William Hicks

Co-Founder & CEO @magicmind | Co-Founder @bramisnacks

Building, operating, and investing in food & beverage brands that nourish mind, body, and soul.

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

@lennysan Milwaukee fastback box opener. To fight the never ending deluge of boxes but feel cool and efficient while doing it :)

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

@noahsfriedman @getoutersignal Love it. Will try it out now! Keep COOKING

[Terence Mandable @BluetoothTerry]

Speaking With The Mind | Neuralink https://t.co/qYG9Cgi0AE via @YouTube

Neuralink has been a game changer as I battle ALS! Please consider supporting me as we Walk to Defeat ALS finding a cure and supporting those currently suffering! Walkers to show support on 10/3, or donations in any amount make a difference!

https://t.co/F9i4KgcqbX

Want to learn more about my journey with Neuralink you can follow me on TikTok @mandabot33 or on X @BluetoothTerry

Lori Bush Mandable Catie Mandable Kiri Mandable The ALS Association

#Neuralink #ALSawareness #BCI

https://t.co/GUVuZIUKqQ

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

@willnitze For us it’s a smaller volume Faire and it’s on autopilot

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

@JacquesDrop Big things coming 👀

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

@shivsakhuja Talk to me goose

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

@ecommcowboy @magicmind Thanks for having me on!

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

@andrewmccalip Hope we are the first CPG brand to vaporize a few hundred bucks on this!

@andrewmccalip lemme know how it's performing!

@magicmind

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

Amen. And LTR should be net revenue (netting out discounts)

[Bill D'Alessandro @BillDA]

I never want to hear the term LTV again.

Every ecommerce brand should be run off two true north customer metrics: LTR and LTP.

The problem is that LTV is a revenue metric. Not profit. Not cash. Revenue.

And the next words out of people's mouths after "LTV" is usually "CAC" - and revenue is a pretty dumb thing to compare to CAC.

Revenue still has to survive COGS, freight, fulfillment, refunds, merchant fees, and all the other little margin goblins hiding in the P&L before you can use it to pay for CAC.

This sounds obvious until you see how often it gets abused. Brand says: "Our LTV:CAC is 4:1" and means "We paid $50 to acquire a customer who eventually spends $200."

Great, except that $200 might include $60 of COGS, $25 of shipping / fulfillment, $7 of merchant fees, and $20 of refunds, subscription discounts, fraud, etc.

So your $200 "LTV" is actually $88 of contribution profit before CAC.

Your "4:1" ratio just became 1.4 to 1

And that’s before fixed overhead, agency fees, payroll, software, and profit (you do want profit right?)

This is why ecommerce brands should kill the term LTV entirely and split it into two metrics:

LTR = Lifetime Revenue.
This is what most people are calling LTV today. It’s useful! It tells you whether customers come back, how strong repeat behavior is, how long the reorder cycle is, whether cohorts are expanding or decaying, and whether the product has real downstream demand or you just bought a first order.

But LTR is not profit. It’s a revenue metric. Use it for retention, cohort quality, forecasting, merchandising, subscription analysis, etc. Do not put it in a ratio with CAC.

LTP = Lifetime Profit.
This is the number that actually matters. LTP = lifetime revenue - COGS - shipping / fulfillment - merchant fees - refunds / discounts.

You can argue about exactly what else belongs in there - customer service, packaging, duties, pick/pack, whatever. Different businesses have different cost structures.

But the principle is simple: how much contribution profit does this customer generate before acquisition cost? That is the pool of money available to pay CAC.

If LTP:CAC is below 1:1, you are losing money on acquired customers and you need to pull back.

If you spend $60 to acquire a customer and they generate $45 of lifetime contribution profit, you are not “investing in growth.” You are paying people $15 to buy your product.

That may be intentional. Maybe you’re venture-backed. Maybe you’re buying market share. Maybe you have a credible path to better gross margin, higher AOV, stronger repeat purchase, cheaper shipping, or lower CAC. Fine. Just call it what it is.

The question that really matters for brands is: how much profit does a customer generate, how long does it take to show up, and what did we pay to get it? So yes, track lifetime revenue. Just call it LTR.

