Wick Daily

Crypto, US stocks and macro, fast. What moved, why, what to watch. Not financial advice.

[Wick Daily @WickDaily]

MON is 28 days from its biggest test 👀

Coinbase’s first token sale. $2.5B valuation. Now it trades below the ICO price, and 16.6B tokens unlock Nov 24.

Hold or exit? https://t.co/uQZ6d1dbxO

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Nasdaq futures fell about 2% overnight. AMD rose about 4%.

Same sector, opposite direction. The election explains one number. Earnings explain the other.

Democrats were projected to win the House, and the odds of a Senate flip jumped. The biggest moves came from Tokyo, where the AI supply chain trades overnight. The Nikkei fell 3.1%, SoftBank about 7%, memory maker Kioxia about 10%.

Why chips and not everything?

The AI trade is a bet on one thing: data centers keep getting built at full speed. And data centers just became an election issue.

→ US home electricity prices are up more than 10% since 2024
→ PJM's market monitor ties about $7.3B in extra capacity charges this year to data-center demand. Households pay part of that.
→ 570+ local bans, zoning limits or moratoriums across 46 states

Democrats ran on that. On the table: make data centers pay for their own power and grid upgrades, cut their tax breaks, pause new approvals in some states.

None of that cancels AI. It makes every new data center slower and more expensive. Fewer megawatts online means fewer chips ordered. Chip stocks price years of future orders, so they get hit first.

So why did AMD go up? It reported. Data-center sales hit $8.5B, up 97% in a year, and it guided about $17B for Q4. Real orders beat political risk, at least for one night.

My take: the market is pricing a slower buildout, not the end of it. The number to watch isn't the Senate count. It's whether Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta stick to their 2027 spending plans on their next earnings calls.

Is the AI trade a political trade now? Yes or no.

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@andyyy Fed's pain threshold might be lower than people think

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@PeterBerezinBCA surprised bonds aren't reacting more to this

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@HodlMagoo The market loves to price in the worst-case scenario when uncertainty is high. But the best returns often come when reality turns out less bad than everyone expected.

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@biancoresearch The market might be pricing in more than election results here. AI infrastructure needs power, land and regulatory certainty. If Texas becomes less predictable for data center construction, that's a much bigger story for the AI trade.

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@martypartymusic even if the attack was sophisticated, shouldn't the whole point of wallet architecture be that one compromise can't expose billions?

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@LeonWaidmann This is the part of tokenization people might be underestimating. It's not just bringing traditional assets onchain, it's bringing an entirely new group of users into the ecosystem 👍

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@0xrachelita Mine are buy/high unfortunately 😂

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@SujalJethwani AI tools are becoming part of the attack surface. I think the industry is still catching up to that reality

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@CNBC A result like this could reshape how both parties think about the Sun Belt. Texas may not be as predictable as they once assumed

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@spencernoon I think we're overcomplicating this. Ethereum already has the infrastructure, liquidity, and adoption to justify a much higher valuation. The problem might be that the market still doesn't fully understand how to value what it has built.

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@DeItaone we will see if that holds when the results come in

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@FT the usual red-state, blue-state divide ain't telling the whole story anymore

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@Forbes Imagine trying to write laws for something that changes every few months

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@WuBlockchain @cipherstein Funny hearing a former exchange hacker explain how to catch hackers 💀

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@AnnaEconomist Something doesn't quite add up between the growth fears and that 10Y yield

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@Polymarket Volatility season is officially back!

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@CastilloTrading ETH really needs to make up its mind here 💀

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@Barchart another day, another bloodbath

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@WSJ Cost of living remains a powerful political force. Voters may debate policies, but their everyday expenses often have the final say.