Dear crypto participants
I know all seems fucked and and maybe your down bad this cycle
But let me just ease your mind
A little exp of mine this cycle and how to use it
1. Start the cycle early with BTC
I know I know.. BTC is boring and is delivering shit gains.. right?
No man, wrong, that is your shitcoin dealer/scam influencer telling you that and you need to hold alts to outperform
But remember: if BTC doesn’t pump, NOTHING pumps!
So next cycle be early BTC (and maybe some ETH) - I did it back in December 2022 with 80% of my cash
2. Don’t rush to buy alts!!
Rotation happens slowly, some of the alts will pump with BTC, but the majority won’t!!
You still would be better with BTC remaining the major after 2-3x the price - I’m telling you from experience - some alts would pop, some narratives would catch up like memes, you would feel stupid for not catching those, and then you would try to catch up and ignore 2.
3. Respect your positioning!!
BTC should remain the major for at least 2 years after bear lows
That means 50-80% of your portfolio
Use 20-30% to choose 2-3 large caps with chart history, not new shinny stuff that you don’t know anything about - but remember not to rush! This should happen 6-12 months after bear lows
Most important: use not more than 10-15% on low/mid caps, new shinny things, memes, speculation
Whatever shitty project in this category does 100x (which you won’t ever know), it brings your 10% to 20-30% - THEN YOU TRIM IT DOWN to 10-15% again
Happened for me, this is the way to do 100x, not with 80% of your portfolio!!!
Not all projects would do great stuff, but this formula is guaranteed to not lose you money - which is key in markets in general
One of my big alts went -50% extra while others like CRV LINK JASMY VELO etc went 5-10-15x - which exploded my second position after BTC - THEN I TRIMMED IT cause it was messing my positioning again
This is how to respect your positioning
Now, in the final year of the bull, I am 40% BTC and 60% ALTS (big alts, not your favorite shinny meme) - this is my crypto positioning
But my general positioning is also composed of being 20% in cash and growing that cash into start of 2026
Sold 80-90% of my stocks, mostly BTC miners, already, that was a different play. After seeing 15-25-50x you have no business remaining in that position
But again, I am respecting my positioning and you can see that I lean heavier this year on some alts (if you watch my YT channel you already know)
4. You made mistakes?
I also made them back in last cycle, and if you wanna repair them, you can only do it from next cycle - I’M TELLING YOU FROM EXPERIENCE
You could try right to do it now, but that means you have no plan, you keep adding to losers, keep trying to make all back with leverage, basically doing all the mistakes you can while you don’t get anywhere
So better prepare for next cycle, use this 1-2-3 formula, and that is how you repair what you did this cycle! What you have right now you just leave it to fate, and you prepare for what comes next
Market is forward looking, you should be too. Look only thru the rearview mirror to see and not repeat past mistakes
Re-read this post and always remember!
I’m cheering for you🫡
All the QE/QT/SOFR/repo stuff that's happening now is basically just like back in 2019, except now the Fed has a standing repo facility.
Both times, a rapid TGA refill was a big catalyst.
I have an explainer thread on the 2019 repo spike below, from back when it was happening.
The macro legend @RaoulGMI's Sui Basecamp speech was pure Alpha
He laid out the most bullish case for crypto I've ever seen
It changes EVERYTHING about how you should position for the next 12 months
10 staggering revelations: 🧵
2 years ago, I went bankrupt and had to visit Tibet.
Everything has changed after a local shaman opened my eyes.
He analyzed my sign to reveal my strengths. Since then, I've made over $1.5M!
That's what he told me about other signs: Scorpios are good at...
"2024: Everyone is wrong in the market"
This is my mid 2024 market view, into 2025, and we will talk about: Bitcoin, S&P500, DXY, FED rates and the potential recession that should come
If you don't know my January 2024 outlook, here's a link, go check it out:
https://t.co/LKZ1dngjO1
In there you will see my first S&P500 target of $5500 reached, and also Bitcoin's new all time high before the halving, and today we'll update that outlook to see where we are in the market for the next 6-12 months
This is a serious post, and later on I shall return to my trolling bears posts, slashing them open and making fun of them, because being a bear is not profitable unless you find a small window of opportunity - which we shall discuss also
Hint: it's smaller than any bear's wife's pussy, but still bigger than any bear's penis
Enough! Let's begin!
