대긍정성

효과적 현실주의(e/real): 신기술, 선행 집착을 떠나 체감현실 중심의 효과적 개혁에 집중함 | 실력주의 | 봇기반사회 | 봇경제학 | 무노동문명

[대긍정성 @vision4creation]

나의 포지션은 5월26일 93달러에 기계적 손절, 6월 4일의 93달러 2차 하향으로 실패 확정됨. 최종적으로 5월29일 87달러 저점을 재차 붕괴시킨 6월12일 84달러로 분석 실패까지 인정했다. 내 패착은 미국, 일본 정부의 개입능력을 과소평가 한 것으로 평가한다. 이제는 증시 공매도에만 집중한다.

[распад и неуважение @VictorKvert2008]

This is not AI. Every drone you see in this video is being controlled by a single Ukrainian operator. There is currently no technology capable of countering this, and I don’t think one will exist anytime soon.

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

THIS IS WHAT’S HAPPENING IN IRAQ RIGHT NOW

Reports are emerging tonight of gunfire inside Baghdad’s Green Zone as government-aligned special forces, backed by Iraqi Army armor, reportedly move against pro-Iran political figures.

The details are still developing and should be treated as unconfirmed.

But the bigger question is clear:
Is Iraq beginning to reclaim its sovereignty?

Since the fall of Saddam, Iran has embedded itself deep inside Iraq’s political system, militia networks, and security architecture. Tehran has treated Iraq less like a neighbor and more like a forward operating base.

Recent reporting has also pointed to IRGC-linked covert cells operating inside Iraq and using Iraqi territory to threaten Gulf states and U.S.-aligned interests.

So if Baghdad is now moving against pro-Iran power centers, this may not be just another internal political clash.

It may be the beginning of a much larger fight:
Iraq vs. Iran’s occupation network.
Sovereign state vs. militia state.
Baghdad vs. Tehran.

[Sam Gatlin @sam_gatlin]

After years of no progress, the healthcare sector is breaking out to new all-time highs 📈

[대긍정성 @vision4creation]

나의 포지션은 5월26일 93달러에 기계적 손절, 6월 4일의 93달러 2차 하향으로 실패 확정됨. 최종적으로 5월29일 87달러 저점을 재차 붕괴시킨 6월12일 84달러로 분석 실패까지 인정했다. 내 패착은 미국, 일본 정부의 개입능력을 과소평가 한 것으로 평가한다. 이제는 증시 공매도에만 집중한다.

[대긍정성 @vision4creation]

차트로보나 내재가치로 보나 국제정세(사보타주)로 보나 기름에서 3년짜리 큰 판이 벌어지는 것 같다. 내 판단이 맞다면 일본 등의 초거대 플레이어들이 112달러까지 선물 다 쓸어가고, 유가는 궁극적으로 220, 330을 돌파할 것이다. 3년 안에..

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Semiconductor index.📉

Livermore cylinder update.

She's beautiful.

For one's private perusal ✍️

Enjoy.

[대긍정성 @vision4creation]

이란시민들의 민주주의는 살아 있다. 그들은 해방될 자격이 있다. 나는 광주민주화운동을 팔아먹고 권력을 잡은 한국 운동권세대 정치인들이 이들의(그리코 홍콩인들의) 날갯짓에 침묵하는 꼴을 참아줄 수가 없다. 광주에서 200명이 죽었다. 이란시민들은 몇 주 전에 40000명이 학살당했다. 인본주의?

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

BREAKING:

Anti-regime protests are breaking out in Iran again after Crown Prince @PahlaviReza issued a new call on the people to show their opposition to the Islamist regime

🦁☀️🇮🇷

[Aric Chen @aricchen]

🚨 Just in: President Trump Slaps Beijing in the Face: “I’ll Call Taiwan’s President ANYTIME I Want!” 🔥

While the Chinese Communist Party screams “hands off” and threatens to blow up U.S.-China relations, President Trump just looked straight into the cameras on Air Force One and said the quiet part out loud: “I’ll always talk to him.”

That “him”? Taiwan President Lai Ching-te @ChingteLai.

This isn’t some backchannel whisper. This is President Trump openly floating the first direct presidential phone call between Washington and Taipei in decades — right as he pushes a massive $14 billion U.S. arms package to arm Taiwan against Beijing’s bullying.

Beijing’s embassy in D.C. already issued the usual tantrum: “Handle Taiwan with extreme caution or else.” Translation: Don’t you dare treat Taiwan like a real country.

