yankatch

Codex @ OpenAI

[yankatch @yankatch]

The reality is that advanced agentic capabilities are not yet meeting the consumer where they are at. Our tools are so optimized for the developer and knowledge worker (or for booking a flight or managing your calendar/email/Slack... XD ).

AI bots (Dots/Muse/Grok Bot), need to understand an average person's motivations and needs. We need frameworks and tools for this context elicitation.

I got a chance to briefly discuss AI adoption and good-for-the-world with @sama a few days ago. Perhaps this is the path.

More thoughts on this here:

https://t.co/lz1xupbpfI

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.

- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.

The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.

So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.

[yankatch @yankatch]

I’ve been in shock with how this is able to read my mind.. it even uses my writing style

[OpenAI Developers @OpenAIDevs]

Now in beta: composer predictions in Codex for Pro users.

Codex can now suggest your next message based on your conversation and how you talk to it.

One of the most loved new features we've ever tested internally.

[yankatch @yankatch]

And we’re working to make it better every day!

[Tibo @thsottiaux]

Day 3 (encore)/

We silently re-shipped codex cloud. It’s pretty good now

[yankatch @yankatch]

@RLPCFelix @OpenAI Just DMed you. I can investigate this issue directly and see what’s going on

[yankatch @yankatch]

@Adam_B_Long @thsottiaux Hey Adam, thanks for your feedback. We'll ship this soon! working on it :)

[yankatch @yankatch]

@lassejv Hey, sorry to hear that and thank you for your feedback. We're working hard to make it faster asap!

[Thomas Ricouard @Dimillian]

We launched our all-new Codex Cloud at DevDay. You can now create reusable environments, and it means you can always have online hosts regardless of whether your laptop is closed or not! I've been using it a ton lately. Internally we called the launch: Freedom day!

[yankatch @yankatch]

Want a Model Y... Have a very tight garage.
Scanned the space with my phone, then had Codex reconstruct it, model both Teslas, and simulate the working exit paths

[yankatch @yankatch]

Hold on.. 6.1 Sol is actually insanely efficient. Even on Extra High.

[yankatch @yankatch]

@thsottiaux Dev Day? More like Dev Month

[yankatch @yankatch]

@Heaney555 @thsottiaux I see what you mean. You’d like this feature for the purpose of grouping threads, or being always to start out of a specific repo?

[yankatch @yankatch]

@cameronuwuu @thsottiaux Yikes sorry about that! Could you hit /feedback and send me the output?

[yankatch @yankatch]

@ak_kim0 @pvncher @simonw Will add that. We’re working on both!

[yankatch @yankatch]

LFG

[Tibo @thsottiaux]

All right, we’re locking in. Only things being worked on are simplifications, more efficiency for more usage, groundbreaking features or new models.

Sometimes you have to invest ahead of the curve, but feedback is clear that you all want things to get simpler. On it.

[yankatch @yankatch]

@scottcorgan Hey Scott, thanks for your feedback! We'll investigate the Codex threads on mobile. Regarding cloud threads stopping - is this on the "Base Environment" on mobile?

[yankatch @yankatch]

@KristijanCrnjak @thsottiaux Hey! Thank you for your feedback. Current Cloud VMs live for 7 days since your last message, but you can use an automation to keep it alive

[yankatch @yankatch]

@HoYeung62541 @thsottiaux Hey there! You should be able to do both things you mentioned, would you be able to share a screenshot of what you're seeing?

[yankatch @yankatch]

@bee_human_ @thsottiaux Hey Ben! Would you be able to share what you tried and didn't work? Cloud threads have access to your other chats and memories

[yankatch @yankatch]

@vivanpadiyath @thsottiaux Hey Vivan, thanks for reporting this. I'll submit the feedback!