Zero Tangent

cryptocurrency and stock analysis. Not financial advice

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

buying more $wallet on the robinhood blockchain today. the skitzo breadcrumbs are too good to pass up

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

robinhood chain takes me back to the good old days. no bundles no KOLs no bullshit .

current holds:
$wallet
$wishbone
$ranger

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

👀

[CCIPMetrics @CCIPMetrics]

#CCIP today
Value transferred: $26,814,955.6
Top sent token: $syrupUSDC @maplefinance: $7,746,833.8 (28.9%)
Transactions: 2,983
Fees: $11,421.4
Top sender: @Predictstreet: Tx: 948 (31.8%), Fees: $9,852.2 (86.3%)

Pools open. Stake your LINK today at https://t.co/yhMFfpGi0K

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

hello ? based department ??

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

1 in 3 men aged 20 and older are neither working nor looking for a job in the US, per WSJ

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

Soon the spice will flow in earnest. It will all look extremely obvious in hindsight but most do not use their eyes to see. ethereum:0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

closed all hyperliquid tactical long trades. i do expect us to get a small weekend dip. just enough to punish late longs and gives bears a glimmer of hope before the next leg up

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

anyone else seeing these huge wicks on $ETH ?? 😮

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

not saying i can predict the future but what does it tell you if everyone and their mother expect another weekend escalation along with a spike in oil. the markets have a way of humbling the consensus view

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

oil and defense stocks look played out . trimmed positions and bought airlines for a reversal play #nfa

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

signal over noise. if you are not following this page you should

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️Ground troops mean failure.

That is the signal.

If they have to put Americans on that coastline, it means the cheap-control model broke. It means bombing, escorts, mine clearing, reserve releases, corridor signaling, and all the rest failed to make Hormuz usable enough. At that point the war stops being about restoring flow and becomes about physically inheriting responsibility for the artery.

No one in Washington wants that.

The real objective is simpler. Make the corridor usable enough that markets calm, tankers move, insurers come back, and Trump can say the war is ending without owning Iran’s coast. That is the whole game. They do not need perfect safety. They need restored function. Those are very different thresholds.

So the internal read is clear.

They want a dirty reopening.
They want traffic moving under fear.
They want enough normalcy to break the oil panic.
They want to avoid the political poison of a ground commitment.

That is what is actually being pursued.

Ground troops only become real if Iran keeps proving that every lighter tool can be punctured. Mines, coastal harassment, repeated resets of confidence, corridors that look open on paper and unusable in practice. If that keeps happening, the pressure rises. But even then, the desire will still be to find some coercive halfway house before stepping onto that coast.

So the straight answer is:

Ground troops are the nightmare branch.
They are not the intended branch.
They become live only if the United States cannot make Hormuz feel commercially usable by any other means.

The coldest compression is this:

They want the water.
They do not want the coast.
If they take the coast, the war already got bigger than they wanted.

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

$SOL honorable mention for owning a piece of the shit coin casino

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

$LINK for the institutional exposure
$XMR for true cyberpunk ethos exposure
$NEET for the global unemployment zeitgeist

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

when large entities are done accumulating crypto will fly. the price suppression will not exist in perpetuity

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: Jane Street bought 7,105,206 $IBIT shares worth $276 million in Q4 2025.

It now holds 20,315,780 IBIT shares worth $790 million.

This is the same entity rumoured to be behind the daily “10 AM” manipulation to push Bitcoin prices lower.

[5.0 INVERTED.BULL 🙃 @5_0Trading]

LINK Liquidation Heatmap

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

some day this bear market is gonna end

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

@altcoinpediax $83K up next

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

$BTC bears are in TROUBLE if they can't meaningfully push the price down in the short term. this is shaping up to be a higher low and then we LAUNCH

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

good context on yesterday's price action. big buyers stepping in last night showed this may be the end of the move. carefully monitoring

[Parker @TheOtherParker_]

This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) + the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit.

If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT (I like whalewisdom dot com), you'll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn't have claim to any other assets.

Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK.

We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace.

This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT.

The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund.

Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the "obvious" rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off.

I have no hard evidence here, just some hunches and bread crumbs, but it does seem very plausible. Let's see if some more concrete evidence floats to the surface here soon. The smoking gun will be a large fund fitting this profile filing a 13F showing a giant IBIT holding going to zero. Unfortunately, if a fund had their IBIT position liquidated today, they wouldn't have to disclose the position change until 45 days after the quarter end, so we'd be looking at mid May for the smoking gun from 13F filings most likely.

Hopefully some of you out there with too much time on your hands this weekend can snoop around more. My guess is that word will start to get out, because something of this size is just too hard to hide. Additionally, if the broker was not able to liquidate the fund in time, the broker may have a hole in their balance sheet, which would be even more difficult to hide.

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

bears have had it easy for too long. the incoming short squeeze will be biblical $BTC

[Zero Tangent @zero_tangent]

@nicucrypto the silver lining is that it "should" hold here as prior resistance becomes support