Danny

Small cap investor. Looking for interesting companies with asymmetric upside potential.

You can read my write-ups here: ➡️

[Danny @wallstdanny]

I've decided to translate all my previous company write-ups to English ( $AEP.V, $HQI, $CPH.TO + an overview of my portfolio)

Also, I finally came up with a proper name and a logo for the blog. Feel free to check it out and let me know what you think! ⬇️

[Arborator Capital Research @AC__research]

One of our highest-conviction ideas is going live today🔥

44% revenue growth until 2028
4x 2028 earnings
Potential dividend approaching 10% in 2028
Large discount versus peers
High barriers to entry
non AI and uncorrelated to broader market
55 % IRR over 3 years in the base case

Imagine finding a founder-led company with a unique competitive position, operating in a niche market with powerful long-term structural tailwinds, trading at a valuation that looks more like a struggling cyclical business than a high-quality compounder.

That’s exactly what we believe we’ve found.

Based on management guidance and our own work, the business is expected to compound revenue at roughly 44% per year through 2028, while earnings should grow even faster as margins expand. Yet despite that growth profile, the company is currently trading at only ~4x our 2028 earnings estimate, with the potential to deliver a dividend yield approaching 10% on today’s purchase price if management executes on its stated payout policy.

What makes this opportunity even more compelling is that the business combines:

* Founder-led management with strong alignment.
* A vertically integrated model that gives it structurally higher margins than peers.
* Significant barriers to entry and multiple long-term growth drivers.
* A much higher-quality business than comparable companies, yet trading at a meaningful valuation discount.
* A business model that we believe is considerably less cyclical than the market currently assumes.

Over the past weeks we’ve aggressively built a large position, because we believe the current valuation materially underestimates both the quality of the business and its earnings power over the next several years. If the company simply executes on its existing project pipeline, we think the market will eventually be forced to recognize that disconnect.

The full deep dive is now live on our Substack.

We cover the complete investment thesis, competitive advantages, valuation model, key risks, management incentives, and detailed return scenarios explaining why we believe this is one of the best risk/reward opportunities we currently see anywhere in the market.

Link is in the bio.

[Arborator Capital Research @AC__research]

🚀 Our first deep-dive on Substack is finally live!

We decided to start with our largest portfolio position — $212A.T #212A (FitEasy).

In our opinion, it’s one of the most mispriced small caps we’ve found globally, and we believe it has the potential for more than 100 % return over the next 2–3 years if the business continues executing as we expect.

📖 Read the full write-up here:

https://t.co/5ZQxAPNNel

Compared with the X thread, the Substack version includes an updated valuation model, cleaner formatting and a more detailed explanation of our investment thesis.

A huge thank you to everyone who has already read and shared it.

Since publishing the write-up, FitEasy has gained another ~10%, accompanied by noticeably higher trading volumes. We’re glad the company is reaching a wider audience and, more importantly, we continue to believe the investment thesis is playing out.

At the same time, $SMSH.TA (Smart Shooter) has also appreciated by more than 10% since we first shared our research. Together with FitEasy, these remain our two highest-conviction positions today.

We’re currently working on several additional deep dives covering what we believe are highly asymmetric investment opportunities across different sectors and regions.

Thanks to the recent performance of these positions, my personal portfolio has now surpassed +80% YTD.

Hopefully that’s only the beginning. We look forward to sharing many more ideas with you over the coming months.

[Danny @wallstdanny]

@thaAdamLittle spill the tea

[Danny @wallstdanny]

@shomikghosh21 the NRR is incredible

[Danny @wallstdanny]

$VHI.TO keeps executing

[Danny @wallstdanny]

@SimeonResearch_ @stonkmetal Agree with $VHI.TO

Here's my writeup from a year ago: https://t.co/EZh5QJBR5E

[Danny @wallstdanny]

@SuperMarius19 @DVolkind https://t.co/AWZByM9nVr

[Danny @wallstdanny]

So it begins

[bargainbinstocks @bargainbinstock]

Wow. $CPH.TO is seeking NASDAQ listing in the near future and seeking to make this a US based operation.

[Danny @wallstdanny]

New acquisition announced today, should double (!) Cipher’s revenue and earnings

Noteworthy is also the acquired team of 50 US salespeople, possibly opening up a way to sell more products in this huge market

$CPH.TO up 22% today and 178% since my writeup :

[Danny @wallstdanny]

The $CPH.TO thesis is playing out really well, today hitting +100% since my writeup

However, there is still enormous potential in case the pipeline products get approved (which is quite likely imo)

[Danny @wallstdanny]

@vardevalpen @capitalemployed @ElementaryValue @dirtcheapstocks I think it would trade at a much higher multiple if it werent so small

[Danny @wallstdanny]

So many Polish stocks out there that are growing sales >20% yet trade at damn low multiples

[Danny @wallstdanny]

@ReaperCapital @CCM_Brett how did you combine them?

[Danny @wallstdanny]

@IrrationalMrkts What you're describing is exactly what happened at $DRX.TO ... hopefully atlas can achieve the same

[Uzo @Uzocapital]

$HQI - CEO buying shares....largest purchase since IPO and first in 9 months - comes alongside commentary at Q1 that end markets are stabilising and (workers comp) cost headwinds are reversing. I suspect this is the inflection point - in this growth cyclical.

[Danny @wallstdanny]

@horacekpetr22 @SpiciPes @xtbczsk @Vojtech_Cernyy @HejToJeMara @KylarMartin @George_12315 @Miroslavtepnek1 @michalkacafirek @MLolfos @MScurka Diky za zminku!

[Danny @wallstdanny]

@ToffCap $HQI

[Danny @wallstdanny]

@microcapmindset 👌

[Danny @wallstdanny]

Did someone say portfolio concentration??

$DRX.TO

[Danny @wallstdanny]

The fact that you can own stakes in the best businesses in the world by simply pressing a button on your phone is just insane

[Sidecar Investor @sidecarcap]

The ability to partner with exceptional operators will always blow my mind.

With the push of a button, investors could get the return Buffett generated for himself at $BRK.

This is like becoming part Lebron James, not just watching him.