President Trump’s answer? Watch me.

Lai is ready. He’s already drafting the script: tell President Trump the truth — Beijing is the only destroyer of peace in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan’s defense budget is exploding for one reason: Chinese warplanes, ships, and missiles swarm its airspace and waters every single week. Buying American weapons isn’t “provocation” — it’s survival.

Policy experts are stunned. One senior China watcher called the potential call “more explosive than the arms deal itself.” Beijing sees direct leader-to-leader contact as the ultimate red line. Trump just stepped on it with both boots.

This is the same President Trump who stared down Xi before. The same man who never bought the “strategic ambiguity” lie that kept Taiwan dangling for 40 years. Now he’s signaling: America stands with democratic Taiwan — openly, loudly, and without apology.

Think about what this means:

- First direct U.S.-Taiwan presidential hotline since the 1970s.
- A $14 billion message written in steel: American weapons, American resolve.
- Beijing’s bluff is being called in real time.

The old game is over. The era of treating Taiwan like a dirty secret is dead.

If you’re tired of watching the free world bow to communist bullies, this is your moment.

President Trump isn’t asking for permission. He’s daring Beijing to do something about it.

Share this if you believe Taiwan deserves to be treated like the thriving democracy it is — not a bargaining chip.

Comment “TAIWAN STRONG” if you’re done with CCP threats.

The world is watching. History is being made at 35,000 feet on Air Force One.

And Trump just made sure Beijing heard every word.

#TaiwanStrong #Taiwan #CCP

[대긍정성 @vision4creation]

군중은 현재 아편굴 속 장삼이사처럼 집단적으로 취해있다. 너도나도 취해 있을 때는 그것이 비정상적 상황인지 인식하지 못하고, 오히려 당연한 정상 상황으로 착각하며 자기암시 세뇌를 반복한다.

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

Peter Lynch said it in 1997 and it is still the most important thing most investors refuse to hear (Save this).

"The stock doesn't know you own it" and that is the whole rule, and almost no one actually lives by it.

You could be the most generous, kind, virtuous person who ever lived, if you owned Bethlehem Steel, you lost money for thirty years.

You could have 67 spouses and never done a single thing right in your life, if you owned Coca-Cola, your investment went up 300-fold.

The stock does not care about you, your intentions, your character or your conviction level.

The market has no memory of how much research you did before buying.

It does not reward your loyalty for holding through a rough patch, and it does not punish your indifference if you happen to own the right business.

It does not know your name, your cost basis, or how long you have held it and yet most people invest as if it does.

Lynch described this behavioral trap because people treat stocks like a grandchild or a puppy, as if the stock knows who they are and will eventually come back to reward them for their patience.

That emotional attachment is precisely what destroys portfolios over time because it turns every investment decision into a referendum on the investor's identity rather than an honest assessment of the underlying business.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

People keep saying “this isn’t like 2000.” They’re right... it’s bigger.

In the dot‑com boom you had:

- 2,821 IPOs
- totaling 334B USD in value

In the AI boom you have three flagship deals:

- SpaceX
- Anthropic
- OpenAI

All are valued north of 1T. Inflation‑adjusted, one of them is almost 2× the size of every dot‑com IPO combined.

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

The global meltdown scenario is now moving up in my calculation to how soon is now?

This two day selloff is already worse than March 2020 for Korean AI stocks.

Monday morning is margin call in Korea.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Would anybody be surprised if we get a short squeeze in the U.S. Dollar? $DX_F

[대긍정성 @vision4creation]

마이클 버리와 함께 나의 동반자… 나는 늘 군중의 반대로 간다.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

It's coming.

Remain disciplined,
remove impulsiveness,
add patience.

God bless and godspeed.

Yours truly,
The Great Martis.

She's beautiful.

[대긍정성 @vision4creation]

@ki_young_ju Mstr이 파산하지 않는 경우에만 흡수 대전제가 먹히죠. 대주주가 대규모 주식 팔아먹으면서 개인 지분른 매도하는 회사는 장부의 지속가능성을 믿으면 안됩니다. 거기서 금리변동 못견디면 비트코인은 적어도 서너번 이상의 반토막 회전파동은 더 감내해야 할 겁니다.

[대긍정성 @vision4creation]

200년 치 공부를 해놨는데 200년래 최대 버블을 다 보는구나. 이번 생애는 다시 볼 수 없는 주봉 역해머가 한국장에서 속출하는 중이다. 엄청난 불장난이었다.

