Aubrey

(they/them) • Meteorology student at Mississippi State University • tracking extreme weather and climate 🌪️ 🌡️ 🔥 ❄️ 🌊

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

Multiple stations under this weekend's heat dome have broken daily record highs, and three have tied/broken all-time record highs! 🌡️☀️

• Glendive, MT: 110° (record: 108° in 2024)
• Sheridan, WY: 107° (record: 107° in 2021)
• Cody, WY: 107° (record: 102° in 2021)

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

Various models continue to hint at tropical development along the northern Gulf Coast.

Intensity will be limited by short time over water and increasing wind shear after Sunday. An East Coast track would provide more time over water and slightly more favorable shear.

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@Brady_Wx @StormNetWx Ahh cool, that’s partly what I was curious about. Thanks!

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@amarkowitzWX If they can get going, smoke is shown to enhance thunderstorm updrafts (Zhang et al. 2019). The aerosols allow smaller drops to form, which are lighter and carried higher in the thunderstorm than larger drops. This enhances precipitation rate, lightning, and hail size.

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@MattHoenigWx @Goatness77 Yes, for sure! Right now, I'm just expecting slightly stronger storms that can carry that momentum with them slightly further south than currently-defined SPC risk areas.

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@MattHoenigWx @Goatness77 Smoke does limit heating, but it's also shown to enhance thunderstorm updrafts (Zhang et al. 2019). The aerosols allow smaller drops to form, which are lighter and carried higher in the thunderstorm than larger drops. This enhances precipitation rate, lightning, and hail size.

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@ryanhaaswx That red dot is the sun?! So tiny!

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@StarInBoxWx Wildfire smoke has been shown to enhance thunderstorm updrafts (Zhang et al. 2019). The aerosols allow smaller drops to form, which are lighter and carried higher in the thunderstorm than larger drops. This enhances precipitation rate, lightning, and hail size.

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

This morning's thunderstorms can already be seen mingling with smoke. #Smoke #Severe

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

Canadian wildfire smoke will interact with the severe storms across Canada and northern New England tonight. 🔥

The addition of condensation nuclei has been shown to enhance rainfall rates, lightning, and hail production by transporting supercooled water to higher altitudes. ⚡️

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@willbrattonwx @MatthewCappucci Lithometeors is a fire word (no pun intended)

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@willbrattonwx https://t.co/KL5RkJYmGA

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

Canadian wildfire smoke will interact with the severe storms across Canada and northern New England tonight. 🔥

The addition of condensation nuclei has been shown to enhance rainfall rates, lightning, and hail production by transporting supercooled water to higher altitudes. ⚡️

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@MaxVelocityWX Wildfire smoke has been shown to enhance thunderstorm updrafts (Zhang et al. 2019). The aerosols allow smaller drops to form, which are lighter and carried higher in the thunderstorm than larger drops. This enhances precipitation rate, lightning, and hail size.

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

Wildfire smoke and...
Tornadoes: (Saide et al. 2015) https://t.co/ASv7TM5eJQ
Hailstones and Lightning:
(Zhang et al. 2019) https://t.co/xLu2mXy71r
(Zhang et al. 2022) https://t.co/a1ezLueQHh

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

Canadian wildfire smoke will interact with the severe storms across Canada and northern New England tonight. 🔥

The addition of condensation nuclei has been shown to enhance rainfall rates, lightning, and hail production by transporting supercooled water to higher altitudes. ⚡️

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

An enhanced plume of Canadian wildfire smoke 🔥will drift into the Northeastern U.S. through the day on Tuesday, bringing hazy skies and poor air quality to the region. #Smoke #Wildfire

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

Even more records falling, including plenty of all-time record highs. Dangerous heat!

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

Multiple stations under this weekend's heat dome have broken daily record highs, and three have tied/broken all-time record highs! 🌡️☀️

• Glendive, MT: 110° (record: 108° in 2024)
• Sheridan, WY: 107° (record: 107° in 2021)
• Cody, WY: 107° (record: 102° in 2021)

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@WxcenterNazario The AI ECMWF first picked up on this, and it did very well with Arthur in a similar setup. Now that other models are coming on board, I feel somewhat confident despite still being several days out.

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@lorigracewx This thing is HUGE! It's incredibly pretty with the pinkish sky behind, too

[Aubrey @weatheraub]

@project_otus Top 5 tornado videos of all time