@ClimateRisks

Professor studying risk and disaster in a changing climate

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@NWSBoulder Some green from Gunbarrel Hill

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@BoulderCAST Moderate thunder snow on Gun Barrel Hill, Boulder county.

[Lisa Dilling @LisaD144]

So excited to share our new paper on adaptive capacity, adaptation, and transformation in large U.S. water systems! With @daly_meaghan @olwilhelmi Andrea Ray William Travis. @wwanews @ciresnews @CUBoulderENVS A short thread on the highlights: (1) https://t.co/KSden6ww6y

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@WasatchSnow Thanks for letting some of that sneak over to the lee side of the Rockies!

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@AltYelloNatPark Stumbled on a few of these over the years, including the loops and campsites of the old CG on the lake shore at Fishing Bridge.

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@ProfessorPowder I do miss my 1970s grad sch stint skiing the Wasatch (except frustrating search for skiable snow in 76/77).

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@NWSBoulder A good 2023 to NWS Boulder, and thanks for the thoughtful forecast discussions. 12/28/22 4:46 AM was a model of greatly improved forecast skill and remainng, maybe irreducible, uncertainty.

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@BoulderCAST Despite great forecast skill increase across the board over the decades I've followed, sensible wx in some cases still down to chaotic processes. NWS BOU discusion 446 am Wed 12/28/22 is thoughtful expression of this.

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@R_EricKuhn 1983 was a notable compound of CRB conditions: wet fall, full soil mositure (difficult then to asses in predictions), large snowpack, rapid spring melt. Maybe not the rain-on-snow that exacerbated Yellowstone floods. Reservoir/dam challenge at Glenn Canyon similar to Oroville.

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@YellowstoneNPS Looks like Soda Butte Creek. Hope everyone is safe!

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@DianaLiv @cCHANGE_OBrien Diana, you've been an inpiration to me and my students going on five decades, in global change, hazards, equity and much more! Eager to hear what's next.

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

Combined with previous work on Risky Development https://t.co/YpFx33tYxD showing denser development in fire hazard zones, this suggests that worst fire disasters yet to come. #expandingbullseye

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

Think wildfires are worsening? Our paper out in Science Advances shows US wildfires more frequent & larger since 2000 with extreme fires more likely to co-occur in time & space. Fires also spreading into new landscapes. #wildfire
https://t.co/BnGIlsb2LS

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

Yellowstone Lake from Lake Ranger Station beach; at night. Thanks for preserving dark skies! #YNP150area #Yellowstone150

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@Weather_West A foretaste of this came in 1988 Yellowstone fires. After-action rpts & hearings record FBAs amazed at nighttime fire growth. Wind played a part. Wonder if nocturnal warming has slowed decoupling of the boundary layer?

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@jocewest Yes worth pointing out hazards emerge from interaction of the social and natural but the gov was alluding to the historic wind driven flame front that forced responders to attack indirectly when they wish they could stop it & save homes. I watched it advance a mile in a few min.

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@abamzaidodson @LisaD144 @McBadger22 Undergorunding was examined hard after Quebec's catastrophic 1998 ice storm. The Nicolet Commission recommended it. I took a look back for an article on climate adaptation https://t.co/AOdIiwCtA9
and found that the system was mostly rebuilt as was--too expensive and impractical.

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@wyomingdoc Why Wyoming has its own snow fence design
https://t.co/IwWU6wpDRH

[@ClimateRisks @william70911178]

@BassisJeremy A useful take on adaptaton DM. Decision analysis often shows that uncertainty in adaptation: what, when, how much, how effective, even possible? is underappreciated in focus on nailing down future conditions. Type III error: asking the wrong q.