1. S&P500 index & FED Rates
Ahh, a story as old as time, or a bear's insuccess
FED Rates are a lagging indicator to know how hot the markets are, but still they give a pretty good tell for when there will be problems.
a) September 2007: after 1 year of maintaining rates at 525 bps, we have the first cut, and after 5 more cuts, market was still pretty hot, no sign of recession and big drawdowns.
After those 6 cuts, the soft landing narrative installs - "market no dump bro, we fine, we bid"
Soft landing meant 2-3 FOMC where FED maintained rates again - THIS IS WHERE PROBLEMS START!
During the entire period of cuts, then soft landing - 9 months in total - market remained HOT
b) July 2019: after 6 months of maintaining rates at 250 bps, we have the first cut, and 2 cuts after (Sept and Nov 2019)
After those 3 cuts, soft landing narrative and 2 FOMCs with no rate cuts: Dec & Jan - and big problems in March, 3rd FOMC that brought rates to zero-ish
My guess: this time is not different
Right now we have September 2024 for first rate cut (makes sense after 1y of maintaining rates, just like 2007 high rates of 525 bps, and now 550 bps)
We should have 3-5 rate cuts, which could mean Sept to January-March time, then some soft landing narrative for 2-3 FOMCs with rates maintained, then a global event, again.
SPX up target is $6000ish, down target is $3500+
See my original January 2024 market view, with just the timeline that is different. So basically we could get an extended period of time to reach my targets.
Next up...
2. DXY
Nothing changed on my DXY view, just the timing. Period 3 should come after the "soft landing" narrative, that means the $ printer machine would go berserk like no other time in American history
The Dollar would find its way thru the global economy much easier, much faster, thanks to stablecoins, but this also means double digit inflation on the next wave, 2026+
This would take US assets to a parabolic mania, until end of decade - check my #roaringtwenties posts
3. Bitcoin (& crypto)
Based on the short experience with FED rates, maybe this time could be different (Wall Street owned)
a) 2019 July first cut: as consensus hit the market, euphoria installed, BTC going from 7400$ to 14000$ in a matter of weeks
But then had a downtrend until the soft landing narrative, which meant a last drink before the pandemic war (global event, just like GFC in 2008)
Being a speculative 100 bill $ asset, after the first rate cut, its price action failed to follow the S&P, but that could be different today
b) September 2024 first rate cut: this could differ (maybe we get a July or Nov/December cut, we would update plan later), but we play the hand we're dealt
Either scenario 1 or 2 in play, we're missing a leg up to 90-100k, as euphoria should set in to complete this mid or complete cycle (we will find out later and will update market view)
What I really don't know is if the downtrend after rate cuts is happening this time, ETFs and Wall Street, and the fact that we're at 12x the market cap for BTC as an asset, which makes it nonspeculative
Which could mean that Scenario 2 is in play, so no downtrend until "soft landing" - we shall see
This means that altcoins should have big rallies, as
time is more important than price
In 2019 for reference, we had almost no time in the market, as in half of 2022 + 2/3 of 2023, so almost no gains in the altcoin market, but...
Time > price! More time and price not moving, more agressive pumps later
1.4 trillion $ is my next target before we can talk about trend change, just as BTC next leg up, and maybe an 120-170k extended leg to complete the cycle
This could lead to a left translated cycle, but we will see, because the next major printing after the "soft landing narrative" means that scarce asset pump hardest and longest.
Just give a follow @ChifoiCristian and stay tuned, it doesn't cost anything.
We shall bathe in the blood of our bears and after they're dead, we shall wear their pelts, imbearsonating them to be aware of the next global event after the "soft landing"
Hazzah!
I shall pin this shit onto my profile
Since he was just returning from surgeries, we had to take his workouts slow on his lower body. Focused on upper more, whilst only adding few exercises for his legs.
He used to work Morning 8 AM - 9 PM (transit included)
Only time possible for him was mornig 530 - 630. He did it. Consistently without a word of excuse.
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