But run your customer acquisition on LTP. And stop comparing revenue to CAC.

I never want to hear about LTV again.

[Will Ahmed @willahmed]

You have no experience.
You’ve never started a company.
You’ve never had a full time job.
Nike is going to kill you.
You’re a kid.
You don’t have technical skills.
You shouldn’t build hardware.
Apple is going to kill you.
You can’t build hardware.
You can’t measure heart rate non-invasively.
Athletes don’t care about recovery.
Under Armour is going to kill you.
It won’t be accurate.
You don’t listen.
You’re an ineffective leader.
You can’t recruit great talent.
You’re going to have to pay every athlete.
You can’t measure sleep non-invasively.
It’s too expensive to research.
Athletes are a small market.
The product costs too much to make.
The product costs too much to sell.
Your valuation is too high.
Consumers aren’t going to want it.
Hardware is too hard.
You should measure steps.
Fitbit is going to kill you.
You can’t build a marketing engine.
You can’t raise enough money.
You need a real CEO.
Google is going to kill you.
You can’t be a subscription.
You can’t build a brand.
You can’t do consumer in Boston.
Your valuation is too high.
You shouldn’t make accessories.
You shouldn’t make apparel.
Lululemon is going to kill you.
You can’t predict Covid.
Stay in your niche.
You are going to run out of money.
You can’t build a health platform.
Amazon is going to kill you.
You can’t measure blood pressure.
You can’t get medical approvals.
The market is too small.
You don’t understand AI.
The market is too competitive.
It won’t work internationally.
The supply chain is too complicated.
You can’t build an AI.
You can’t raise enough money.
It’s too competitive.
Healthcare isn’t going to want it.
…

Just keep going ✌️

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

Agreed on the business model, but I think the cost savings will flow to CAC and zuch’s pockets.

As brands adopt AI and successfully lower SG&A, they will be able to afford a higher CAC and will pay for it.

Ad market will reflect that. If you don’t adopt AI, you won’t be able to affordably acquire customers, which will be the forcing function on the industry.

At least that’s my prediction 🤖

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

This is correct from our recent experience at Magic Mind. We’ve accelerated hiring as the surface area of what’s possible to get done has increased.

‘The mistake that people make when thinking about ROI is making the "R" the core variable, when the real point of leverage is bringing down the cost of "I"’

[Aaron Levie @levie]

https://t.co/lXehx9mkQJ

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

@connorrolain @getoutersignal We got a Kim K insta story thanks to @getoutersignal

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

I’m so proud to be his son. And while our family is devastated with sadness, it is a sweet sadness filled with love for him and for each other and with gratitude for everything he taught us.

I’m also grateful that he knows exactly how much he was loved. I encourage everyone with aging parents to write them a love letter. Leave no words unsaid. Make their life.

[Victory+ @victoryplustv]

𝐇𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐥𝐨𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐲. 💚

Tonight we honor the enduring mark Thomas O. Hicks leaves on the Dallas community.

@DallasStars | #TexasHockey

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

Give @magicmind a try!

It’s a daily 2oz shot for peak mental performance. It delivers a sharper mind, calm energy and less stress with 12 clinically-backed ingredients that are encapsulated for 5x the absorption and great taste.

It works for ~80% of people and the rest can get their money back. We have 35k subscribers who swear by it, five years into building the business.

We’re running our best sale of the year right now on our @Shopify site:
https://t.co/6HtAuuSTpX

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

@jackbutcher Self serving plug: @magicmind sleep performance shot

[O.W. Root @owroot]

The window seat on a plane is an incredible modern blessing. Imagine our ancestors getting to take in such a view. They would have been stunned, speechless. And yet, some close the shade and do what? My God.

I can't understand those who shut the shade, and shut out the world.

[Cody Plofker @codyplof]

If I really wanted to get promoted and move up in the workplace, I’d build AI workflows and agents to automate half of my job and use the extra time to tackle much larger projects that my company hasn’t had the time to.

[William Hicks @w_c_hicks]

All this gorilla talk has me thinking - Who wins, 100 to-do’s vs 10 @magicmind’s