[대긍정성 @vision4creation]

내일부터 빅스를 왕창 사야겠다.

[대긍정성 @vision4creation]

드러켄밀러가 왜 인터넷 버블 최고점에서 참다참다 물렸는지 이해된다. 이성적으로 매수를 말려온 주변 모든 지인 가족들이 징징 거리면서 최고가 매수를 조용하는데 그 짜증과 스트레스가 꽤 크다. 현재 버블은 200년래 최대 규모 버블이다.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

China Sold🇨🇳
Japan Bought🇯🇵
South Korea Bought Too🇰🇷

Australia’s Browse LNG project is becoming a proxy for Asian energy security.

BP just sold 5% to South Korea’s GS Energy.

Last month, Japan’s Inpex bought PetroChina’s 10% stake.

PetroChina exited.

2 Asian buyers in.
1 Chinese seller out.

BP trims but keeps control.

Browse feeds the North West Shelf, one of Australia’s biggest LNG export hubs.

-Pacific access.
-No Hormuz.
-No Middle East chokepoint.

For Japan and South Korea, this is energy security insurance.

Both countries import almost all their energy.

Both have watched Middle East exposure become a liability.

Browse still has no FID.
It still faces regulatory hurdles.
It is long-dated and expensive.

And yet Seoul and Tokyo are buying now.

That tells you the real signal:

The Hormuz shock did not just move oil prices.

It revalued every molecule of non-Middle East gas.

[JTheretohelp1 @JTheretohelp1]

The P/E10 ratio* closely tracks the real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite, with a detrended correlation of 0.9977 since 1881.

*NOTE: The P/E10 ratio, also known as the CAPE Ratio, is a stock valuation metric that divides a broad market index's current price by its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. It has been used by analysts to determine how expensive or cheap the market is. It strips out noise and looks at real earnings adjusted for inflation to give investors a better sense of value.

The historical average for the P/E10 is 17.7, but it has experienced dramatic swings between over- and undervalued periods.

The latest April reading of 37.9 is 69% above its long-term trendline. The disconnect has grown even wider as we closed out May.

Prior overshoots include:
• Panic of 1873 (Railroad bubble)
• Panic of 1907 (Copper Scheme)
• 1929 (Peak before Great Depression)
• 1966 (Peak before stagflation of the 1970s)
• 2000 (Peak of dot-com bubble)
• 2007 (Peak prior to GFC)
• 2021 (Last peak before 2022 Bear)

However, none of the prior overshoots I just listed, as shown in the attached chart, extended as far above the market’s “fair valuation” trend as today.

‼️2026 is by far the largest disconnect from trend in over 150 years‼️

And regardless of how big this current bubble is blown, this time is NOT different. All prior overshoots were followed by a drastic decline in markets, both in real and nominal terms.

Have a lovely Sunday. 😊

Source: Advisor Perspectives

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

Every major SPR drawdown in history followed the same script:
📉 During the release → prices stay suppressed
⏸️ At the bottom → extreme volatility
📈 After the release ends → sharp reversal
2022 proved it.
2023 confirmed it.
2026 will not be different.
The only question is: how violent is the snap?

[UnveiledChina @Unveiled_ChinaX]

Beijing has scored a major intelligence and talent victory in the semiconductor war, extracting a top scientist directly from TSMC’s advanced supply chain to turbocharge its domestic chip production.

Renowned semiconductor prodigy Da Bo has officially returned to China along with his entire research team, abandoning a highly celebrated career in Japan to become a chair professor at the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC). Da Bo previously rose through the ranks as the youngest tenure-track academic in the history of Japan’s National Institute for Materials Science (NIMS). Crucially, he led a joint research project with U.S. chip equipment giant Lam Research that developed the core materials and inspection equipment directly underpinning TSMC’s upgraded 3nm advanced production line in Kumamoto, Japan.

His highly coordinated repatriation deals a direct blow to allied chip containment efforts. Da Bo openly stated that his explicit goal is to immediately elevate Chinese semiconductor equipment, materials, and components to dominant global standards. By extracting a team that intimately understands the engineering secrets of TSMC’s 3nm process, Beijing is effectively bypassing Western sanctions, using reverse-engineered talent to systematically close the technology gap with the West.

#UnveiledChina #ChipWar #TSMC #Semiconductors #DaBo #TechEspionage #TaiwanStraight #USTC