic solution" is very obvious:

- Germany's explicit support for Israel's unlawful attack on Iran, including safeguarded nuclear sites, as "dirty work" carried out on behalf of the West. Germany also shamefully supported the unlawful U.S. attack against Iranian nuclear facilities, which violated international law, the NPT, and the UN Charter.

- Germany's repudiation of its JCPOA commitments by openly demanding "zero enrichment" in Iran.

Iranians were already put off by Germany's Nazi-style backing of Genocide in Gaza, and its support for Sadam’s war on Iran by providing materials for chemical weapons.

The explicit German support for the bombing of Iran has obliterated the notion that the German regime harbors anything but malice towards Iranians.

[JONATHAN TIRONE @virtualnomad]

Nice overview by @james_acton32 on straight-forward magnesio-thermic-reduction process. Tiresome to hear Western officials perpetually underestimate #Iran #nuclear #engineering talent via @ArmsControlWonk https://t.co/7ZSL8yV692

Here's how a so-called "bomb-reactor" kit looks: