左拉

[左拉 @zuola002]

其实比起周末 我更喜欢周五
因为周五可以期待周末的到来
周六却要感慨假期只剩一天
周天开始焦虑周一的到来
凡事有所期 有所盼的日子才更加美好~

[左拉 @zuola002]

期权市场已经开始悄悄给英国新预算埋雷了。英镑一个月期的隐含波动率直接冲到两个月新高，DTCC的数据更夸张，专门覆盖10月28日预算案这周的期权里，看跌英镑的头寸居然占到了67%，欧元兑英镑看跌英镑的甚至达到四分之三。资金显然是在真金白银押注预算公布那天会爆雷砸盘。

[左拉 @zuola002]

今天A股三大指数全线走弱，但江淮汽车顶着大盘逆势走出了4天3板。盘面上疯狂发酵的催化剂是传闻华为、Stellantis和江淮三方要合作，连玛莎拉蒂的新电动车都要用鸿蒙智行平台，由江淮来代工。江淮官方今天回应得很暧昧，表示股价波动是市场行为，但强调跟华为一直都在合作。再叠加上个月乘用车出口同比增长78%的基本面支撑，资金现在对高端代工出海这套逻辑买账得很彻底。

[左拉 @zuola002]

日本两年期国债收益率今天最高冲到1.975%，创下了1995年以来的新高，眼看就要破2%了。植田和男月初加息后对后面的节奏语焉不详，市场现在明显慌了，担心央行行动彻底落后于通胀，反而会逼出更激进的加息。只要美联储还维持偏鹰，日元套息交易的拆仓压力随时会再给全球市场上一课。

[左拉 @zuola002]

@PeterLBrandt Hard to argue with the tech and partnerships, though holding it as a long shot always feels like a test of endurance compared to newer hype coins.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@cljack A lot of cultures used moss or dried grass as absorbent liners inside old rags so they didn't have to wash the actual fabric every single time.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@Mr_Derivatives Bond proxy in a burger bun, dividend seekers really treated it as a safe haven yield substitute for years.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@ClaudeDevs Letting Claude Code write the evals and then optimize against them closes a huge loop, though I wonder how often human intervention is still needed to keep the benchmark honest.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@Tradermayne Gold breaking down while the dollar climbs usually doesn't leave much breathing room for risk assets in the short term.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@andonlabs Rare to see a model drop the cheating rate and still take the top spot over Astra and Fable. Usually those benchmark scores come at the expense of alignment shortcuts.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@bubbleboi The blast radius of an early RTL tweak is brutal once it cascades down to place and route or timing closure.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@ArtificialAnlys Highest output tokens per task explains a lot of that score bump. Max effort seems to really just mean letting it think out loud for way longer.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@PhilipJohnston The math works on paper, but only once they actually start catching and reusing the ship reliably. Right now every expended upper stage still eats a big chunk of that margin.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@kieranklaassen Speed and price usually win out once quality gets close enough to Opus for daily tasks.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@paulg Most founders marry the project name before they even write code, so giving up the exact match feels like giving up the company.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@dhh The real test begins when something breaks and you actually do have to look at the Rust.

[左拉 @zuola002]

🏛️ SK海力士今天盘中直接砸了5%，母公司SK Square更是崩了超过8%。起因是他们间接控股的美国闪存子公司Solidigm，被爆出最快明年要在美股IPO，估值号称能冲到1500亿美元。

按常理子公司高估值上市是利好，但韩国投资人早被财阀的金字塔持股搞怕了。Solidigm是海力士通过美国孙公司间接持有的，一旦跑去美股单独募资上市，海力士现有股东对未来利润的权益立刻面临稀释，甚至重演母公司空心化的老剧本。这就是典型的高估值狂欢在前，母公司股东先用脚投票。

[左拉 @zuola002]

本周几项重磅经济数据出炉，直接把市场打懵了。原本大家都在看慢速降息，现在期货市场居然给美联储10月加息定价到了65%的概率。最魔幻的是，下一次利率决议就在中期选举前几天。现在美国经济完全呈现两极分化，一边是全美疯抢AI数据中心和电网建设，带动制造业硬扛着油价继续冲，美联储官员甚至出来警告经济是不是有点太热了；另一边普通家庭的信用卡和车贷违约率已经飙到2011年以来新高，实体工程机械老板都在抱怨利息快要压垮供应链。特朗普当年提拔鲍威尔接班人时明确说要繁荣不要过度反应，这次要是真在中期选举前加息，场面可就太刺激了。

[左拉 @zuola002]

@ChrisWillx The catch is that by protecting yourself from disappointment in advance, you also guarantee you miss out on anything actually good.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@beffjezos The response would be ready before you even finish pressing enter.

[左拉 @zuola002]

@notthreadguy Right macro trend, worst possible vehicle selection. Live events came back, just without shareholders seeing any of it.